Hale Winters

[Jan]

I have been looking for a topic in the learners area I started about 2 yrs ago about Hale Winters following the cold/snowy winter we had in 2008/9.

With the extremely cold spell we have just experienced I am eager to know if a Hale Winter is responsible, are the last few cold winters all connected and should we expect following winters to be as cold or if not colder or will the winter season warm up ie milder, for another 20 odd years or so?

[Weather-history]

I have never bought the Hale winter theory. It is vague before 1895 and we had 2008-09 described as a Hale winter then came last winter then that was described as the Hale winter and then we have had just a really severe winter spell and no doubt that will be described as the Hale winter

[Jan]

That's what I was wondering, if there is any evidence in the theory. When we had the cold of 2008/9 I was told we where overdue a 'Hale Winter' at the time, then this year has happened, is it just down to weather patterns or is there really such a thing that happens every 25 years, I'm open minded at the moment and would like to find evidence but not sure where to look and learn.

[Guest]

Just had a look at the stats and as I understand it a Hale winter is supposed to occur every 23 years or thereabouts and whilst they appear to occur in sometimes, this is not always the case and in particular the winters of 1916, 1940 and 1947 are some years out.

I have placed the years where the av temp for the winter is +2C or less in bold for easy reference. Figures are taken from the Met Office stats and if I have made any errors in transcribing them I apologise in advance.

At first sight the theory does not appear to be proved altogether though it does have a hit from time to time but I would not bet on it.

Year Dec Year Jan Feb Mean

2008 3.5 2009 3.16 4.19 3.63

2009 3.14 2010 1.19 2.83 2.39 Hale Winter?

1995 2.2 1996 4 2.3 2.82

1996 2.7 1997 2 6.1 3.54

1990 4.1 1991 3 1.4 2.88

1984 5 1985 0.5 2.1 2.55

1985 6.1 1986 3.1 -1.3 2.75

1986 5.6 1987 0.6 3.4 3.18

1981 0.3 1982 2.6 4.5 2.41

1976 1.8 1977 2.4 4.7 2.89 Hale Winter?

1977 5.7 1978 2.9 2.1 3.6

1978 3.8 1979 -0.3 0.9 1.46 But what about this?

1967 3.8 1968 3.9 1.6 3.15

1968 2.8 1969 5.1 0.5 2.86

1969 3 1970 3.4 2.6 3.01

1961 2.2 1962 4 4 3.37

1962 1.8 1963 -2.3 -1.2 -0.52 But what about this?

1963 2.3 1964 2.9 4 3.06

1964 3 1965 3 2.8 2.95

1965 4.2 1966 2.4 5.2 3.89

1957 4.1 1958 3.1 4.5 3.86

1958 4.4 1959 1.5 4.1 3.3

1950 1 1951 3.5 3.3 2.57

1951 5.2 1952 2.5 3 3.58

1952 2.9 1953 3.1 3.9 3.25

1953 6.7 1954 2.6 2.2 3.88 Hale Winter?

1954 6.2 1955 2.3 1 3.22

1955 5.4 1956 3.3 -0.6 2.76

1946 2.8 1947 1.8 -2 0.95 But what about this?

1944 3.4 1945 0.2 6.6 3.3

1939 2.9 1940 -1.3 2.2 1.24 But what about this?

1940 3.6 1941 0.3 2.9 2.24

1941 5.2 1942 0.9 -0.1 2.04

1935 2.7 1936 3.4 2.2 2.8

1932 5.2 1933 2.1 3.7 3.66

1933 1.3 1934 3.9 3.4 2.85

1930 4 1931 3 3.5 3.5 Hale Winter?

1928 3.2 1929 1.3 0 1.55 But what about this?

1923 3.4 1924 4.1 2.8 3.45

1916 1.9 1917 1.2 0.7 1.28 But what about this?

1917 2 1918 3.4 5.9 3.69

1918 6.5 1919 2.6 1.5 3.59

1914 4.3 1915 3.6 3.7 3.87

[Jan]

Thanks for that Mike, my way of thinking is that, law of averages we will get extreme winters or hot summers at various years but, I can't see how we are due one within a certain timescale, to my mind the weather goes in cycles/patterns and only mother nature can call this. Any idea who decided to call it a Hale winter? and don't say Mr Hale!

[Thundery wintry showers]

The 22-23 year cycle of cold winters associated with the "Hale" phenomenon occurred in 1895, 1917, 1940, 1963 and around 1985-87. As Kevin points out it is less clear-cut before 1895 and the cycle would have took us to around 2007-09, so the current severe winters are coming a bit late.

[Guest]

Thanks for that Mike, my way of thinking is that, law of averages we will get extreme winters or hot summers at various years but, I can't see how we are due one within a certain timescale, to my mind the weather goes in cycles/patterns and only mother nature can call this. Any idea who decided to call it a Hale winter? and don't say Mr Hale!

Mr Hale

Tried looking it up but can't find much info.

[jethro]

Thought some may find these interesting:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation

http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=7277700

http://www.binghamheritage.org.uk/history_of_bingham/victorian/binghams_weather.php

[VillagePlank]

Not quite true - the Hale cycle has an average of 22 years, which means it can come early, as well as late. Fourier analysis doesn't yield the cycle, for that reason, and some complex autocorrelation is required to actually spot the damn thing. You can create it yourself by generating some sine waves with the main amplitude of 22 years, then 5 years either side a random addition (ie add somewhere between 0 and 0.2) to a random dataset. Fourier analysis, and wavelets miss it, but it's there (and you know it's there because you put it there!)

(The corollary is that if it comes late a few times in a row, then it's not going to be on some modulo 22 year spot on cycle)