Arctic Ice Discussion

[Rob]

Ok cheers guys Hasn't that happened in the past though, just not since humans have been around?? or something like that?

I believe so, i will stick with my opinion that this is just a natural phase, not human intervention.

[Geordiesnow]

I am going for 5.65 million..winter has hung on longer over here and predictions of a cold spring might have some effect.

The cold over the Arctic is not unusual though at this time of year and it does look like looking at the models we will see yet another warm pulse coming in from the Berings and covering quite a large part of the Arctic. Although I don't think we will lose too much in the way of ice, I do worry that it will lead to a quicker melt once the summer melting season starts to get going more.

Be interesting what the figures are like by the end of this week.

I think the lowest ice min will be around 5.40 million, just a pure guess as the Arctic is quite unpredictable to predict and my techinical knowledge is not good but after reading this thread for such a while now, you do learn quite a bit.

[4wd]

It's been said before but you can't read much into it during the main freeze and melt seasons.

It's surprising how the graph lines all bunch together in Spring and Autumn.

[Geordiesnow]

It's been said before but you can't read much into it during the main freeze and melt seasons.

It's surprising how the graph lines all bunch together in Spring and Autumn.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean 4wd to be honest, surely the melt season is critical to know the future state of the Arctic, the trend has generally been downwards and whilst we not reach 07 levels, you do feel we are not too far away from getting down to those levels. Whether or not we will get down to those levels remains to been but apparently we were pretty close last year with so much thin ice around.

The re-freeze extent is perhaps less important but one thing I have noticed during this year refreeze is that we have seen quite a few warm spells across the main part of the Arctic circle(most noticetably mid-January) and from what I learnt, this may lead too less thicker ice thus a quicker melt once the melting season gets into the full swings of things.

Another thing I have noticed is that cold uppers appears to be retreating much quicker this year which could also prove to be another negative for the summer melt season.

[songster]

Can't edit the top post any more for some reason - some kind of time out on it?

Predictions thus far:

stewfox: 6.125 million

cooling climate: 5.8 million

4wd: 5.75 million

cheeky_monkey: 5.65 million

Geordiesnow: 5.4 million

oldsnowywizard: 5 million

NorthNorfolkWeather: 4.8 million

Thundery wintry showers: 4.5 million

BornFromTheVoid: 4.3 million

Iceberg: 4.1 million

songster: 4 million

Graywolf: 3.5 million

[Gray-Wolf]

http://rapidfire.sci...1102.terra.250m

I feel the next two days will see the end of yon ice bridge?

EDIT: Oh!, and this;

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Variations_in_Greenland_Glaciers.html

Edited April 12, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[songster]

http://rapidfire.sci...1102.terra.250m

I feel the next two days will see the end of yon ice bridge?

Why do you say that? It looks identical to 10 days ago after the previous mini break-up. If anything, the cracks in it have sealed up.

http://rapidfire.sci...1092.terra.250m

[Edit: screwed up the URL]

Edited April 13, 2011 by songster

[VillagePlank]

Predictions thus far:

stewfox: 6.125 million

cooling climate: 5.8 million

4wd: 5.75 million

oldsnowywizard: 5 million

NorthNorfolkWeather: 4.8 million

Thundery wintry showers: 4.5 million

BornFromTheVoid: 4.3 million

Iceberg: 4.1 million

songster: 4 million

Graywolf: 3.5 million

Please stick me on a 6.2 million for the minimum this year.

(Low solar activity continues, and energy already in the system leaking out, with the most rapid 'leaking' already over and done with (last year, and the year before))

Edited April 13, 2011 by VillagePlank

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://rapidfire.sci...1102.terra.250m

I feel the next two days will see the end of yon ice bridge?

EDIT: Oh!, and this;

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Variations_in_Greenland_Glaciers.html

Gotta agree with Songster on the ice bridge, looking just as strong now as it did just after forming. Also, just as in recent days, the coldest air in the Arctic is sitting over it and not going anywhere fast. Is it the wind blowing through Nares that has you thinking it will go soon GW?

On a seperate note, the ice around the East Siberian and Chukchi sea is fracturing rather rapidly. Southerly winds already in place look set to continue for the next few days at least, dragging in milder and milder air which may bring surface temperature above 0C by the weekend.

[Turnedoutniceagain]

I believe so, i will stick with my opinion that this is just a natural phase, not human intervention.

