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Paul Sherman

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Posted
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
  • Location: Otford/Sevenoaks, NW Kent (Approx. 100m asl); Hometown - Auckland, New Zealand
Posted

I can't seem to find this appraisal video anywhere... Any help?

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

I can't seem to find this appraisal video anywhere... Any help?

I think this is the link, otherwise trawl back until you find the post from MB with his link

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Plz1giX2TU

Posted

You said North Sea, that did not occur. You got it wrong,

That is why the video says "Spectacular Failure"; the Appraisal video acknowledges the forecast was wrong

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and your video seeks to prove you got most of it right.

Please stop insulting the intelligence of members on this site.

The video only seeks to give the facts; as reported by the Met Office, BBC, NOAA (GFS) and Satellite images (Naval Research Laboratory).

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I am a bit of a stickler for getting quotes correct.

Then please objectively scrutinise the whole text in the Forecast and Appraisal videos

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... dramatic music onto a video......Trading Standards..... sleight of hand .....pushed an interesting idea into Piers Corbyn territory.... you may have convinced me that even though throwing a head, you meant it to be a tail.

Now he makes his honest comment

No, sorry, it was ridiculing and that is not acceptable under the terms of this Forum.

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You cannot post ideas/forecasts with such bold statements and not expect criticism.

I only object to the principle that those that genuinely try to make some headway in the subject of Long Term Weather Forecasting are ridiculed for no reason other than because they step out of line from the norm.

Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
Posted

That is why the video says "Spectacular Failure"; the Appraisal video acknowledges the forecast was wrong

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The video only seeks to give the facts; as reported by the Met Office, BBC, NOAA (GFS) and Satellite images (Naval Research Laboratory).

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Then please objectively scrutinise the whole text in the Forecast and Appraisal videos

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No, sorry, it was ridiculing and that is not acceptable under the terms of this Forum.

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I only object to the principle that those that genuinely try to make some headway in the subject of Long Term Weather Forecasting are ridiculed for no reason other than because they step out of line from the norm.

I see no ridiculing.

What I see is a forecast which didn't yield results. If a forecast, by anyone and by any means is made and it proves to be unsuccessful, then it is perfectly acceptable for that to be pointed out - this is after all a weather forum. Other forecasts are made by other members on here, they are all subject to the same scrutiny and criticism, even the official Netweather ones.

Forecasts stand or fall on the accuracy of the outcome, not the method used. The wisest thing (IMO) is to accept the criticism with good grace and try again. The methods are not being criticised, the outcome is merely being appraised.

Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
Posted

I'm going to say this............

I've supported Nick's forecast thread and I've found the outcome interesting. I don't think anyone can deny that it was a very windy and wet spell of weather so there does seem to be a connection to the method and weather type. There is something more than chance starting to appear. I am not saying that the forecast was correct as the evolution was well wide of the mark and the positioning of everything was quite a way off.

For those who couldn't be bothered to watch the video to the end, Nick does class the forecast as a failure but with some positive points. He also points out the areas for improvement.

Nick... If you want people to take your ideas and presentation seriously, do yourself a favour and cut out the backslapping in your videos and cut out the dramatic music. Yes, it's great you got the weather type but that's no good for someone wanting to sure up a huge wedding marque only to find the wind is 90 degrees out when it hits... Be realistic. That whole piece should have been done by the 5 minute mark tops. I can understand why a lot turned it off. There is no need for overkill because if the method can be made to be accurate, in the future it will sell itself.

Posted

Well, I think we just have to agree to differ re the last two posts.

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The video was only that length as it was vital to get across what actually happened throughout that five day period. Without such an understanding, any appraisal would have been flawed.

When the original forecast came out the first reasoned questions related to the strength of the winds; ie: whether there would be a Jet Stream with such ferocity. In deciding how to create the video, I felt it was vital to address this issue. Leaving aside that reasoning, the BBC weather forecasters made sure from their comments, the strong "over 200mph" Jet Stream would be the key feature of any appraisal video.

