Meto Uk Further Outlook

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 4 Aug - Friday 13 Aug

The unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate the picture for the first half of August. A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with some drier interludes, is the general pattern expected through this period for all. Some of these showery spells may merge to give slightly longer spells of rain. At first, scattered showers for most, with some thunderstorms likely to develop from these. Torrential downpours are likely in some places. Winds generally remaining breezy, with temperatures expected to be near to average, perhaps slightly above average in northern areas. Through the remainder of this period, it will likely turn settled, though a few showers cannot be ruled out, especially in southeastern areas. Drier weather than recently, with sunny spells for most through to mid-August, with temperatures trending above average.

Friday 13 Aug - Friday 27 Aug

There is a tentative sign of more settled conditions developing with higher pressure becoming slightly more likely. This means drier conditions may become more prevalent, although there is still the risk of showers or thunderstorms at times. Temperatures likely to trend to above average, with an increasing chance of hotter spells developing as the month progresses.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 5 Aug - Saturday 14 Aug

The unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate the picture for the first half of August. A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with some drier interludes, is the general pattern expected at the start of August for all. Some of these showery spells may merge to give slightly longer spells of rain. At first, scattered showers for most, with some thunderstorms likely to develop from these. Torrential downpours are likely in some places. Winds generally remaining breezy, with temperatures expected to be near to average, perhaps slightly above average in northern areas. Towards the middle of the month, it will likely turn more settled, though a few showers cannot be ruled out, especially in southeastern areas. Becoming drier than recently, with sunny spells for most temperatures trending above average.

Saturday 14 Aug - Saturday 28 Aug

Whilst there are current signals of a drier and warmer than average period from the middle of August, occasional spells of more unsettled weather, primarily in the northwest, remains possible. Accompanying this is a low risk of short-lived thundery spells, these mainly in southeastern parts. Confidence through this period remains low at present. Most should see dry and fine weather, however. Above average temperatures continue to be indicated through the remainder of August, with possibly even very warm conditions at times in southern areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 6 Aug - Sunday 15 Aug

A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with some drier interludes is the general pattern expected through this period, as the unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate. Some of these showery spells may merge to give slightly longer spells of rain, with some thunderstorms likely to develop from these. Torrential downpours are likely in some places. There is a risk of strong winds at times for some, and temperatures are expected to be below average, but perhaps slightly above average in northern areas. Through the remainder of this period, it will likely turn settled, though a few showers cannot be ruled out, especially in southeastern areas. This will bring drier weather, with sunny spells for most through to mid-August, and temperatures trending above average.

Sunday 15 Aug - Sunday 29 Aug

Whilst there are current signals of a drier and warmer than average period from the middle of August, occasional spells of more unsettled weather, primarily in the northwest, remains possible. Accompanying this is a low risk of short-lived thundery spells, these mainly in southeastern parts. Confidence through this period remains low at present. However, most should see dry and fine weather. Above average temperatures continue to be indicated through the remainder of August, with possibly even very warm conditions at times in southern areas

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[andreas]

It is just me or is the forecast for the 6-15 August self-contradictory? The first sentence implies that the unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate throughout this period, whereas the penultimate sentence says it will be likely to turn settled through the remainder of this period (how ever 'remainder' is defined). Why does the Met Office not spend sum of its super-computing budget on employing a proof reader?

Edited August 1, 2021 by andreas
proof reading my own message

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 7 Aug - Monday 16 Aug

A mixture of sunny spells and showers, with some drier interludes is the general pattern expected through the start of this period, as unsettled, changeable conditions continue to dominate. Some of these showery spells may merge to give slightly longer spells of rain, with some thunderstorms likely to develop from these. Torrential downpours are likely in some places. There is a risk of strong winds at times for some, and temperatures are expected to be below average, but perhaps slightly above average in northern areas. Through the remainder of this period, it will likely turn more settled, though a few showers cannot be ruled out, especially in southeastern areas. This will bring drier weather, with sunny spells for most through to mid-August, and temperatures trending closer to, perhaps above average.

