Express Headline 21/05 - Netweather In The Paper

[Bottesford]

I don't like excessive heat in the UK because it quickly turns humid - sleepless nights and all that - but i like long hot sunny days when i'm in the Med or Canaries.

Don't ever go to SE Asia or South America then where you'll find real humidity and heat!

Can't say I find UK heat ever unbearable. It's very very rarely above 18-19c at night so really it just comes down to house construction. When your on holiday in the Med the houses/hotels are designed to keep their cool unlike your thermally insulated UK home.

I have done 25c+ nights in Barbados and yes it is very hot for sleeping. A/C sorts that out of course but I know I prefer it when temperatures are cool enough to sleep ok no A/C needed but warm enough to keep windows open all night without a chill. So around 16-18c mins coupled with reasonable humidity.

[weather12]

Personally, I think that if you are a meteorologist with 12 years experience then you should declare who you work for. (Just in case there is any competitive commercial interest in your posts.....though I am sure there is not!)

Otherwise I see no harm in releasing public lrf with explanations with information of how they are derived. Otherwise one could claim to have predicted a perfect seasonal forecast retrospectively ..... surely it is better to be open with your way of thinking?

c

PS one of the biggest criticisms that I have of previous met office lrf's was the fact that no reasoning was given to how they were derived. If the reasoning is sound but the forecast is out then fair enough - at least one can say that the forecast is based on sound reasoning.

This is a forum to discuss / debate weather issues. I have no competitive commercial interests and will not declare who I work for... that has nothing to do with the topic.

[johnholmes]

I don't believe it's possible, certainly not in our lifetime anyway!

I think behind the scenes research into lrf is fair enough, but I disagree with it all being in public. It's very misleading and there's absolutely no proof it works.

The biggest organisations cant even forecast a few days in advance, let alone out to 10-20 days... out to 60-70-80-90 days... not a chance.

I studied for my GCSE's and got my A-Levels at the best sixth form college in the country. I studied natural sciences for 4 years and certified with BSc (Honours).

thanks for that 12

I would disagree anyway with your assertion that the 'biggest organisations cannot even forecast a few days in advance'. I assume, perhaps wrongly,that you include the Met O? I also assume, again perhaps wrongly, that such criticism suggests you have not had any training with them?

Maybe if you are unwilling to discuss these items in the open we could carry on via pm?

I am genuinely interested in your forecaster experiences.

[SP1986]

Sorry Weather12, but I do not buy that you are a forecaster. Sorry for sounding so obtuse but you're going to have to prove as such, because I really don't see a professional Meteorologist behaving in the way that you have in this thread.

Again no disrespect meant, but if you are then for me to believe you, you are going to need to;

a) State your name

b ) State your position

c) Notify of which department you work in

d) Tell us the company you work for.

It's only fair.

If you can prove it then I will hold my hands up and admittedly apologise to you for my ill judgement.

[weather12]

thanks for that 12

I would disagree anyway with your assertion that the 'biggest organisations cannot even forecast a few days in advance'. I assume, perhaps wrongly,that you include the Met O? I also assume, again perhaps wrongly, that such criticism suggests you have not had any training with them?

Maybe if you are unwilling to discuss these items in the open we could carry on via pm?

I am genuinely interested in your forecaster experiences.

Sure, go for it!

[ZONE 51]

Undercover work!

I dont want people knowing my true identity. I'm like the stig of the weather world ;-)

well this is becoming rather exciting weather12, and welcome to the forums!! since reading your posts i was wondering that you may just be someone checking out what we say!! but then how would i know what you do as theres no info in your profile, but as you are undercover then its sensible to not!

Edited June 3, 2011 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Nick L]

Sorry Weather12, but I do not buy that you are a forecaster. Sorry for sounding so obtuse but you're going to have to prove as such, because I really don't see a professional Meteorologist behaving in the way that you have in this thread.

Again no disrespect meant, but if you are then for me to believe you, you are going to need to;

a) State your name

b ) State your position

c) Notify of which department you work in

d) Tell us the company you work for.

It's only fair.

If you can prove it then I will hold my hands up and admittedly apologise to you for my ill judgement.

Agreed. I don't think it's unreasonable to give some basic details of your job in Meteorology on a weather forum! Anyone can just claim to be a forecaster and people may take their comments more seriously than others.

[Summer Sun]

Yes come on weather12 untill you prove you're a forecaster I for one won't believe it.

[weather12]

Yes come on weather12 untill you prove you're a forecaster I for one won't believe it.