The Appraisal video by definition needed to refer to the original forecast for comparison. When things were wrong they were described as "Spectacular Failures"; when there were positive verifications they were described blandly as such. However, there was no "backslapping"; in fact, I did not even give a verdict on the forecast.

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Re the ridicule point, I could be wrong, but such comments only serve to put off newcomers from coming forward with new ideas (which is what this industry of LRF needs IMO, speaking as an outsider).

If one honestly looks at this industry and takes away all the advances in technology (computers, computer software, satellites, radar, telecomminications, the Internet), how far has it really moved forward in the last 150 years or so? Are we much closer in really understanding what drives the weather?

Even with this technology, as a layman, as far as I can see, the LRF industry in making a forecast relies upon a weather system to start, then sophisticated state of the art sensors around the Earth and in Space track it, the models use that information and generate LRF charts that are way off and very changeable to begin with, but close in on the actual from around 3-7 days of the target day.

As one respected poster on here once said: “if we built bridges and airplanes the way we make weather forecasts, a lot of people would refuse to get on a plane or drive a carâ€.

My comments about ridiculing (throughout this thread and on another Forum) are therefore all about the negative impact it may have in tackling the real issues facing this industry.

Posted
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
  • Location: Swallownest, Sheffield 83m ASL
Posted

The Appraisal video by definition needed to refer to the original forecast for comparison. When things were wrong they were described as "Spectacular Failures"; when there were positive verifications they were described blandly as such. However, there was no "backslapping"; in fact, I did not even give a verdict on the forecast.

So 10 minutes of various clips of news coverage isn't backslapping? The whole thing is only 15 minutes long....

Posted

So 10 minutes of various clips of news coverage isn't backslapping? The whole thing is only 15 minutes long....

The clips and web headlines were there to highlight what happened; it was necessary to objectively show what happened in an Appraisal video covering 7 days of forecasting.

The "10 minutes of various clips" therefore equally verified objectively the "Spectacular failures" and any positive verifications.

Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
Posted

Nick, I’ve been another ‘silent lurker’ on here and I’ve found this a most interesting thread to read. I’m a very open minded person who even though I felt sceptical not knowing your ‘method’ I have tried to remain open to the possibility that you could be onto a radical new system. I have to say your 100% confidence in something so ‘experimental’ intrigued me and I’ve followed with interest to see if we would get the same set up (or even somewhere close to it) as you predicted.

Like you I’m ‘not a weather person’ but it became obvious during the dates you specified that although very stormy with two days of wild weather in Scotland the North Sea Storm you forecast just didn’t happen. Even with my limited knowledge variances such as the wind being from the SW and not NW made this a fail IMO. The ‘major destruction’ was in Australia which did make me wonder if you had looked at your data upside down and what you saw was in the Southern hemisphere.

I don’t think you’re a gambler who got it wrong or you intentionally set out to mislead people, you called it as you saw it, but that might be where the ‘schoolboy error’ in the system is. Could it be that your onto something but you misunderstood the results due to your admitted lack of meteorological knowledge ?

Have you actually established the reasons for the failure of this forecast yet ? I have watched your appraisal video (yes I suffered it to the end) and I can understand why you are being accused of sensationalism (not helped by the dreadful music) you may as well have shown pictures of the floods in Queensland. If I were you I would try to make future productions less dramatic to avoid redicule and being too P.C. (and I don‘t mean politically correct). I don’t blame you for your unwillingness to divulge your methods, if I came up with a system of repeating patterns or rhythmic cycles that could predict the six winning numbers for Saturdays Lotto I wouldn’t want to share it with anyone, but throwing yourself into the Dragons Den before you had tested and refined your method more rigorously was brave if not foolhardy.

