Tropical Storm Aere

[Somerset Squall]

The third tropical depression of the Western Pacific season has formed from invest 93W, east of the Philippines. 03W has a broad LLC but well organised convection and improving banding. Intensity is 25kts. Due to the broad nature of the LLC, strengthening will be slow despite a favourable environment characterised by low shear, fair outflow and warm sea temperatures. JTWC forecast a peak of 50kts before landfall on the coast of Luzon. Land interaction and increasing shear by day 4 and 5 will weaken the storm.

[Somerset Squall]

03W has become the first named storm of the season. The system has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Aere with intensity rising to 45kts. Aere is unleashing heavy rains over the Philippines and these rains are unlikely to subside over the coming days as the cyclone hugs land. Aere has a shot at becoming a typhoon prior to the first landfall. Aere certainly is already developing a CDO feature flanked by good banding.

[Somerset Squall]

Hugging land, Aere has only strengthened slightly to 50kts overnight. For this reason, Aere is unlikely to make it to typhoon intensity now, as landfall is not far away. When Aere emerges over water north of Luzon, shear is expected to increase dramatically which will stop any re-intensification. With waters cooling at this lattitude, extratropical transition should occur. There is a change Aere could dissipate before this transition is complete.

Despite the centre not actuallly making landfall, TS Aere has berought severe flooding to the Philippines and unfortunately, 6 deaths:

http://www.sunstar.com.ph/manila/local-news/2011/05/08/tropical-storm-bebeng-kills-6-154234

[onlyME]

Aere passed through extreme eastern Luzon today,and it is now a 45 mph TS.

Convection weakened overland.

Aere looks SW-NE elongated.

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, the land interaction with the rugged terrain of Luzon has clearly taken it's toll on the circulation of Aere. Convection has reduced considerably too. However, Aere is still expected to be a weak tropical storm once it clears Luzon and will then accelerate northeastwards into the mid-lattitude westerlies and become a weak extratropical storm south of Japan.

[onlyME]

Aere today passed a little west of Kadena AB.

It isn't much left of it.

The westerly shear and trough is impacting the storm.

The tongue of dry air from Gobi Desert entered the circulation of Aere.

Center is exposed to west of moderate convection.

Aere has winds of 40 mph and it will keep its strength despite unfavorable environment and it will slowly undergo extratropical transition.

[onlyME]

Aere became extratropical today as it tracked rapidly northeastward off the coast of Japan.