Guys, drop it. I wont be doing so.

[Radiating Dendrite]

Guys, drop it. I wont be doing so.

Fair enough, but people will simply refuse to believe you are a forecaster.

[weather12]

Fair enough, but people will simply refuse to believe you are a forecaster.

Well that's their problem then isnt it, not mine.

I know full well what people are like... vultures around prey!

If i give out my details, there will be users on here that'll want to use it as amunition against me (with nasty remarks and comments) simply because I have a different opinion to everyone else.

[Nick L]

Well that's their problem then isnt it, not mine.

I know full well what people are like... vultures around prey!

If i give out my details, there will be users on here that'll want to use it as amunition against me (with nasty remarks and comments) simply because I have a different opinion to everyone else.

I don't really understand that logic, if we know you're a qualified forecaster we are more likely to listen to you and look for your posts for accuracy, but never mind.

[chionomaniac]

Well that's their problem then isnt it, not mine.

I know full well what people are like... vultures around prey!

If i give out my details, there will be users on here that'll want to use it as amunition against me (with nasty remarks and comments) simply because I have a different opinion to everyone else.

Most meteorologists who join weather forums, in my experience, demonstrate a thorough understanding of meteorology in their postings and are more inclined to want to discuss these aspects. I find it difficult to believe that a Daily Express reading meteorologist would find it important enough to come and spend time dissing long range forecasts and calling Jonathon Powell a 'tit'. I would consider that unprofessional in itself, so you are most definitely an exception to the rule!

Edited June 3, 2011 by chionomaniac

[Evening thunder]

Shades of 1976... is that not a netweather headline grabber? It's certainly not a newspaper headline.

And besides, why deal with the likes of the Daily Express etc when you know full well they'll twist your story? Setting yourself up for a fall every time.

Like i said, if it all goes right we wont hear the end of it!

If it all goes wrong, it'll be swept under the carpet, never to be heard of again!

I'm not quite sure that is correct, at least not with Netweather. Perhaps the fact that they got the genereal trends right last winter, I.e cold start and mild end, and got the mixed nature of the summer last year correct but you apparently haven't heard that may be evidence that you won't necessarily hear no end of it? In my experience the longer range forecasts of netweather have shown me that some sort of breakthrough can be made, and some long range forecasts are not completely useless. This is shown by most of the postings looking beyond a week or 2, by Glacier Point, and there have been quite a lot, have mostly been correct in my experience. Not every single time, but far more often than 'random chance' would suggest.

Not all of us are completely gullable to accept these ridiculous headline grabbers.

With regards to the grammar, 'its not beyond the realms of possibility'... it's not beyond the realms of possibility a space ship might land on planet earth tomorrow... it's not beyond the realms of possibility we'll get snow next week... i always thought the idea of a forecast is to actually stick your neck on the line and tell us exactly what you think the prospects are. Sitting on the fence / feline footing around the idea is pretty wimpish!

[Well that's kind of the point he was making I'd think, if he said 'There's no chance' hed be lying because no one could say there's 0% chance any year}

And before you criticise me, i am highly respected in my field of work and I have said time and time again, long range forecasts are useless.

There are 2 sides to an argument / debate my friend and there is no intention to make it an unpleasant or nasty place to be.

What was you're field of work again?

I can actually see where you're coming from thinking they are useless, I believed the weather was far too variable with too many factors for them to be much use, but have been shown this is not really the case. Though I still do believe it is in some aspects. Though As you probably know apparently being a meteorologist long range forecasting is different to short term forecasting. You can look at anomalies like sea surface temps, El Nino/La Nina, and factor in effects that these are known to have, or have usually had in the past, and arrive at a conclusion of a most likely scenario of a General trend. Of course a forecast like this is not going to tell you what the weather will be at 3pm on the 27th July, or a specific day or even week, like short term forecasts try to do and pick out the detail. Just the more likely trend I.e a trend to more high pressure.

Like all forecasts of course they will not always be correct, especially as they are experimental. But if no one does them they will never improve, and we would not have any forecasts today if no one had ever bothered.

Some 'companies' do seem to be headline grabbers and predict things that most just know aren't going to happen, like saying it will be 31C this weekend for instance, or random 2 week heatwaves and saying at the end of last July that it would reach 40C in August. (Yes PWS, I'm looking at you. ) IMO them/the papers shouldn't be allowed to print and twist that and damage the reputation of other forecasters because Joe public can't tell the difference between them or Netweather

But to come on here and post 10's of posts all day ridiculing a forecast before it happens, and when you don't know the sites history, doesn't do much for your reputation if you are meteorologist IMO.