Maybe if you had been less specific and given a more general forecast such as deep LP and gales without going into such details you would not have had such criticism and could have claimed some success. I don’t think it’s back to the drawing board, there could quite possibly be a connection here, perhaps you were just trying to be too precise so far out. I wouldn’t like to think you were discouraged, it’s good that some people try to think outside the box and advance our understanding of things. I hope you do have more attempts, hopefully a less extreme prediction showing a general weather pattern, and a better presented forecast.

I remain impartial overall it’s just for me this one was a fail, but if you can forecast a week in August that would be good for a UK holiday I would be really impressed. :D

Posted
  • Location: The Wash - Norfolk side
  • Weather Preferences: Storms storms and more storms
  • Location: The Wash - Norfolk side
Posted

In no way could this be called anything other than a spectacular failure. If it had been a general forecast then MB may have got more kudos, but to give such detail he was heading for a fall immediately. There was no Great North Sea Storm which MB prophesised as being far worse than the 1953 floods. There was no flooding in the low countries, no loss of life in Hamburg or anywhere else for that matter. Looking at the video it would seem to be a dig at the GFS, MET et al for NOT forecasting it rather than an honest appraisal of his own forecast. Yes, sure it was windy, particularly in Scotland and parts of Wales but that's not too unusual for February. Here right on the east coast the highest gust we had over the whole period was 61mph, again not the most unusual weather.

I started off by thinking that MB might be on to something and would be willing to discuss his methodology. I kept an open mind until the point at which he lied on the forum and said I had sent him offensive PMs - which I categorically deny. I had a discussion via PM with him about the fourth dimension and what it meant to him. His replies were "interesting".

Sadly, MB also cannot take any form of criticism. If you publish wild headlines about Great North Sea Storms then you have to be able to take constructive criticism and engage in debate (unless your name is Piers Corbyn! :lol: ). What could have been an interesting debate ended up degenerating because of MB's stance - such a pity! To "have a go" at COAST is appalling, his posts were really useful and on many occasions he was a calming influence on the thread. He put a hell of a lot of work into trying to help MB Overuse of the word "ridicule" here I think

Posted
  • Location: Sale (Cheshire)
  • Weather Preferences: Dry and cold...
  • Location: Sale (Cheshire)
Posted

Maybe before wanting to change the "LRF industry", actually having a working understanding of meteorology might be useful..."Fresh ideas" might be great in the advertising industry, but it's hard science we are talking about.

  • 1 month later...
Posted
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
  • Location: Putney, SW London. A miserable 14m asl....but nevertheless the lucky recipient of c 20cm of snow in 12 hours 1-2 Feb 2009!
Posted

Today's (22 Jan) Met Office long range forecast is just a description of the UK climate. Anyone could do this.

UK Outlook for Sunday 6 Feb 2011 to Sunday 20 Feb 2011:

This period looks to start mainly dry across southern parts of the UK, with cloudier, wetter and milder conditions in the north and west. Overnight frost and fog patches could continue for many southern parts of England and Wales. Meanwhile, spells of rain or drizzle, perhaps heavy at times with strong winds, are more likely further north across Scotland and Northern Ireland, with hill snow also possible here at times.

Updated: 1145 on Sat 22 Jan 2011

Here's my forecast for April 20th 2011.

Temperatures about normal for the time of year, but with periods of warm spring sunshine at times in the midlands, east and south-east England. Generally dry, but some light showers are possible, especially in the north and west. Mostly light winds.

Pieman

"Anyone could do this", Pieman? Yes, of course they could, but would they be remotely right? Bar the extreme north of Scotland, 20th April has been dry as a bone and exceptionally warm for everyone away from cooler eastern (not western) coasts, where there's also been the odd patch of fog/drizzle coming in off the North Sea.

Describing the climatic norm for the time of year is one method of making a long-distance forecast, I suppose, but it's demonstrably not necessarily a very good one! :winky: As far as I know, the Met Office don't use it, at least not on its own.

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