Arctic Ice Discussion

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.arctic.no...npole/index.php

Whoa!!!! take a look at web cam 2 since the 30th of May 'till today! Pretty dynamic eh? There must have been a lot of drift to rip open that lead but todays (June 4th) image of the pressure ridges and towering blocks show us that the ice has now smashed back together (and How!). Surely this displays a very thin pack (both the lead and the ability to over-ride/upend can not occur with contiguous 3,+ ice?( unless a lotalotta force!).

Ice Free Geographic pole this year anyone? (and camera's in the drink!)

If i've uploaded correctly then there's 2 mins between these images from earlier yesterday!

and again.

pretty fast moving ( huge swathes of) ice eh?

Edited June 4, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[picog]

Is this a pressure ridge with a melt pool to its left side?

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa2.jpg

[cooling climate]

http://www.arctic.no...npole/index.php

Whoa!!!! take a look at web cam 2 since the 30th of May 'till today! Pretty dynamic eh? There must have been a lot of drift to rip open that lead but todays (June 4th) image of the pressure ridges and towering blocks show us that the ice has now smashed back together (and How!). Surely this displays a very thin pack (both the lead and the ability to over-ride/upend can not occur with contiguous 3,+ ice?( unless a lotalotta force!).

Ice Free Geographic pole this year anyone? (and camera's in the drink!)

If i've uploaded correctly then there's 2 mins between these images from earlier yesterday!

and again.

pretty fast moving ( huge swathes of) ice eh?

Jumping to the wrong conclusions again I feel but by now we all know what to expect

from your posts so it should come as no surprise really.

Is this a pressure ridge with a melt pool to its left side?

http://www.arctic.no...atest/noaa2.jpg

No melt pools from what I can see just yet.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks as though we may be entering a period with conditions quite conducive for anomalously high melt rates. As of today, a strong northerly flow through Fram Strait is beginning which will last for at least 4 days.

After that we then have some relatively warm 850hPa temps spreading across the Arctic, with much covered with uppers above 0C by the 11th

And surface temps mostly above 0C also

At the moment it looks as though conditions will be worse than last year where we spent June as lowest extent on record. If the the extent can remain above the 2010 figure for June, despite what I mentioned above (especially if it lasts for much longer), then it's resiliance may be stronger than originally anticipated.

Here is the 850hPa charts from the 11th last year to compare

[Gray-Wolf]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

May's update now in.

The north pole cam 2 seems to have been picked up by many of the sites/commentries I read.All seem agreed on the ice movement beyond the lead being quite dynamic!

[picog]

http://nsidc.org/arc...news/index.html

May's update now in.

The north pole cam 2 seems to have been picked up by many of the sites/commentries I read.All seem agreed on the ice movement beyond the lead being quite dynamic!

Is that open sea on web cam 2 today?

[4wd]

There's a narrow band of open water, it hasn't 'melted' - just a fracture from ice movement which could close again as quickly as it opened.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's looking from the current GFS runs as if the dipole anomaly will be setting up shop for most of June...

[Gray-Wolf]

Is that open sea on web cam 2 today?

Hi Pic!

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/latest/noaa2.jpg

Still an open lead but the ice/snowscape beyond the lead is changing every day (and looks quite messsed up with pressure ridges and upturned slabs of ice). Though 4wd is right in that 'Leads' can open and close in hours they can also be many km across and form in 'set' locations due to current/prevailing winds. I've seen leads at the pole many times from sat. coverage and ,of course, the subs always choose leads/healed leads to surface under but this is my 'first' web cam lead (apart from a brief Cam1 appearance in early May!).

With the Di-pole setting up this lead may well persist as the ice drifts south toward Fram. With such thin ice the transit may be rapid and prove a mechanism for further breakup as it travels ( due to shorelines compressing the flow ).

The Di-pole is what brought us 07's 'exports' so we may start to see hefty losses over the coming weeks. Hudson/Baffin will also be melting out so the daily figures for ice loss may be interesting?

[Iceberg]

It's looking from the current GFS runs as if the dipole anomaly will be setting up shop for most of June...

Thanks for that post I noticed that TWS, but was loath to mention it as I didn't was to seem to be a doom monger.

GW noticed the large melt pools north of the Petterson on modis ?

[BornFromTheVoid]

With warmer than average ssts along the east Greenland coast, any ice flowing through Fram will have a tougher time lasting than usual

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks for that post I noticed that TWS, but was loath to mention it as I didn't was to seem to be a doom monger.

GW noticed the large melt pools north of the Petterson on modis ?

Sorry Ice , you'll need to be more specific as I'm not sure I know where 'Petterson' is ?I've noted the melt at the head of Petermann on the north coast of Greenland though?

http://www.woksat.info/etctf08/tf08-1101-c-grn-n.html

http://rapidfire.sci...184000.250m.jpg

and it seems odd that the sheltered N coast should be so melted out already???

Edited June 9, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[Iceberg]

Yes sorry thinking about somebody at work when I wrote that....

I ment Petermann.

