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DAILY CHASE ACCOUNT 10/05/04


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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Not sure where Chaser is headed today but this has been issued for where I think he may go:

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AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN WY...NERN CO...WRN NEB PANHANDLE...FAR

  SWRN SD

   

  CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL  

   

  VALID 101904Z - 102130Z

   

  ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS ERN WY BETWEEN

  22-00Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES. WW

  PROBABLE NEXT 1-3 HOURS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF FAR ERN WY/NERN

  CO/WRN NEB PANHANDLE.

   

  SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS WY AT 18Z WILL PUSH EWD THIS EVENING AS

  VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LIFTS NEWD. NUMERICAL

  MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONG SURFACE LOW /990MB/ NEWD

  INTO NWRN/NRN WY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL

  PLAINS...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DECAYING ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN NEB AS

  SURFACE WINDS TURN ESELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE

  APPROACHING TROUGH.

   

  IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW

  WILL LEAD TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS FAR SERN

  WY...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG/

  BY 00Z. ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BECOME EXTREMELY SHEARED BY 00Z WITH

  400-500 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.

  ONLY QUESTION FOR TORNADOES IS MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND

  MARGINALLY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS...BUT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT

  LEAST A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY

  TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SERN WY/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE AREA WHERE

  MOIST AXIS APPEARS TO BE ESTABLISHING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9

  C/KM WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /2”+/ WITH ANY ROTATING

  STORMS.

   

  AS 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS E-CENTRAL WY BETWEEN

  22-00Z...ANTICIPATE HIGH BASED CUMULUS TOWERS DEVELOPING PRESENTLY

  OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE TO EVOLVE INTO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS THEY

  MOVE ENEWD INTO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF

  FAR ERN/SERN WY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONT

  RANGE OF FAR NRN CO WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT IN NERN CO THIS

  EVENING.

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

This watch has just been issued for the same area:

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF  

   

         EASTERN WYOMING

   

  EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 800

  PM MDT.

   

  HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

  MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

   

  THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES

  EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GILLETTE

  WYOMING TO 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS WYOMING.

   

  REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

  FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

  PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING

  WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE

  WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE

  TORNADOES.

   

  DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE SHEAR NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ERN WY AS STRONG

  S/WV AND INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES ACROSS GREAT BASIN.  LOW LEVEL

  MOISTURE RAPIDLY MOVING NNWWD ACROSS ERN WY WITH AIR MASS BECOMING

  INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. WITH CAP WEAKENING RAPIDLY...SEVERE

  THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN ERN WY.  

  SUPERCELLS AND LIKELY ENHANCING THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND

  THREAT.

   

  AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

  TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

  KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

  MOTION VECTOR 23035

I hope you're heading that way chaser, it all looks very promising if you are :D

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Guest ChaserUK

I made it as far as Weld County in NE Colorado so was well within that area. In fact I was 130 miles N of a Supercell that apparently generated 8 tornadoes! I was watching another supercell to the N which had a wall cloud and a few brief funnel clouds and again spectacular lightning. Anyway, here is a map to confirm my current location and how far I made it today. Limon is were the tornadoes occured however to get there it would have meant 130 miles on dirt tracks and it was already getting dark.

CHASERLOCATION100504.jpg

12:49

We are currently located just to the N of Omaha heading W on the I680 towards Lincoln. From Lincoln, we intend to go West along the I80. Weather station is out of action as the cover blew off and water entered the unit. However, the vehicle has an outside thermometer and its currently 77F. Skies, fairly cloudy with some quite deep cu.

13:46

Heading out W along I80 towards Cheyenne in Wyoming. Temps currently 77F with a field of cu evident. Just spoke to Dave who just so happens to be heading in the same direction so my thoughts on where to play today have been somewhat verified.

15:57

Stopped at Elm Creek on the I80 still heading West. Pressure has started to drop I imagine as we head nearer to the LP centre. Temp 73F. Skies, mostly cloudy at the moment.

16:45

We are still heading W on I80 about 30 miles from North Platte in Lincoln County in SC NE.

17:05

Still on I80 and things are starting to happen. CU is building quite fast now and clumping together.

17:30

Still heading West on I80. Just spoke to both Stu and Dave who confirm there are storms firing, in particular two supercells. Advised to continue on I80 and then shift S on the I76 in an attempt to reach these cells. Convection defiantly increasing now with dark bases all over but we need to continue to reach the action. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the area in which we are heading.

18:44

Heading SW along I76 in Colorado towards “exploding supercells”. Can just see anvils to our S and SW at the moment. Spoke to both Stu who confirmed we will not miss anything heading in this direction. Also, spoke to Dave who stated that he is navigating some difficult roads so is a bit preoccupied – he will call us back shortly. Excitement is building!

19:16

Heading SW on I76 towards Denver. Massive supercell out to my W and one to my South. I can see a huge outflow boundary associated with the storm to my West. Dust and tumbleweeds blowing all over the place!

19:25

At Sterling, Logan County CO, we will take some small roads W hopefully to better position ourselves to see the rain free base.

19:36

Heading W along 14 through Sterling. Cell dead ahead and looking mean.

19:41

Just spoke to Dave who I believe is on the same cell. Dave has apparently had a few brief tornadoes and thinks the storm may be ready to produce a bigger tornado. Heading at speed along the 14 and I think the rainfree base is slowly coming into view to our SW. Just entering Weld County, CO.

19:54

Still heading W on 14 – just passed through Stoneham in Weld County, CO. Received a call from Stu who advised to head to Limon, however this is over 130 miles to our S on bad roads. Our cell has produced a couple of funnels so we decide to stick with it. Apparently the cell over Limon has produced a number of tornadoes!

21:06

Bust! We saw a few more brief funnel clouds but clearly the storm to our S was the one to be on. Currently negotiating through some pretty rough roads in Weld County in an attempt to get back onto the I80 to head towards Valentine, N NE for tomorrow.

21:31

Currently still tracking along dirt roads in Pawnee National Grassland towards the I80. Lightning in the distance and this cell looks like its organising.

Target for tomorrow is Valentine in north central Nebraska.

LOCATION:SIDNEY, SW NEBRASKA

TOTAL MILES TODAY: 700

TOTAL TRIP: 3100

DRIVE TIME TODAY: 12 HOURS

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