Edit: ah internets working again, what I forgot to add is I'm not against you're belief that long range forecasts aren't much use, I just don't think the way you've come on this thread is very pretty, for want of a better expression.

Edited June 3, 2011 by Stormmad26

[weather12]

I'm not quite sure that is correct, at least not with Netweather. Perhaps the fact that they got the genereal trends right last winter, I.e cold start and mild end, and got the mixed nature of the summer last year correct but you apparently haven't heard that may be evidence that you won't necessarily hear no end of it? In my experience the longer range forecasts of netweather have shown me that some sort of breakthrough can be made, and some long range forecasts are not completely useless. This is shown by most of the postings looking beyond a week or 2, by Glacier Point, and there have been quite a lot, have mostly been correct in my experience. Not every single time, but far more often than 'random chance' would suggest.

What was you're field of work again?

I can actually see where you're coming from thinking they are useless, I believed the weather was far too variable with too many factors for them to be much use, but have been shown this is not really the case. Though I still do believe it is in some aspects. Though As you probably know apparently being a meteorologist long range forecasting is different to short term forecasting. You can look at anomalies like sea surface temps, El Nino/La Nina, and factor in effects that these are known to have, or have usually had in the past, and arrive at a conclusion of a most likely scenario of a General trend. Of course a forecast like this is not going to tell you what the weather will be at 3pm on the 27th July, or a specific day or even week, like short term forecasts try to do and pick out the detail. Just the more likely trend I.e a trend to more high pressure.

Like all forecasts of course they will not always be correct, especially as they are experimental. But if no one does them they will never improve, and we would not have any forecasts today if no one had ever bothered.

Some 'companies' do seem to be headline grabbers and predict things that most just know aren't going to happen, like saying it will be 31C this weekend for instance, or random 2 week heatwaves and saying at the end of last July that it would reach 40C in August. (Yes PWS, I'm looking at you. ) IMO them/the papers shouldn't be allowed to print and twist that and damage the reputation of other forecasters because Joe public can't tell the difference between them or Netweather

But to come on here and post 10's of posts all day ridiculing a forecast before it happens, and when you don't know the sites history, doesn't do much for your reputation if you are meteorologist IMO.

Edit: ah internets working again, what I forgot to add is I'm not against you're belief that long range forecasts aren't much use, I just don't think the way you've come on this thread is very pretty, for want of a better expression.

Thanks for your opinion...

I think it's very difficult to come across to people on this site. 99.9% of them agree with lrf's, so i'm always going to receive flack and negative comments.

[chionomaniac]

Thanks for your opinion...

I think it's very difficult to come across to people on this site. 99.9% of them agree with lrf's, so i'm always going to receive flack and negative comments.

I don't think that is necessarily so. I am quite sure it is possible to disagree with lrf's without attracting flack and negative comments.

[Summer Sun]

Guys, drop it. I wont be doing so.

Well that's up to you but many won't believe you untill you do so, 2 minutes to type those details would see your reputation jump untill you do so people won't believe you're a forecaster.

Edited June 3, 2011 by Gavin D

[weather12]

Well that's up to you but many won't believe you untill you do so, 2 minutes to type those details would see your reputation jump untill you do so people won't believe you're a forecaster.

Well again, that's their problem not mine isnt it.

[TEITS]

I am a meteorologist with 12 years experience in the field.

Based on your replies I very much doubt the above. Before I correct your many mistakes let me just comment on the NW forecasts.

The NW forecasts are never produced with the intention of grabbing headlines. If you have read previous NW LRF you will know this to be true. Also if you have read recent NW forecasts you would of noticed how incredible accurate they have been. I was rather critical of last winters forecast back in Dec but was left with egg on my face come March!

As for LRF being useless and im afraid this is where I question your qualifications on the subject. There is a world of difference between a LRF predicting detailed events on particular days compared to a LRF that only predicts the general trends i.e synoptics, temps, rainfall etc. I have said many times on this forum that any detailed LRF i.e predicting snow on xmas day in October, is a waste of time and doing this discredits the forecast and makes it appear to be a hopecast. Now if you read the NW LRF they never make such predictions. The forecasts mainly describe the general synoptic weather patterns and whether temps,rainfall will be above, below, around average. This in my opinion is perfectly possible using the forecasting techniques that GP uses, as has been proven in recent years.

[weather12]

Based on your replies I very much doubt the above. Before I correct your many mistakes let me just comment on the NW forecasts.