Tuesday 17 Aug - Tuesday 31 Aug

Whilst there are current signals of a drier and warmer than average period from the middle of August, occasional spells of more unsettled weather, primarily in the northwest, remains possible. Accompanying this is a low risk of short-lived thundery spells, these mainly in southeastern parts. Confidence through this period remains low at present. However, most should see dry and fine weather. Above average temperatures continue to be indicated through the second half of August, with a small possibility of very warm conditions at times in southern areas.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 9 Aug - Wednesday 18 Aug

Sunny spells and showers for many areas at the start of this period, with most frequent showers probably in the north and west. By the middle of next week there is an increasing likelihood of thicker cloud bringing rain to northwestern areas, together with stronger winds. These more unsettled conditions are likely to spread slowly southeastwards through the latter part of next week. Beyond this it is likely to remain changeable; confidence is low in terms of detail, but most places will likely see showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier, more settled periods. Some strong winds are possible at times, especially in the northwest. Temperatures are most likely to be around average, perhaps warm in the east and southeast.

Thursday 19 Aug - Thursday 2 Sep

Although confidence is very low through this period, a continuation of changeable conditions is most likely. Some more settled weather may develop, particularly towards the north and northeast of the UK. Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the potential for hotter weather later in the month with rainfall most likely below average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 14 Aug - Monday 23 Aug

Sunny spells and showers in the far north and cloud and some rain across southwestern areas on Saturday, but elsewhere mainly fine and dry. Showers are likely again across the north and west on Sunday and Monday with some strong winds, but it is expected to be drier in the southeast. Beyond this it is likely to remain changeable; confidence is low in terms of detail, but most places will likely see showers or longer rain spells, interspersed with some drier, more settled periods, these drier periods probably becoming more common toward the end of this period. Strong winds are possible at times, especially in the northwest. Temperatures likely to be around average, perhaps warm in the east and southeast.

Tuesday 24 Aug - Tuesday 7 Sep

Although confidence is very low through this period, a general trend towards more settled conditions is likely. Somewhat unsettled and changeable conditions are most likely to remain in place at the start of the period, with these looking to give way to more settled, drier conditions by the end. Temperatures are likely to be above average, with the potential for hotter weather later in the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 16 Aug - Wednesday 25 Aug

A showery start to next week is likely with showers most frequent in the north and east of the country where it will also be breezy at times. The best of any drier and sunnier weather across the west and southwest. Moving further into next week and for the rest of the period, high pressure may become more dominant with many areas seeing more settled conditions. However, changeable conditions remain possible across parts of the north and spells of heavy showers or thunderstorms can't be ruled out across parts of the south at times. Temperatures expected to be around average for most for this time of year, though with some warmer weather in more settled spells.

Thursday 26 Aug - Thursday 9 Sep

Confidence is very low through this period. There are signs that the UK will continue to be under the influence of high pressure with settled weather more likely in the south. However, some spells of heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible at times. The north of the UK will probably remain changeable and often unsettled. Temperatures are likely to be overall near or slightly above average.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 17 Aug - Thursday 26 Aug

Often rather cloudy at times through next week with cloud thick enough for outbreaks of light rain from time to time, especially towards the northwest of the UK. Elsewhere, largely dry with some sunny spells although rather windy. Into late August, changeable conditions look likely to continue in the north with showers or outbreaks of rain at times. Towards the southwest higher pressure is expected to be more of an influence, allowing for more settled and drier conditions. Temperatures are likely to be around average for the time of the year, although there is a chance of some warmer weather in the south if winds turn to an easterly direction. This may also bring the chance of intermittent heavy rain and thundery showers.

Friday 27 Aug - Friday 10 Sep

Similar conditions look likely to continue into this period with higher than average pressure towards the west and southwest of the UK, producing a north-westerly flow. This would likely bring brighter and drier weather in the southwest and more unsettled conditions in the northwest. There is a chance of a warmer easterly flow in the south at times, which may bring the risk of heavy and possibly thundery showers. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly above average overall. However, confidence is very low through this period.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 20 Aug - Sunday 29 Aug

Often rather cloudy at times through next week with cloud thick enough for outbreaks of rain at times, especially towards the northwest of the UK. Elsewhere, largely dry with some sunny spells although rather breezy and cool. Towards the end of next week settled conditions are likely to become more dominant across most areas with plenty of dry weather. However there still remains the possibility of showers, with perhaps some longer spells of rain and stronger winds in the north. Temperatures are expected to be around average. During late August, similar conditions look likely but there is a greater chance of winds from a southerly sector allowing for the possibility of some very warm spells. This may also bring the chance of intermittent heavy rain and thundery showers.

