Tropical Cyclone Jal

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Invest 99W which originated in the West Pacific moved into the Bay Of Bengal a couple of days ago and is now organised enough to be designated a 35kt tropical cyclone, the fifth of the North Indian Ocean season. Moderate shear is currently impinging on the cyclone, but high levels of instibility and good outflow in all quadrants except the east should allow for further development. Once shear eases in around 24hrs time, strengthening could be more rapid. 05B is currently situated in the central Bay of Bengal and has 3-4 days over warm water. Therefore, although JTWC only explicitly forecasts growth to 65kts, 05B does have the time to become stronger. Conditions are not perfect like they were with Giri, but I can't help thinking that if the shear eases as forecast, 05B could become stronger than cat 1. A subtropical ridge anchored to the north of 05B over the northern Bay Of Bengal should ensure a general west-northwestward motion over the next few days, and landfall is very likely on the east coast of India late this weekend/early next week unless the ridge unexpectedly weakens.

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05B has strengthened to 45kts and has been declared Tropical Cyclone Jal. Jal is still suffering from moderate shear but this should ease tonight. With warm waters and good outflow aloft, Jal should intensify further before impacting the east coast of India. JTWC's forecast peak of 70kts could still be too low. We shall see.

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Jal has strengthened further to 55kts. Convection has become more centralised over the LLC indicative of decreasing shear. Banding is becoming quite impressive in association with Jal, with suggests a healthy, mature storm. Jal should become a cat 1 on the SS scale by tomorrow morning, and I think cat 2 shouldn't be ruled out before a landfall near Chennai, India. Heavy rains are already spreading into the region surrounding Chennai, and also over Sri Lanka. JTWC mention that Jal might survive as a tropical depression/remnant low across India into the Arabian Sea and re-intensify over warm water, similar to Tropical Cyclone Yemyin in 2007. As ever, we shall see.

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Thanks for the updates!

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If this storm does make it into the Arabian Sea it will be quite something, especially as the system originated all the way back in the West Pacific!

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Jal peaked at 70kts (cat 1) before making landfall near Chennai. Prior to landfall, shear unexpectedly became stronger meaning Jal weakened somewhat before landfall. Jal has degnerated into a remnant low, which is becoming very ill defined as it tracks over India. A deep, flaring area of convection has persisted just west of the LLC, indicating that shear is still high. If the remnant low survives into the Arabian Sea there is still a chance of regeneration though it's looking less likely than before.

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Image from earlier.