The NW forecasts are never produced with the intention of grabbing headlines. If you have read previous NW LRF you will know this to be true. Also if you have read recent NW forecasts you would of noticed how incredible accurate they have been. I was rather critical of last winters forecast back in Dec but was left with egg on my face come March!

As for LRF being useless and im afraid this is where I question your qualifications on the subject. There is a world of difference between a LRF predicting detailed events on particular days compared to a LRF that only predicts the general trends i.e synoptics, temps, rainfall etc. I have said many times on this forum that any detailed LRF i.e predicting snow on xmas day in October, is a waste of time and doing this discredits the forecast and makes it appear to be a hopecast. Now if you read the NW LRF they never make such predictions. The forecasts mainly describe the general synoptic weather patterns and whether temps,rainfall will be above, below, around average. This in my opinion is perfectly possible using the forecasting techniques that GP uses, as has been proven in recent years.

Well, we will see...

Charts dont look at all promising for the month of June.

'Within the summer, we expect the core of the hot and settled weather to occur during June and July, particularly June which we think will be very pleasant with high pressure in charge across much of western Europe and the UK'.

Based on your replies I very much doubt the above. Before I correct your many mistakes let me just comment on the NW forecasts.

The NW forecasts are never produced with the intention of grabbing headlines. If you have read previous NW LRF you will know this to be true. Also if you have read recent NW forecasts you would of noticed how incredible accurate they have been. I was rather critical of last winters forecast back in Dec but was left with egg on my face come March!

As for LRF being useless and im afraid this is where I question your qualifications on the subject. There is a world of difference between a LRF predicting detailed events on particular days compared to a LRF that only predicts the general trends i.e synoptics, temps, rainfall etc. I have said many times on this forum that any detailed LRF i.e predicting snow on xmas day in October, is a waste of time and doing this discredits the forecast and makes it appear to be a hopecast. Now if you read the NW LRF they never make such predictions. The forecasts mainly describe the general synoptic weather patterns and whether temps,rainfall will be above, below, around average. This in my opinion is perfectly possible using the forecasting techniques that GP uses, as has been proven in recent years.

Headlines are designed to attract the eye, otherwise people wouldn't bother to read the stories!

[Nick L]

Well, we will see...

Charts dont look at all promising for the month of June.

'Within the summer, we expect the core of the hot and settled weather to occur during June and July, particularly June which we think will be very pleasant with high pressure in charge across much of western Europe and the UK'.

Headlines are designed to attract the eye, otherwise people wouldn't bother to read the stories!

As a "qualified Meteorologist", surely you of all people would know better than to dismiss a whole month based on a few model runs. We are only a few days into June, and I thought you said you didn't believe in longer range predictions?

People on this forum will have still read the forecast if it was titled "Summer 2011 forecast" because they were looking forward to seeing it anyway!

[weather12]

As a "qualified Meteorologist", surely you of all people would know better than to dismiss a whole month based on a few model runs. We are only a few days into June, and I thought you said you didn't believe in longer range predictions?

People on this forum will have still read the forecast if it was titled "Summer 2011 forecast" because they were looking forward to seeing it anyway!

If you took the time to read my previous post, I havent 'dismissed' a whole month.

I said, current charts dont look favourable for the month of June.

As a "qualified Meteorologist", surely you of all people would know better than to dismiss a whole month based on a few model runs. We are only a few days into June, and I thought you said you didn't believe in longer range predictions?

People on this forum will have still read the forecast if it was titled "Summer 2011 forecast" because they were looking forward to seeing it anyway!

Oh, if you also read one of my previous posts on this topic, i said there is some merit to generalised forecasts inside of 30 days. Anything beyond that is usless.

[TEITS]

If you took the time to read my previous post, I havent 'dismissed' a whole month.

I said, current charts dont look favourable for the month of June.

Oh, if you also read one of my previous posts on this topic, i said there is some merit to generalised forecasts inside of 30 days. Anything beyond that is usless.

If you had an knowledge on meteorology then the correct comment should be "current charts don't look favourable for the first 1/3rd of June"

[weather12]

If you had an knowledge on meteorology then the correct comment should be "current charts don't look favourable for the first 1/3rd of June"

... in your opinion.

[TEITS]

... in your opinion.

+180 on the models takes us to the 10th June which is obviously a 1/3rd of the month. Virtually everyone knows on this forum that +180 is subject to changes and this is even more so beyond this timeframe.

If you want us to believe that your a meteorologist with 12yrs experience then im afraid you're not doing yourself any favours with your replies!