Sunday 29 Aug - Sunday 12 Sep

Through late August there is an increased chance of warmer than average conditions. This may bring the risk of thundery showers and longer spells of rain at times. Into early September confidence is very low but a northwest to southeast split is most likely. The northwest may experience more unsettled conditions and at times showers to longer spells of rain may spread southeast to other areas. Temperatures fluctuating around average. Any more prolonged and drier weather would be most likely in the southeast where there is a greater chance of warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 21 Aug - Monday 30 Aug

Remaining unsettled through the weekend with showers and longer spells of rain at times, but also with some drier conditions with sunshine too. Feeling humid and rather warm. Through the new week it is likely to become drier and less humid from the north with sunny spells. Thereafter there is a signal for settled conditions to become more dominant across most areas with largely dry weather. However there still remains the possibility of showers in places, with perhaps some longer spells of rain in the north or northwest. Temperatures are expected to be around average, although there is an increasing possibility that some very warm spells may develop later in the period. This may also bring the chance of thundery showers, especially in the south.

Tuesday 31 Aug - Tuesday 14 Sep

Confidence is very low during this period. A northwest to southeast split is most likely. Showers or longer spells of rain, together with strong winds, may affect northwestern areas, with these conditions spreading southeast to other parts of the UK at times. Any more prolonged dry and settled weather is most likely in the southeast. Temperatures are expected to be near average, perhaps warmer in the south and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 22 Aug - Tuesday 31 Aug

Confidence is low to start this period, with uncertainties in the details of an area of low pressure which is likely to be in charge. Initially unsettled, particularly in the south, with extensive rain and showers on Sunday. Conditions should become more settled into next week, with plenty of dry weather with occasional sunny spells. These more settled conditions could remain throughout the week, however rain and showers could develop once again. This is most likely towards the south with rain most probably moving in from the west. Winds likely to be light at the start of the period before perhaps increasing through the week, particularly if the unsettled weather arrives from the west. Temperatures most likely remaining close to, or rather above average, with warm spells likely at times.

Wednesday 1 Sep - Wednesday 15 Sep

Confidence exceptionally low across this period. The most probable scenario is that conditions be close to what is expected for late summer and early autumn. A possible northwest/southeast split is also likely. Showers or longer spells of rain, together with strong winds, may affect northwestern areas, with these conditions spreading southeast to other parts of the UK at times. Any more prolonged dry and settled weather is most likely in the southeast. Temperatures are expected to be near average, perhaps warmer in the south and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Wednesday 25 Aug - Friday 3 Sep

High pressure looks to become dominant across the UK with fine and settled weather continuing into this period. This will bring variable amounts of cloud, spells of sunshine and mainly light winds but also some fog patches by night, which readily clear away during day. It looks increasingly likely that these settled conditions will persist through much of this period, with perhaps weak frontal systems bringing some light rain at times. Winds likely to be light to moderate for most, with breezier conditions towards the edge of the high pressure in the far south, where it may feel cooler. Temperatures are likely to be rather warm in the west initially, but later feeling rather warm more widely, especially with increasing amounts of sunshine.

Saturday 4 Sep - Saturday 18 Sep

Confidence decreasing into this period, however there is a signal for high pressure and associated settled conditions to gradually become less dominant, with a trend towards more unsettled conditions. This may bring changeable conditions with periods of showers and longer spells of rain, interspersed with drier spells at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 28 Aug - Monday 6 Sep

The last weekend in August and into September is likely to be dominated by high pressure resulting in fine and settled weather across the UK. This will bring variable amounts of cloud, sunny spells, a few light showers and mainly light winds but some fog patches overnight, which clear during early morning. It looks increasingly likely that these settled conditions will persist through much of this period, with perhaps weak frontal systems bringing some light rain and showers at times. Winds likely to be light to moderate for most, with breezier conditions towards the edge of the high pressure in the far south, where it may feel cooler. Temperatures are likely to be rather warm in the west but near average and cool in the east below any persistent cloud.

Tuesday 7 Sep - Tuesday 21 Sep

Confidence decreasing into this period, however there is a signal for high pressure and associated settled conditions to gradually become less dominant, with a trend towards more unsettled conditions. This may bring changeable conditions with periods of showers and longer spells of rain, interspersed with drier spells at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 29 Aug - Tuesday 7 Sep

High pressure is likely to dominate through the end of August and the start of September, resulting in fine and settled weather across the UK. This will bring variable amounts of cloud, sunny spells, a few light showers, and some fog patches overnight, which clear during early morning. It looks increasingly likely that largely settled conditions will persist through much of the rest of this period, though perhaps weak frontal systems bringing light rain and showers at times. Winds likely to be light to moderate for most, fresher along the east coasts, and breezier towards the far south, where it may feel cooler. It is likely to be rather warm in the west but cool in the east below any persistent cloud.

