In The News

[Devonian]

Can't be bothered arguing this point again. As far as I'm concerned if anyone wants to argue that record heat is meaningful, then the same people have to accept record cold has the same standard of importance; historically on this forum, record cold events have been dismissed out of hand. You can't have it both ways.

Who is denying any record, cold or warm? I'm certainly not. But I am interested in context, and it is at least notable to have so many series records (temperature series of at least 100 years length) in one year.

Would it not be notable if 18 countries had their coldest ever recorded temperatures in one year? Especially as, prior to that, few record cold record were being set?

[VillagePlank]

Who is denying any record, cold or warm? I'm certainly not. But I am interested in context, and it is at least notable to have so many series records (temperature series of at least 100 years length) in one year.

Would it not be notable if 18 countries had their coldest ever recorded temperatures in one year? Especially as, prior to that, few record cold record were being set?

Of course, the records have been spatially, as well as temporally, adjusted. I mean, who would dare publish such stats if that wasn't the case ...

A case in point: my kitchen has a small area in it that is currently about 180C. Is it relevant?

EDIT: and we know it hasn't been adjusted because place names are listed.

Edited August 23, 2010 by VillagePlank

[Devonian]

Of course, the records have been spatially, as well as temporally, adjusted. I mean, who would dare publish such stats if that wasn't the case ...

A case in point: my kitchen has a small area in it that is currently about 180C. Is it relevant?

EDIT: and we know it hasn't been adjusted because place names are listed.

Point taken, but the record are from all over the globe - or, as Dr Masters reports "These nations comprise 19% of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth's surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record." Now, it might be the case such 19% things happen all the time but I, for one, am happy to take Dr Masters's word on this.

Edited August 23, 2010 by Devonian

[VillagePlank]

Point taken, but the record are from all over the globe - or, as Dr Masters reports "These nations comprise 19% of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth's surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record." Now, it might be the case such 19% things happen all the time but I, for one, am happy to take Dr Masters's word on this.

1/5th of the world really ain't that much. Since it could well be the case that 4/5ths are more important.

This is why Hadley's CRU series is important. I mean really important. To stop this sort of speculative nonsense.

[Devonian]

1/5th of the world really ain't that much. Since it could well be the case that 4/5ths are more important.

No, sorry VP, IMO you can't just dismiss this like that.

Why shouldn't I accept Dr Masters word? Do you know better? Do such records (absolute series high temperature records) over a fifth of the globe happen all the time? If so please show so and I will take YOUR word for it.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm happy to just have it appear significant to me? :winky:

1/5th of the world really ain't that much. Since it could well be the case that 4/5ths are more important.

They are if you're a fish.........

Edited August 23, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[Guest mycroft]

18 high record in one year compares with 13 in the years up to 1945?

They're not yearly records but records for the entire series?

Biscuits? C'mon, who's spinning what here?

Anyway, 30 years is a reasonable and well established climate definition. And it's that for good reason.

warming from 1900s- 1940s

cooling from 1940s- 1970s

warming from 1970s- 2000s

cooling from 2000s- 2030s

yes most concur, 30 year trends are a well established climate definition.

[VillagePlank]

No, sorry VP, IMO you can't just dismiss this like that.

Why shouldn't I accept Dr Masters word? Do you know better? Do such records (absolute series high temperature records) over a fifth of the globe happen all the time? If so please show so and I will take YOUR word for it.

You should take the word of whomever you see fit. You are in individual with inalienable rights. Please don't abuse them with ignorance.

Of course it;s very curious that you will take the spot temps against the properly augmented temps. That's something for you to figure out. I am not here to do your homework for you.

[Guest mycroft]

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global

July second warmest behind 98' and still top of the pile for the year so far!

We here a lot of talk about how 'cold' Russia is well the above draws that into sharp focus!

Yes a stuck blocked "HIGH" pattern and a jet stream looped far south, was'nt it.

Has happened in the past in Russia, quite few times as well.

