Express Headline 21/05 - Netweather In The Paper

[weather12]

Getting back to my point, the forecast cannot be verified or called a hit or miss because it hasn't happened yet. OED: we have to wait until after the forecast period to give our appraisal.

Was there this much argument in Spring 1976, just before it was a hot Summer?

Well i suspect TWO/PWS/Netweather werent around then to give out such glossy headlines!

Time will tell and i'll be there at the end of August to shoot it down once again, like the failed forecasts of previous years.

[Coast]

Time will tell and i'll be there at the end of August to shoot it down once again

We will see then......

[Summer Sun]

Weather12 as you are so good at forecast why don't you issue one your self? You do know that putting out forecasts 2-3 months in advance is extremely difficult to get every part 100% bang on, in some people's mind's summer don't stat till June 21st where as the MO and BBC start on June 1st. There is ample time for warm weather to establish over the UK let's get any unsettled weather out the way now and see where we are this time in July, just have some patience

Edited June 2, 2011 by Gavin D

[weather12]

Weather12 as you are so good at forecast why don't you issue one your self? You do know that putting out forecasts 2-3 months in advance is extremely difficult to get every part 100% bang on, in some people's mind's summer don't stat till June 21st where as the MO and BBC start on June 1st. There is ample time for warm weather to establish over the UK let's get any unsettled weather out the way now and see where we are this time in July, just have some patience

Oh absolutely. Im forecasting for a european city this week and it's giving me grief even 24 hours in advance!

I will not be issuing my own long range forecast im afraid, I just dont believe in them.

[chionomaniac]

I think it is fair enough for someone to state that they do not believe in longer range forecasting - it is after all notoriously difficult to get right. However I do believe that longer range forecasts should be attempted and do believe that certain trends can be spotted well in advance. It is the identifying of these trends and being able to produce a well thought out and constructed forecast from these, that difficulties may arise, but Stewart from netweather, I feel is better than most at this. In fact I believe that identifying the major phases in the global wind oscillation and connecting these to previously recorded seasonal anologues is the way forward when undertaking seasonal analysis.

It wasn't too long ago, and forgive me John Holmes for suggesting that you may remember, that three day forecasts could be considered long range but now look at the accuracy rate for these now.

I think that to suggest that netweather is using Stewart's forecast to maximise commercial opportunity is somewhat disingenious. It also shows a lacking in knowledge of netweather's previous forecasts and how forum members respect GP's analysis and predictions and would very rarely bet against him.

I for one will always continue to try and predict what will occur outside of what we would consider the reliable timeframe and do consider that there is the opportunity for advances to be made in this field.

c

[johnholmes]

I think it is fair enough for someone to state that they do not believe in longer range forecasting - it is after all notoriously difficult to get right. However I do believe that longer range forecasts should be attempted and do believe that certain trends can be spotted well in advance. It is the identifying of these trends and being able to produce a well thought out and constructed forecast from these, that difficulties may arise, but Stewart from netweather, I feel is better than most at this. In fact I believe that identifying the major phases in the global wind oscillation and connecting these to previously recorded seasonal anologues is the way forward when undertaking seasonal analysis.

It wasn't too long ago, and forgive me John Holmes for suggesting that you may remember, that three day forecasts could be considered long range but now look at the accuracy rate for these now.

I think that to suggest that netweather is using Stewart's forecast to maximise commercial opportunity is somewhat disingenious. It also shows a lacking in knowledge of netweather's previous forecasts and how forum members respect GP's analysis and predictions and would very rarely bet against him.

I for one will always continue to try and predict what will occur outside of what we would consider the reliable timeframe and do consider that there is the opportunity for advances to be made in this field.

c

totally agree with you ch, including that about 3 day forecasts. There are all manner of verification statistics, both Met O and other organisations that show just how much they have improved. prior to my retirement then 3-5 days was the furthest out we would go, even internally there was little if anything available to suggest any idea let along forecast beyond 5 days. 1995 that was and computers had been around since the mid 70's for numerical forecasting.

hi 12 how about you come clean about just what your job is and who you work for or if its yourself?

Its a polite question so don't feel shy!

[weather12]

totally agree with you ch, including that about 3 day forecasts. There are all manner of verification statistics, both Met O and other organisations that show just how much they have improved. prior to my retirement then 3-5 days was the furthest out we would go, even internally there was little if anything available to suggest any idea let along forecast beyond 5 days. 1995 that was and computers had been around since the mid 70's for numerical forecasting.

hi 12 how about you come clean about just what your job is and who you work for or if its yourself?