Wednesday 8 Sep - Wednesday 22 Sep

Confidence is decreasing into this period, however there is a signal for high pressure and associated settled conditions to gradually become less dominant, with a trend towards more unsettled weather expected into the second week of September. This may bring changeable conditions with periods of showers and longer spells of rain, interspersed with drier spells at times, especially nearing the end of this period. Confidence is high that temperatures are likely to be near or above average for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Suggests a collapsing high eventually with return to a more typical westerly, south westerly flow hence temps at or a little above as month wears on. 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 4 Sep - Monday 13 Sep

High pressure still in charge initially. Most areas will see a continuation of dry weather, except for light rain or drizzle over windward coasts and hills, especially in eastern areas, with variable cloud and some spells of sunshine. Temperatures are likely to be near average for most, but rather cool in eastern regions. Over the weekend, as the high pressure begins to break down, outbreaks of rain may start to spread to some southern and western areas, with mostly dry weather continuing elsewhere. Into the following week, unsettled weather continues to push eastwards, bringing showers or longer spells of rain across many parts of the UK. Northern and eastern areas remaining settled for the longest. Winds remain light to moderate, but stronger in the northwest later, and temperatures around average.

Monday 13 Sep - Monday 27 Sep

The influence of tropical storm activity brings some uncertainty to this period. An unsettled spell is most likely for the middle of September, the focus for this toward the northwest of the UK, with the south and southeast perhaps holding on to drier weather. Toward the end of the month, it looks like a trend toward drier weather will begin, especially across the south. Temperatures are likely to be near to or a little above average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Tuesday 7 Sep - Thursday 16 Sep

Conditions are expected to become less settled through this period, though confidence is low at this time. Showers or longer spells of rain are likely, the focus of these perhaps across western areas, while some parts of the east may well hang on to largely dry conditions for much of this period. It will also be windy at times, this particularly so around some southern and western coasts and over the hills. There is the potential for some of the rain to be heavy at times, with the risk of some thunderstorms mixed in. Temperatures are likely to trend warmer than average across all parts, perhaps becoming very warm at times across sunnier parts of the east.

Friday 17 Sep - Friday 1 Oct

Confidence is relatively low during this period, as is usual for September, in part due to tropical storm activity across the Atlantic, which can significantly affect weather at the mid-latitudes. Currently, the evidence points towards the unsettled theme being likely to continue through the middle of the month, with a weak indication of possible drier conditions late in September. Therefore, rainfall is expected to be above average at first, with the chance of it easing and trending towards or drier than average later. Following this pattern, temperatures are expected to fluctuate around average in the middle of the month, with some occasional warm spells - these more likely in the southeast, and perhaps more widely towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 9 Sep - Saturday 18 Sep

The bulk of the UK is likely to turn more unsettled with a likelihood of showers at times, and these could turn heavy or thundery in places with a risk of localised torrential downpours. Outside of showers, periods of drier and sunnier weather are still a possibility, and these are most likely to be longest lived across eastern areas. For northwestern parts of the UK, alongside these showers, some more prolonged and heavier spells of rain are possible. Later in the period into mid-September, confidence is fairly low, but the unsettled theme will probably continue. Temperatures are likely to be above average throughout, with some areas perhaps feeling warm or even very warm at first.

Sunday 19 Sep - Sunday 3 Oct

Confidence is relatively low during this period, in part due to tropical storm activity across the Atlantic, which can significantly affect weather at the mid-latitudes. However, the unsettled theme will probably continue throughout this period and perhaps extend into late September, with rainfall expected to be slightly above average. Beyond this, there is a chance of more settled conditions, especially across southern areas, with a chance of rainfall easing and trending towards average or drier than average. Temperatures are likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Thursday 9 Sep - Saturday 18 Sep

The bulk of the UK is likely to turn more unsettled with a likelihood of showers at times, and these could turn heavy or thundery in places with a risk of localised torrential downpours. Outside of showers, periods of drier and sunnier weather are still a possibility, and these are most likely to be longest lived across eastern areas. For northwestern parts of the UK, alongside these showers, some more prolonged and heavier spells of rain are possible. Later in the period into mid-September, confidence is fairly low, but the unsettled theme will probably continue. Temperatures are likely to be above average throughout, with some areas perhaps feeling warm or even very warm at first.

