Better Than The Models ?

[MurcieBoy]

Almost there, here are the last but one comparisons with GFS and actuals:

4 Feb

5 Feb

Actuals:

28 Jan

30 Jan

1 Feb

2 Feb

3 Feb

[MurcieBoy]

My first message now even for once. I will sometimes fill in more details in my profile. I am currently living in Panheel (Mid Limburg / on the Meuse). I always keep myself busy with water etc.

It just struck me that despite the tide in the wind direction IJmuiden [waterstand=water level] starts to deviate from the astronomical tide. Still nothing special but I thought it was striking:

[elking]

Long time lurker, read a lot but don't post often. Just wanted to say thank you to Murcie Boy, RJS and Coast for making this a fascinating thread.

Although the synoptics and detail were off kilter, the fact that you nailed the extreme winds and general storminess almost to the day, is remarkable. Your method almost certainly warrants further investigation and was not a failure. I think you rankled people with your initial sensationalism, but perhaps that mistake will be part of the learning curve!

Good luck with your further endeavours, keep posting and thank you RJS for your statistical analyses.

[Coast]

Here's today's midday comparison, Nick's forecast versus actual MetO analysis:

Apart from the position of the low off Norway which is about 600 miles out and 14mb different, I can't find any other features that correspond today. Isobars are at 90 Dg to each other in most of the forecast area, wind speeds are high but are coming off the Atlantic and mostly W/SW or SW direction.

[MurcieBoy]

I got a link via a YouTube PM from somone in Denmark who referred me to the Danish Met Institute (DMI) website which states the following:

DMI: ADVISORIES

Warning of increased water levels at the west coast

Issued by the DMI, 4 Februar 2011 5:45 local Danish time

There are warning of increased water levels at the west coast.

At high tide last night expected a water level of approx. 3.0 m above the DVR90 in the Wadden Sea at Esbjerg, Højer and Romo, and I Thorsminde and Hvide Sande 2.1 to 2.4 m above the DVR90.

(Danish Vertical Reference 1990),

Varsel om storm Warning of storm

Issued by the DMI, 4 February 2011 13:13 local Danish time

There are warning of stomers with gusts of hurricane strength in the North.

Wind becoming west 22 to 26 mph with gusts to 35 mph

The storm begins Saturday morning and is expected to have slowed to breeze Saturday, late afternoon.

[Coast]

Issued by the DMI, 4 February 2011 13:13 local Danish time

There are warning of stomers with gusts of hurricane strength in the North.

Wind becoming west 22 to 26 mph with gusts to 35 mph

The storm begins Saturday morning and is expected to have slowed to breeze Saturday, late afternoon.

Well, you did say this about the 5th:

I'll leave that for people to interpret as they think best.

[MurcieBoy]

Long time lurker, read a lot but don't post often. Just wanted to say thank you to Murcie Boy, RJS and Coast for making this a fascinating thread.

Although the synoptics and detail were off kilter, the fact that you nailed the extreme winds and general storminess almost to the day, is remarkable. Your method almost certainly warrants further investigation and was not a failure. I think you rankled people with your initial sensationalism, but perhaps that mistake will be part of the learning curve!

Good luck with your further endeavours, keep posting and thank you RJS for your statistical analyses.

Many thanks indeed. Yes, its a learning curve for me on a number of fronts; afterall, it was just my fourth forecast!

BTW, on the sensationalist issue that is what I was seeing from my work - I wasn't trying to be; and on the extreme conditions point, according to the BBC, a few wind records have been broken up in Scotland. IIRC, the wind meter in a weather station up in Cairngorms packed up at 115mph!

[Coast]

according to the BBC, a few wind records have been broken up in Scotland. IIRC, the wind meter in a weather station up in Cairngorms packed up at 115mph!

But you wouldn't be claiming these were as a result of, or linked to a North Sea based event though eh?!

http://www.cairngormmountain.co.uk/weather-update

[Guest mycroft]

Many thanks indeed. Yes, its a learning curve for me on a number of fronts; afterall, it was just my fourth forecast!

BTW, on the sensationalist issue that is what I was seeing from my work - I wasn't trying to be; and on the extreme conditions point, according to the BBC, a few wind records have been broken up in Scotland. IIRC, the wind meter in a weather station up in Cairngorms packed up at 115mph!

Presenter on radio4 forecast said the highest gust he's seen was 134MPH in Aonach Mor

well done on your forcast 10/10 for timing,less for some of the wind speeds quoted,

but as you've stated early days in your method

Edited February 4, 2011 by mycroft

[MurcieBoy]

Presenter on radio4 forecast said the highest gust he's seen was 134MPH in Aonach Mor

well done on your forcast 10/10 for timing,less for some of the wind speeds quoted,

but as you've stated early days in your method

Many thanks.

My fault entirely for the confusion, but the greatest gusts that were in the Storm Forecast were 110-140mph. The higher mph values related to Gradient Winds, see:

Wind speed: as requested, I am able to clarify the wind speeds that I refer to in the forecast are in mph and refer to the Gradient Winds. The strongest gusts (not gradient winds) over the North Sea during the 1-5 Feb 2011 are forecasted to be around 110-140 mph. I hope this clears up any confusion that may have arisen, for which I apologise (I wanted to get the forecast out before the Bells!)

NB: The BBC are saying the Jetstream reached 200mph (the largest figure seen by the weatherman who made the video cast on their website).

BTW, even if the Feb 2011 Storm Forecast verified 100% it would not negate the need for the method to be tested over an extended length of time before it proved worthy to me.

