Chase 2011 - Day 3 Discussion

Paul Sherman · May 2, 2011

Starting today in Monticelli in SE Arkansas and will give the Slight Risk a try today through once again testing chase conditions. Chase target to come later today.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1229 PM CDT SUN MAY 01 2011

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS LA...CNTRL TO NERN MS

AND NW AL...

...LOWER MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO

THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SOUTHWEST

FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NEWD INTO THE CNTRL

APPALACHIAN MTNS CO-LOCATED WITH A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. AN MCS

SHOULD BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING ON THE NRN SIDE OF THE LOW-LEVEL

JET FROM NORTH TX NEWD INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. SWD ACROSS THE WARM

SECTOR...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS

FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F. AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND MOISTURE

ADVECTION CONTINUES MONDAY...SCATTERED SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS

SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE MOIST AXIS AND NEAR A COLD FRONT WITH

CONVECTION MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE

AFTERNOON.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT MIDDAY MONDAY SHOW A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE

INSTABILITY IN LA AND SCNTRL MS...DEVELOPING THIS INSTABILITY NEWD

INTO NE MS AND NW AL BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE

FORECAST TO REACH 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS SHOULD COINCIDE WITH 40 TO

50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE SERN EDGE OF A BROAD MID-LEVEL

JET. THE SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE

THREAT AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED

SUPERCELL THREAT MAY EXIST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING

WHEN INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE MAXIMIZED AND MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY

BECOME ENHANCED DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ALTHOUGH

AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...THE STEEP

LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD FAVOR

WIND DAMAGE AS THE MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR

ESPECIALLY IF A SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT

SHOULD BE LOCATED FROM CNTRL LA NEWD INTO CNTRL MS AND NW AL WHERE A

SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN ADDED.

FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...STRONG

DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A

SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS INITIATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER THAN AREAS TO THE

SOUTHWEST SUGGESTING THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.

Paul Sherman · May 2, 2011

Overnight models have the same scenario as yesterday with not much to chase unless you want to stay in cold grey skies all day, so with this in mind will be heading back west towards the DFW Metro and stay at Decatur tonight. Looking like a huge warm up middle of this week and some action from later this week into the weekend.

Big Texan tomorrow night

gpspete · May 2, 2011

Overnight models have the same scenario as yesterday with not much to chase unless you want to stay in cold grey skies all day, so with this in mind will be heading back west towards the DFW Metro and stay at Decatur tonight. Looking like a huge warm up middle of this week and some action from later this week into the weekend.

Big Texan tomorrow night

Big Texan yeh i hope we get there on tour 2 some time i have orders for there Texas Armadilos got leave room in my bag for them grandaughter wants one