Russia Today listed a series of these events in 1298, 1364, 1431 and 1735. The 1800′s saw five such events (1831, 1839-1841, 1868, 1875 and 1885). Prior modern events included those in 1917, 1930 and 1972.

[Devonian]

Yes a stuck blocked "HIGH" pattern and a jet stream looped far south, was'nt it.

Has happened in the past in Russia, quite few times as well.

Russia Today listed a series of these events in 1298, 1364, 1431 and 1735. The 1800′s saw five such events (1831, 1839-1841, 1868, 1875 and 1885). Prior modern events included those in 1917, 1930 and 1972.

Of the same magnitude? No they were not.

You should take the word of whomever you see fit. You are in individual with inalienable rights. Please don't abuse them with ignorance.

Of course it;s very curious that you will take the spot temps against the properly augmented temps. That's something for you to figure out. I am not here to do your homework for you.

Or, apparently, answer genuine questions in a debate with something better than ad hom?

[jethro]

How about every one stick to arguing about the topic in-hand, rather than with each other.

[Guest mycroft]

Of the same magnitude? No they were not.

Or, apparently, answer genuine questions in a debate with something better than ad hom?

i am still trying to find out,i take it you already know the answer, if so please enlighten us the less informed how you know this.

Edited August 24, 2010 by mycroft

[Devonian]

i am still trying to find out,i take it you already know the answer, if so please enlighten us the less informed how you know this.

Hey, one minute I'm being attacked for being not very smart, the next its for being too smart - there's no pleasing some people in 'Just can't win' land

Anyway, all I've done is followed other people's links to Dr Jeff Masters's blog. Here's what he said. and there is more in more recent entries.

[Gray-Wolf]

Well that all seems pretty cut and dried Dev. Mr Masters posts his links and makes sense of the scale of the event. I often tire of folk saying 'yes bit it happened before....' ......there were not 6.8billion folk alive before so the scale of human misery is comparable to population size surely?

The combination of increasing 'weather extremes' and growing global population makes for a poor outlook does it not?

[sunny starry skies]

Surely we've been here before - so far as I'm aware, 18 warm records in a single year is unprecedented, and a ratio of 18:1 is surely unprecedented. I'll be happy to see data that shows this not to be the case. I'm also happy to accept that the 19% land area is a bit of a red herring, when you have Russia and Palestine grouped together. But simply the number of national records provides an index suggesting that this year is remarkably warm. The year as a whole according to NCDC is on track to be the warmest on record, and as VP says, the calibrated measures such as CRU, GISS etc are more valuable than individual records. But a trend in regional or national records is simply a different measure of the warming - this time of the trend in extremes, rather than the trend in averages.

Speaking of trends, it hasn't been cooling since 2000. A trip over to woodfortrees.org will sort that one out for those who are unsure. All trends since 2000, 1995, 1990, 1985 etc are positive. We have not departed from a rising linear trend starting in the late 1970s - while there is no reason to suggest we must stay rigidly on that rising trend, so far we have, and that includes the last decade. The last 12 monts have been the hottest 12 month period on record too.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.biologicaldiversity.org/news/press_releases/2010/recovery-plans-08-12-2010.html

So how do we rationalise threats like this (above) The study ran from 75' until 08' and promises up to 60% of all species will fall to climate shift. We may not care for our 1 species but surely (as custodians of the planet) we owe a duty of care to other species?

[Guest mycroft]

Hey, one minute I'm being attacked for being not very smart, the next its for being too smart - there's no pleasing some people in 'Just can't win' land

Anyway, all I've done is followed other people's links to Dr Jeff Masters's blog. Here's what he said. and there is more in more recent entries.

I've not "attacked" anyone.And as i've said i am looking for more info on past events

calling it unique is a bit rich, as clearly it's happened many times before.Though this event

was servere and affected more people due to population increase and urban growth.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.nytimes.c...&pagewanted=all

I found this of interest.

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2010/08/30/100830fa_fact_mayer?currentPage=all

And this also (though quite a long read) about the U.S. Billionaires who bankroll the Denialist camp.

