DAILY CHASE ACCOUNT 10/05/04

**Paul** · May 10, 2004

Not sure where Chaser is headed today but this has been issued for where I think he may go:

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN WY...NERN CO...WRN NEB PANHANDLE...FAR
SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 101904Z - 102130Z

ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS ERN WY BETWEEN

22-00Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES. WW

PROBABLE NEXT 1-3 HOURS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF FAR ERN WY/NERN

CO/WRN NEB PANHANDLE.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS WY AT 18Z WILL PUSH EWD THIS EVENING AS

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LIFTS NEWD. NUMERICAL

MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONG SURFACE LOW /990MB/ NEWD

INTO NWRN/NRN WY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL

PLAINS...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DECAYING ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN NEB AS

SURFACE WINDS TURN ESELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE

APPROACHING TROUGH.

IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW

WILL LEAD TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS FAR SERN

WY...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG/

BY 00Z. ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BECOME EXTREMELY SHEARED BY 00Z WITH

400-500 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.

ONLY QUESTION FOR TORNADOES IS MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND

MARGINALLY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS...BUT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT

LEAST A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY

TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SERN WY/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE AREA WHERE

MOIST AXIS APPEARS TO BE ESTABLISHING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9

C/KM WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /2”+/ WITH ANY ROTATING

STORMS.

AS 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS E-CENTRAL WY BETWEEN

22-00Z...ANTICIPATE HIGH BASED CUMULUS TOWERS DEVELOPING PRESENTLY

OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE TO EVOLVE INTO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS THEY

MOVE ENEWD INTO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF

FAR ERN/SERN WY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONT

RANGE OF FAR NRN CO WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT IN NERN CO THIS

EVENING.

**Paul** · May 10, 2004

This watch has just been issued for the same area:

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN WYOMING

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL 800

PM MDT.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70

MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES

EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF GILLETTE

WYOMING TO 85 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLAS WYOMING.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.

PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING

WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE

WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE

TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...IMPRESSIVE SHEAR NOW IN PLACE ACROSS ERN WY AS STRONG

S/WV AND INTENSIFYING LOW MOVES ACROSS GREAT BASIN. LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE RAPIDLY MOVING NNWWD ACROSS ERN WY WITH AIR MASS BECOMING

INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. WITH CAP WEAKENING RAPIDLY...SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD OFF HIGHER TERRAIN ERN WY.

SUPERCELLS AND LIKELY ENHANCING THE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND

THREAT.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 23035

I hope you're heading that way chaser, it all looks very promising if you are

May 11, 2004

I made it as far as Weld County in NE Colorado so was well within that area. In fact I was 130 miles N of a Supercell that apparently generated 8 tornadoes! I was watching another supercell to the N which had a wall cloud and a few brief funnel clouds and again spectacular lightning. Anyway, here is a map to confirm my current location and how far I made it today. Limon is were the tornadoes occured however to get there it would have meant 130 miles on dirt tracks and it was already getting dark.