Indeed. One assumes the Vikings weren't being ironic when they named their new territory "Greenland"

[songster]

Please stick me on a 6.2 million for the minimum this year.

(Low solar activity continues, and energy already in the system leaking out, with the most rapid 'leaking' already over and done with (last year, and the year before))

Will do next time I post an update. Looks like you can't edit a post after someone's replied to the thread.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/gallery_np.html

Setting up the north pole cam is in progress.

Nares ice bridge. I'll wait for the later images but you'll note that the front is no longer the 'calve front' from the slabs that fell off but a rather 'ragged' front edge. Back from the front edge you'll see a crevasse that runs from coastline to coastline and I feel the next stage of the collapse will be faulting from the front to the crevasse and a 'blocky collapse' to the line of the crevasse. From there I feel the remainder of the 'bridge' will rotate clockwise and float of into Baffin collapsing as it goes? (you'll not that the point of contact of the 'thick ice' forming the bridge now only has a small are of contact on the Greenland shore and that once the front is back to the crevasse there will be no contact of the thick ice with the shore?).

[songster]

Nares ice bridge. I'll wait for the later images but you'll note that the front is no longer the 'calve front' from the slabs that fell off but a rather 'ragged' front edge. Back from the front edge you'll see a crevasse that runs from coastline to coastline and I feel the next stage of the collapse will be faulting from the front to the crevasse and a 'blocky collapse' to the line of the crevasse.

What are you on about? Are you looking at the pictures in the wrong order?

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c02.2011092.terra.250m <-- 10 days ago, immediately after the last fracture

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c02.2011102.terra.250m <-- latest image

The ice bridge is in exactly the same position. The fissure just back from the front on day 92 has sealed up by day 102, or possibly it's just less visible due to sun angle. A small amount of ice has formed in front of the initial fracture line - note: not calving, it's not a glacier. This is most noticeable at the "top" end of the bridge in the orientation given (actually the western end), where there is new ice "filling in" the space between the fracture front and a small island.

[snowlover2009]

What are you on about? Are you looking at the pictures in the wrong order?

http://rapidfire.sci...1092.terra.250m <-- 10 days ago, immediately after the last fracture

http://rapidfire.sci...1102.terra.250m <-- latest image

The ice bridge is in exactly the same position. The fissure just back from the front on day 92 has sealed up by day 102, or possibly it's just less visible due to sun angle. A small amount of ice has formed in front of the initial fracture line - note: not calving, it's not a glacier. This is most noticeable at the "top" end of the bridge in the orientation given (actually the western end), where there is new ice "filling in" the space between the fracture front and a small island.

huh what are you talking about?

The fissure of counter back manifolder has changed if you look closely... The established wherebouts is all to play for if you follow?

[Gray-Wolf]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kane/201104130113.ASAR.jpg

You can see from this image of the ice bridge in the Kane basin (yesterday) the fissure I referred to running from the Greenland point of coastal contact into the body of the ice bridge. On the 'Modis' images you need a low angle sun to highlight (by shadows in the snow) the impression of this breach on the surface.

The image also shows well the makeup of the ice to the rear of the plug and the movement there (opening up leads and pulling back from the plug).

[stewfox]

Please stick me on a 6.2 million for the minimum this year.

(Low solar activity continues, and energy already in the system leaking out, with the most rapid 'leaking' already over and done with (last year, and the year before))

Too late now to go at 6.5m

But someone should tell that little red fella he should start going south :unsure:

http://www.ijis.iarc...ce_Extent_L.png

Lost 20,000 kms last 10 days cf 400,000 in 2003 for the same period

Edited April 14, 2011 by stewfox

[The PIT]

Artic ice now falling off and now joint fourth highest or lowest (since 2002) depending how you want too review the present state. http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent_L.png. Dunno how low it's going to go none of us do however I doubt it will be zero as some wish deep down. Hopefully they'll be a leisurely fall without any large plunges.

Barents sea and the sea of Okhotsk seem to be the main melting areas while Baffin and Bearing seem to have forgotten it's spring.

Edited April 21, 2011 by The PIT

[stewfox]

Artic ice now falling off and now joint fourth highest or lowest (since 2002) depending how you want too review the present state. http://www.ijis.iarc...e_Extent_L.png. Dunno how low it's going to go none of us do however I doubt it will be zero as some wish deep down. Hopefully they'll be a leisurely fall without any large plunges.