Edited February 4, 2011 by MurcieBoy

[Roger J Smith]

For the second validation, the highest 500 mb wind speeds were about 110 knots, and at 250 mbs, 175 knots.

Sorry, you can't use mountain-based wind gusts in the Cairngorms to validate for surface wind predictions made for lower elevations, these are more like upper air readings. Maximum surface winds were about 90 mph in northern Scotland yesterday. Maximum gusts in places like Denmark, Holland and northwest Germany were in the vicinity of 60 mph.

The most significant winds from this event so far have actually been in Ireland as well as parts of Scotland. There have been scattered reports of minor wind damage in these regions.

Today's 500 mb wind direction was westerly. I will post the second validation study on the weekend after getting the final day's readings.

[TEITS]

Just wondering how MBs method can combat the chaos theory effect. As we know the GFS at +300 onwards wildly differs and the main reason for this is because of slight changes early on in the run. These slight changes become bigger as the model continues with its run hence why I say the chaos theory.

I can't see how any method can take this into account and because MB forecasts are so detailed this makes them even more prone to the chaos theory.

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Chaos theory should not be used as a convenient excuse not to look for patterns.

Although MB's forecast storm was way to the West of where he thought it would be he got the +ve NAO and strong storm near Britain bit right. Even knowing just that a month ahead can assist forecast.

Britain has been battered by gales which left a man dead and caused damage and disruption to roads and buildings.

[mesocyclone]

Hi all,

Kind of glad your forecast didn't turn out exactly as planned MB as it would have caused much devastation.

However, with more refinement and work i think you are on to something here, all forecasts you have made have not been that far off the mark considering the length of time given and your admitted lack of understanding of meteorology.

There is something to work on, Edison had over one thousand "failures" before solving the mystery on how to harness light. I hope you keep at it.

I believe you should be encouraged by all as should anyone attempting to better our understanding of the world we inhabit.

Thanks to RJS and Coast for all your work too. Most interesting thread.

Regards

Meso

[La Bise]

Thank you Mr Data and TEITS, a few precious nuggets of, shall we say, considered thoughts.

[TEITS]

Chaos theory should not be used as a convenient excuse not to look for patterns.

Thats the point though MB forecasts don't predict general patterns but actual detail and its this detail that is prone to changes due to the chaos theory. We see this on a daily basis on the GFS runs beyond 240. This is why I said in a previous post that when it comes to making a LRF you should only predict the general pattern rather than go into detail. All I want to know is how does MB method get around this problem because the supercomputers certainly can't!

[MurcieBoy]

My first message now even for once. I will sometimes fill in more details in my profile. I am currently living in Panheel (Mid Limburg / on the Meuse). I always keep myself busy with water etc.

It just struck me that despite the tide in the wind direction IJmuiden [waterstand=water level] starts to deviate from the astronomical tide. Still nothing special but I thought it was striking:

The person over on the Dutch Forum posted up some updated water level charts (adding two other reference points) at around 7.30pm local time:

[lorenzo]

Here you go MB as a thanks to providing loads of interest since the gloom of the January high - this is the ' main news' I guess bbc news from that area and a pretty impressive event as records detail

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-12366753

Still what I don't enjoy about this thread is that I have asked questions here and still maintain that the presence of high powered low is a multi decedal event happening across the first or last few years of each decade since 1950 - so I think a 'safe bet' to be close to. If this is not your aim then fine. However if you look at WZ archive from 1950 onwards and take 00-03 or 07-09 yrs this is an easy trend to follow without ANY other influence.

Am fed up with this not revealing method by cryptic clues tbh, wheat trades, FX currency cycles, weather all have cycles.

Even if you pointed out some framework as i mentioned before you have 10K plus people here looking to help you develop things without ruining the published work.

Anyhow thanks for the fun. If you have any thoughts as to why it is always anomalously sunny the weekend the Scottish Cup Final in Football is on c22/05/20xx then let me know

Ta

[MurcieBoy]

Thanks lorenzo for the link. I've been video taping the Scottish TV news coverage over the last few days, so will try and include some of it in the Appraisal video. Re 10 year cycles - yes, have heard of them in the stock market; Spurs used to win cups in a year ending in a 1 - perhaps the Champions League this year? - I will faint!

On the subject of links, apart from this thread, this was my favourite thread on the web which featured a link to my Youtube video. It starts off:

[mesocyclone]

Spurs used to win cups in a year ending in a 1 - perhaps the Champions League this year? - I will faint!

Please be correct on that prediction!

[Rustynailer]

Maybe your methods can pick whether or not the cold has gone for good this winter MB. I would love to hear what you think in that respect. Will winter come back or is that it?

I hope you try again, this has been an interesting thread, people have really pulled out all the stops to help.

Kind regards,

Rusty

[Coast]

I'll try and complete the final days chart comparison today, but I don't have the transparency feature on any software here at home, so it will be a straight side by side check. I will do it on Monday so that it at least completes the set and hopefully people can make their own judgements and calls.

[MurcieBoy]

^^ Meso, I'd like to see Spurs play Barcelona at some point (after the latter have despatched the Gooners....)

Right here is the last comparison with GFS and the Actuals:

5 Feb

Actuals:

28 Jan

30 Jan

1 Feb

2 Feb

3 Feb

4 Feb

[MurcieBoy]

In a week of Storms over the UK, even Westminster had their own:

[La Bise]

All of this was like predicting a 4-4 game that actually ended 0-0 and now claiming that because both teams hit the posts a few times, there is something worth working on...