Its a polite question so don't feel shy!

I am a meteorologist with 12 years experience in the field.

[Nick L]

I am a meteorologist with 12 years experience in the field.

If that's the case, why start this topic...

[weather12]

If that's the case, why start this topic...

http://forum.netweat...63#entry2081163

Undercover work!

I dont want people knowing my true identity. I'm like the stig of the weather world ;-)

[Coast]

I'm like the stig of the weather world ;-)

What, easily replaced when you want to sell a book?

[weather12]

What, easily replaced when you want to sell a book?

Nah, i wont be selling any books just yet.

[IanM]

Nah, i wont be selling any books just yet.

That's good, still in the 'silently proving your skills' stage then?

[johnholmes]

I am a meteorologist with 12 years experience in the field.

welcome to the forecasting fraternity

[weather12]

That's good, still in the 'silently proving your skills' stage then?

I dont have to prove my skills to anyone mate.

I might remind you this thread is about netweather in the paper & long range forecasting.

welcome to the forecasting fraternity

Thank you.

[johnholmes]

so w12, why as a forecaster are you so against lrf work? To me its a new field since I retired as none of the terms in use on here and other web sites do I recall when working in UK Met.

I find it fascinating and a challenge, I also equally believe it will improve the same as the more traditional type of weather forecasting has improved. Again that will also improve but only very very slowly due to a large number of problems which seem very difficult to overcome-background 'noise' on models to name but one. The current way forward seems to be the use of ensembles to try and allow a forecaster to indicate to a customer the likely range of a particular element they are interested in, be that wind speed, temperature precipitation or whatever. That has a finite limit though and has probably not got that far to improve.

Where did you do your training for the interesting job you have?

[weather12]

so w12, why as a forecaster are you so against lrf work? To me its a new field since I retired as none of the terms in use on here and other web sites do I recall when working in UK Met.

I find it fascinating and a challenge, I also equally believe it will improve the same as the more traditional type of weather forecasting has improved. Again that will also improve but only very very slowly due to a large number of problems which seem very difficult to overcome-background 'noise' on models to name but one. The current way forward seems to be the use of ensembles to try and allow a forecaster to indicate to a customer the likely range of a particular element they are interested in, be that wind speed, temperature precipitation or whatever. That has a finite limit though and has probably not got that far to improve.

Where did you do your training for the interesting job you have?

I dont believe it's possible, certainly not in our lifetime anyway!

I think behind the scenes research into lrf is fair enough, but I disagree with it all being in public. It's very misleading and there's absolutely no proof it works.

The biggest organisations cant even forecast a few days in advance, let alone out to 10-20 days... out to 60-70-80-90 days... not a chance.

I studied for my GCSE's and got my A-Levels at the best sixth form college in the country. I studied natural sciences for 4 years and certified with BSc (Honours).

[IanM]

I dont have to prove my skills to anyone mate.

I might remind you this thread is about netweather in the paper & long range forecasting.

you missed the 'silently' part....mate

[The PIT]

Problem with releasing to the public is that media distorts it and the original release never gets read by Joe six pack. So when someone comes out with a one liner of Barbi summer everything goes out of the window.

Also people like to read into the forecast what they want too see. Happens all the time on here.

I still think they should be released but the above will always happen so the real forecast will always get lost in the noise.

[weather12]

Problem with releasing to the public is that media distorts it and the original release never gets read by Joe six pack. So when someone comes out with a one liner of Barbi summer everything goes out of the window.

Also people like to read into the forecast what they want too see. Happens all the time on here.

I still think they should be released but the above will always happen so the real forecast will always get lost in the noise.

Hence why they should be kept simmering in the background until they're ready to be unleashed on the public.

[Summer Sun]

Weather forecasters have poured cold water on claims the nation is set to bake in June. A few days of relative sunshine led to headlines of "Flaming June" and sun cream warnings. But three different forecasters dampened suggestions the summer would be a classic leaving Britons bronzed. Helen Chivers, of the Met Office, said on Thursday: "We are not seeing the hot spell lasting terribly long. For pretty much all the UK we have currently got a couple of days of predominantly dry weather. "Temperatures today should be reaching the mid 20s; pretty much everywhere will be the low to mid 20s. The highest temperatures today will be in eastern parts of Scotland, Aberdeenshire should see temperatures up to 26c. We can expect 25c in Newcastle, Nottingham and in London as well."