Sunday 19 Sep - Sunday 3 Oct

Confidence is relatively low during this period, in part due to tropical storm activity across the Atlantic, which can significantly affect weather at the mid-latitudes. However, the unsettled theme will probably continue throughout this period and perhaps extend into late September, with rainfall expected to be slightly above average. Beyond this, there is a chance of more settled conditions, especially across southern areas, with a chance of rainfall easing and trending towards average or drier than average. Temperatures are likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Friday 10 Sep - Sunday 19 Sep

The bulk of the UK is likely to turn more unsettled with a likelihood of showers at times, and these could turn heavy or thundery in places with a risk of localised torrential downpours. Outside of showers, periods of drier and sunnier weather are still a possibility, and these are most likely to be longest lived across eastern areas. For northwestern parts of the UK, alongside these showers, some more prolonged and heavier spells of rain are possible. Later in the period into mid-September, confidence is fairly low, but the unsettled theme will probably continue. Temperatures are likely to be above average throughout, with some areas perhaps feeling warm or even very warm at first.

Monday 20 Sep - Monday 4 Oct

Confidence is relatively low during this period, in part due to tropical storm activity across the Atlantic, which can significantly affect weather at the mid-latitudes. However, the unsettled theme will probably continue throughout this period and perhaps extend into late September, with rainfall expected to be slightly above average. Beyond this, there is a chance of more settled conditions, especially across southern areas, with a chance of rainfall easing and trending towards average or drier than average. Temperatures are likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Saturday 11 Sep - Monday 20 Sep

The start of the period is looking mixed, with areas of cloud and some showery rain along with increasing areas of good sunny spells and dry weather. There is a chance of sunnier, drier conditions moving in from the west or northwest during this time. Conditions will become less settled towards the middle of the period, with showers and chances of longer spells of rain. This rain could become heavy, particularly in the west and northwest, with thunderstorms possible throughout the UK. Drier and sunnier periods are still expected, especially in the east. Later in the period into mid-September, confidence is fairly low, but the unsettled theme will probably continue. Temperatures are likely to be above average throughout, with some areas perhaps feeling warm or even very warm at first.

Tuesday 21 Sep - Tuesday 5 Oct

Confidence is relatively low during this period, in part due to tropical storm activity across the Atlantic, which can significantly affect weather at the mid-latitudes. However, the unsettled theme will probably continue throughout the first half of this period with rainfall expected to be slightly above average. Beyond this, there is a chance of more settled conditions, especially across southern areas, with a chance of rainfall easing and trending towards average or drier than average. Temperatures are likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Sunday 12 Sep - Tuesday 21 Sep

Sunday is expected to be mostly dry with variable cloud and some sunny spells. Scattered, mostly light showers are still possible, mainly in eastern areas. The sunniest conditions are most probable in the west. These settled and largely dry conditions are expected to continue into next week with variable cloud and some decent clear and sunny spells, although perhaps cloudier in the far north and northwest with rain at times. Probably turning more unsettled from the southwest later in the week, with rain or showers perhaps turning heavy and thundery. Some regions, especially in the north and east, could remain fine and dry. Temperatures near normal to rather warm, although some cool nights are likely, especially at first with rural ground frosts possible.

Wednesday 22 Sep - Wednesday 6 Oct

Confidence is typically low. The most likely scenario is that conditions remain more unsettled overall from mid-to late September, beyond which a trend to more settled conditions is probable, especially across the south. Within the unsettled period there is a very low risk of very disturbed, perhaps stormy conditions. Rainfall expected to be above average, although may trend to near or drier than average late into September and into early October. Temperatures likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[Summer Sun]

Monday 13 Sep - Wednesday 22 Sep

Monday is expected to be mostly dry with cloudier conditions south and east, and brighter further west. Scattered, mostly light showers are still possible, with a chance of heavier rain in the southwest. Settled and largely dry conditions are then expected to continue through the start of next week with variable cloud and some decent clear and sunny spells, although perhaps cloudier in the far north and northwest with rain at times. Probably turning more unsettled from the southwest later in the week, with rain or showers perhaps turning heavy and thundery. Some regions, especially in the north and east, could remain fine and dry. Temperatures near normal to rather warm, although some cool nights are likely, especially at first with rural ground frosts possible.

Thursday 23 Sep - Thursday 7 Oct

Confidence is typically low. The most likely scenario is that conditions remain more unsettled overall from mid-to late September, beyond which a trend to more settled conditions is probable, especially across the south. Within the unsettled period there is a very low risk of very disturbed, perhaps stormy conditions. Rainfall expected to be above average, although may trend to near or drier than average late into September and into early October. Temperatures likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

 

[damianslaw]

Above suggests the atlantic winning out eventually against heights to the east.. but could be a protracted affair.. with the heights never fully going away.