Strangely I fully agree with their take on adaptation? They are (strangely?) big on natural and not man made changes to climate but see the necessity to develop ways to 'roll with the punches' that climate throws at us.......

Much better than just shrugging shoulders and saying "it's all happened before...." when we owe our existance to past climate lurches that , at the same time, made our cousins go extinct.

Edited August 24, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[Devonian]

I've not "attacked" anyone.And as i've said i am looking for more info on past events

calling it unique is a bit rich, as clearly it's happened many times before.Though this event

was servere and affected more people due to population increase and urban growth.

If it's 'clearly happened many times before' perhaps you can enlighten those less informed than you as to when (the last time such a heat wave of the same magnitude or greater happened that is)?

[Gray-Wolf]

it'll be autumn before we even have an idea of the death toll (remember 03's tally?) of the Russian event. As for Pakistan/China? This years tally for weather related deaths will probably top the table (and 'yes' there are more people today than ever before but does that really mitigate things?)

[Guest mycroft]

If it's 'clearly happened many times before' perhaps you can enlighten those less informed than you as to when (the last time such a heat wave of the same magnitude or greater happened that is)?

Pehaps you could read my earlier post,then you would save time and stop making yourself look foolish.

Russia has not had one "as" severe as this as far i can see/find info yet.The only i can see and compare to this is Marble Bar Australia, theres a good article on the site WUWT as i am sure you are aware.

[Gray-Wolf]

Are you really comparing an Australian desert 'gold rush' town to Moscow (and are they????)

That's like comparing London to salt lake city and saying it's relevant surely?

Average summer temp in Moscow over summer around 20c, average for Marble bar 40c.....Der......

Put it another way , how many folk were impacted by temps being around 7c above normal for 160 days and how many folk did the Russian heatwave (20c above normal) impact (remember Moscow has 10 million folk there before you look at st petersburg etc) How used to drought conditions is Marble Bar and how used is Moscow?

Edited August 24, 2010 by Gray-Wolf

[Guest mycroft]

Are you really comparing an Australian desert 'gold rush' town to Moscow (and are they????)

That's like comparing London to salt lake city and saying it's relevant surely?

Average summer temp in Moscow over summer around 20c, average for Marble bar 40c.....Der......

i was asked what was on the magnatude as the Russian heatwave, Marble Bar is the only one i could find,

and as known is outstripps the Russian by far as would be expected with 160 days of temps well above

100f......But as you want relevant

Actually the average temp for Marblew Bar is 27.7C 82 F.......DER

average summer temp for moscow is 24 C 75 F.......DER

Average temp for salt lake city is 11.6 C 53 F.........DER

Average temp for london is 10.4C 51F........DER

Who's the DER now

when next running to the aid of a fellow warminista check the facts eh!

[Gray-Wolf]

Guys, check for yourself the average summer temps for both locations please and draw you're own conclusions as to the wisdom of holding one up against the other?

Moving swiftly on;

http://www.barentsobserver.com/russia-inspects-dangerous-objects-along-north-east-passage.4801791-16149.html

seems they've checked out the future, non-pirated, sea route and the first tanker has sailed and arrived in China........I wonder why they think this will become a major summer passage? I thought we were heading into a cooling period and a recovering Arctic??? All that oil and gas money and they can't buy the science that brings them closer to the truth of the matter......oh!, hang on.........maybe.........

[Devonian]

Pehaps you could read my earlier post,then you would save time and stop making yourself look foolish.

Russia has not had one "as" severe as this as far i can see/find info yet.The only i can see and compare to this is Marble Bar Australia, theres a good article on the site WUWT as i am sure you are aware.

According to the WUWT article "Temperatures above 100°F are common in Marble Bar and indeed throughout a wide area of northwestern Australia. On average, Marble Bar experiences about 154 such days each year." And Moscow? Well, it recorded 100f for the first time this year.

In a way the WUWT shows how remarkable the Russian heatwave was, they had to compare it with a place like Marble Bar to try and make it look less than extraordinary...