Barents sea and the sea of Okhotsk seem to be the main melting areas while Baffin and Bearing seem to have forgotten it's spring.

To be honest I don't expect any significant developments until end of June early July when we start to see serious spreads on IJIS figures and the like..

Older thicker ice has increased some what from last year.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Will be interesting to see if that melts out.

[Gray-Wolf]

As we know from previous years all ice below 2.5m thickness is at risk from in-situ melt out regardless of it's age. at present over 90% of the pack is 2.5m or less so I would expect widespread and rapid melt to occur from mid May onward. The dreaded Arctic dipole also seems to be putting in an appearance at present and, should this pattern persist, we could start to see an 07' type melt without the thick paleocrystic ice that endured that years melt being present in the basin this year?

We will know by late July just how low we can expect the final 'extent' figure to fall to and I am concerned that this will be a sub 4 million figure and will leave little or no 'older ice' come sept.

The natural 'variation' that the summer weather brings with it will leave us with some years doing better than other in holding onto ice but I do not see any ice lasting 4 years or more due to the new , more dynamic, pack with ice flowing out of the basin all year and the Beaufort gyre/trans polar drift effectively capturing and this shipping out the oldest ice (where once this would become trapped and formed the massive banks of aleocryistic we knew in our childhoods).

[The PIT]

Ah only ten percent of ice left at the end of the season then.

[pottyprof]

What happened to the new ice volume data that you were talking about GW? I would have thought they would have some data available by now... Any idea?

[Gray-Wolf]

Ah only ten percent of ice left at the end of the season then.

My understanding is that we could face such Pit? If we take out the Paleocrystic that weathered the 07' storm then this is the amount we would have been left with back then .This year all of that ice is gone and we have less than 5% of such ice scattered around the basin (in bays and inlets).

The other factor is the opening of the Canadian Archipelago for ice export into Baffin (and melt) so we have virtually no durable ice (if we are to face a di-pole like 07') and more scope for that setup to export ice from the basin.

As I have said, we need wait for mid-July to see where we are (extent wise), ATM the setup has allowed for the retention of the ice around the Canadian/Greenland sectors but the same setup ,with a strengthening sun, will provide the opposite (with clear skies and a 24hr sun beating down).

I tend to think you will not accept the same as I do regarding the state of the Arctic ,Pit, without seeing the corpse first? Maybe this year will provide you such an opportunity?

What happened to the new ice volume data that you were talking about GW? I would have thought they would have some data available by now... Any idea?

You can apply for access to the data P.P.but the volume of data tends to mangle my P.C.

That said I'm sure the likes of JAXA and NSIDC will be on with providing us with a more 'user friendly' version of the data stream?

If your PC is up to it (and your will to supply them with your details /credentials) you should check out the ESA site for access and software?

Edited April 26, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[songster]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/images/MODIS/Kane/201104270103.ASAR.jpg

Ice bridge still looks unchanged.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...270103.ASAR.jpg

Ice bridge still looks unchanged.

Very much so songster! I , for one ,did not feel it had such integrity after the initial collapse but then it has stayed a little nippy up there over the past few Weeks? With the surge towards spring now ongoing it will be only a matter of time before either wind or melt undoes it's icy grip. If you look at the ice to the rear

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...270103.ASAR.jpg

you can see how weak it is (in comparison) being an agglomeration of old ice bits and bats in a matrix of skimpy FY ice.

EDIT: My bet is still on that eastern contact with Greenland giving way and the 'bridge' rotating and flowing into Baffin (whilst disintegrating) before it melts out. Remember we saw 200ft thick sections of Petermann pass through there last Sept so there is no issue with it's depth etc.

Edited April 27, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[oldsnowywizard]

I though it wouldn't matter if it was cold Gw it would have continued to fall apart?

Anywho the cold continues over hudson (a late freeze and a late melt) . The main cold area will move over the basin so in the right place for the last weeks of winter up there. A greeny high should blow milder air up into Baffin however this should also help compact the ice a little and stop the dreaded flow out of Baffin as GW fears... (at least for a little while). A slack northerly the other side of Greenland shouldn't have too much impact on ice flow. All in all not a bad ending up there and it will be interesting to see how things pan out.