Accurate long forecasts are not possible But the forecaster rejected the idea that tennis players would struggle under the sun at Wimbledon and rock stars would dehydrate at Glastonbury. Forecasting between June 16 and 30 - taking in both events, she said: "UK sunshine amounts are slightly above average and temperatures around the UK look to be normal so that's why we are concerned about some of the headlines coming out.

"The fine weather we are having at the moment won't last that long. Early next week north-westerly winds are likely to bring outbreaks of rain as well so make the best of the sunshine across the next few days. "Billy Payne, of Meteogroup, the Press Association's weather centre, said: "Next week is looking quite unsettled it doesn't look like it's going to be anything special. "The Weather Outlook said the summer's hottest temperature could be 33c (91f) in the south "but the general picture is for a mixed season, and one which will not be remembered as a classic".

So here we go again the Met Office completely denies any hot summer and Accurate long forecasts are not possible (Or should that be we the Met Office can never get them right). I just don't who I can believe Netweather is saying Hot and Dry shade of 1976, the Met Office don't seem to have a clue and The Weather Outlook say mixed season.

http://uk.news.yahoo...-175155162.html

[stewfox]

So here we go again the Met Office completely denies any hot summer and Accurate long forecasts are not possible (Or should that be we the Met Office can never get them right). I just don't who I can believe Netweather is saying Hot and Dry shade of 1976, the Met Office don't seem to have a clue and The Weather Outlook say mixed season.

http://uk.news.yahoo...-175155162.html

I can understand why the general public might be drawn to the hype but I find it harder on here. Talk of a summer like 1976 and the heatwave 'nailed' etc I found amusing.

I'm happy with my average 14.2c CET for june . Long range and accurate don't go together.

Obviously I'm aware 76 didn't get going till late June and maybe we will have a hot summer maybe a wet one, point is no one knows.

Edited June 2, 2011 by stewfox

[chionomaniac]

I am a meteorologist with 12 years experience in the field.

Personally, I think that if you are a meteorologist with 12 years experience then you should declare who you work for. (Just in case there is any competitive commercial interest in your posts.....though I am sure there is not!)

Otherwise I see no harm in releasing public lrf with explanations with information of how they are derived. Otherwise one could claim to have predicted a perfect seasonal forecast retrospectively ..... surely it is better to be open with your way of thinking?

c

PS one of the biggest criticisms that I have of previous met office lrf's was the fact that no reasoning was given to how they were derived. If the reasoning is sound but the forecast is out then fair enough - at least one can say that the forecast is based on sound reasoning.

Edited June 2, 2011 by chionomaniac

[Bristawl Si]

As i said a couple of weeks ago when the NW forecast was released i was hoping it would turn out to be wrong!

I don't like excessive heat in the UK because it quickly turns humid - sleepless nights and all that - but i like long hot sunny days when i'm in the Med or Canaries.

But i've been telling everyone we're going to have a hot, dry June & July because that's what the NW forecast predicts - so part of me wants it to be right, otherwise i will get earache from friends & family if it turns out a poor summer, but the other part hopes it's wrong! If you see what i mean!

[damianslaw]

As i said a couple of weeks ago when the NW forecast was released i was hoping it would turn out to be wrong!

I don't like excessive heat in the UK because it quickly turns humid - sleepless nights and all that - but i like long hot sunny days when i'm in the Med or Canaries.

But i've been telling everyone we're going to have a hot, dry June & July because that's what the NW forecast predicts - so part of me wants it to be right, otherwise i will get earache from friends & family if it turns out a poor summer, but the other part hopes it's wrong! If you see what i mean!

I generally avoid any media hype when it comes to the weather. The media is all about sensationalist headlines and this goes for any reports on the weather.

I think people have taken the net weather headline literally and in actual fact if you read what it says 'shades of 76' it doesn't say a repeat of 76, shades could simply infer a shorterned less extreme version of 76 or a summer with the same level of heat but in much shorter doses..

However, I agree the prospects of a flamin June do not look promising if we maintain strong heights over greenland - we have seen alot of northern blocking in recent summers and it has been the death knell for any sustained warm sunny dry weather...

[stewfox]

Getting back to the point... in my opinion long range forecasts are completely useless. Again, i'll refer you to the PWS 2 week heatwave that never happened, forecast from 7 days in advance... how much faith are we supposed to have in other 'commercial organisations' predicting months in advance... the answer, none!

Yes but there fun ! I like the term 'high probability' as if that had some meaning based on past performance

If we could see the last 40 seasonal forecasts (4 a year) from various sites it would be useful

Edited June 2, 2011 by stewfox