[Gray-Wolf]

Phew!!! I thought I'd missed something!

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/single.php?2011159/crefl1_143.A2011159052000-2011159052500.250m.jpg

The other Area is the Alaskan shore of the Beaufort sea (Amundson Gulf to point Barrow). With the di-pole in place the ice will be further drawn off this coast and into the middle of the basin where it will be 'conveyored' to Fram. As noted the warm NAD waters up the east coast of Greenland will make short work of it there.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The current synoptic pattern across the Arctic differs slightly from the conventional "dipole anomaly" pattern in that high pressure is centred further south and east, mostly around eastern Greenland. However, we still have the issue of persistent low pressure over northern Eurasia which is promoting southerly winds across eastern Eurasia, and extensive high pressure encouraging clearer skies, in turn encouraging ice melt.

The outlook for the coming 8 days has a cold pool persisting around the North Pole and extending across much of our side of the Arctic so we may see limited melt in those areas, and Greenland is consistently reporting below-average temperatures. However there is a risk of some serious ice losses occurring in Siberia if the current pattern keeps up.

[songster]

I'm worried to see that extent is tracking 2010 so closely despite Hudson Bay being well above last year - that suggests that this year's melt to date is in more central regions, and we're in for a world of hurt when Hudson Bay melts out in the next month or so.

[jethro]

I'm worried to see that extent is tracking 2010 so closely despite Hudson Bay being well above last year - that suggests that this year's melt to date is in more central regions, and we're in for a world of hurt when Hudson Bay melts out in the next month or so.

Can you please explain what you mean with "a world of hurt"?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm pretty sure he probably means a rapid fall in sea ice extent taking us below last year's value. At the moment I think we have a significant chance of challenging the 2007 record unless synoptic patterns in the Arctic become less unfavourable, particularly regarding the northern Eurasian low.

[PersianPaladin]

Can you please explain what you mean with "a world of hurt"?

I think he also forgets that most of the ice is below the water-level

[songster]

This is a thread about Arctic sea ice extent. "A world of hurt" means the likelihood of record low ice extent. So much should be bleeding obvious from context. I don't particularly see what water level has to do with it - I'm not talking about a rise in sea level. That would clearly be silly, in a thread about Arctic sea ice.

[jethro]

This is a thread about Arctic sea ice extent. "A world of hurt" means the likelihood of record low ice extent. So much should be bleeding obvious from context. I don't particularly see what water level has to do with it - I'm not talking about a rise in sea level. That would clearly be silly, in a thread about Arctic sea ice.

It's not that obvious. This thread not only charts the levels of ice but the implications this may have on the world.

There has been a lot of speculation about our winter weather being as a consequence of the level of summer ice, it has been implicated by some as the cause of, or at least contributing to the cold, snowy weather we've experienced over the last couple of winters - you could have been alluding to that and predicting another cold, snowy one to come.

There has also been lots of speculation about the dilution of the salinity of the sea water and the impact this may have on the Gulf Stream - you could have been speculating on a possible shut-down or slowing and the resulting impact this would have.

Arctic wildlife is also affected by ice levels - you could have been talking about the loss of habitat and the problems the Polar Bear may face as a consequence.

There is concern about Methane release from the thawing perma-frost, again this could have been your concern.

These are just a few of the things this thread covers; it's a bit difficult to give a pertinent reply to a post if it is unclear what the topic of the time is referring to.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd tend to agree with songster and TWS. If we can still be mirroring 2010 yet have a lot of ice in Hudson then we do have lot of vulnerable ice being kept intact by abnormal low temps in some regions. It will only take a move towards 'normal temps' for a few days for the ice to go in rapid order. Seeing as we are already tracking the 'lowest' plot yet still have ice in lower Lat's then the 'losses' have to be in the higher Arctic.

All in all not a good precursor to July's melt?

EDIT: Oh! and ARCUS is out;

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2011/june

Between 4 and 5 million seems to be the consensus. I'd be favouring the lower side of that!!!

Edited June 14, 2011 by Gray-Wolf

[4wd]

It's still very difficult to melt the central area for more than 4 to 6 weeks.

Especially if we are seeing 'abnormally low' temperatures.

[Gray-Wolf]

It's still very difficult to melt the central area for more than 4 to 6 weeks.

Especially if we are seeing 'abnormally low' temperatures.

Many folk point out the increase in Pacific waters entering the basin and the 'basal melt' that this warm water brings with it. The trans-polar drift brings this 'warm water straight under the pole and no matter what the temps are above the base is in warm water.

The other thing being the dynamism of the surface. We saw Pole cam 2 in the Fram straights by Nov last year so the odds of bering side drifteing to the pole and the pole ice drifting towards Fram are also to be considered?

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the central area will take a while to melt with the cold pool staying in place near the North Pole but I am wary of the possibility of rapid melting over Siberia and pushing of ice towards the North Pole via southerly winds. Last year there was a lot of ice near the pole that only just survived.

If I had to make a prediction it would be 4.4 million square kilometres, only just staying above the 2007 minimum.