Chase 2011 - Day 24 Discussion

[Nick F]

Quite difficult to choose a chase target today, with quite a wide area of Nern Texas, much of Oklahoma, SE Kansas and NE through MO and AR likey to see severe storms develop later if cloud cover clears. However, my attention is drawn towards SW Oklahoma/N Texas Red River corridor for later today, as NAM suggests a dryline bulge pushing in from the W/SW by 00z which should increase shear and also here we have the deepest pool of moisture and thus highest CAPE ... so perhaps best chance IMO of supercells producing a tornado or two down here. Also large hail will be likely too.

SPC:

06z NAM Tds and CAPE for 00z Tues (18Z CDT):

06z NAM precip and 0-3km Helicity:

[nsrobins]

Yesterday (and an increasing number of other days I can mention) once again didn't go according to plan. I think the only thing that was a bit sparse in SC OK and N TX last night was a decent upper level velocity. It's almost as if the atmosphere was too rich for it's own good - tops >50000 are OK if you've got something to start the turn higher up once the updraft goes vertical. Of course does anyone really know what makes a tornado and what doesn't given almost identical parameters? I guess that's what we're really trying to pin down.

Anyway, let's try again and I agree the similar area looks good for this evening and indeed for the next two or three days in a repeating cycle of DL intrusion and retreat. I like Altus, OK for combination of CAPE, lack of CIN, etc. Moisture - no worries with 73dps and 90ts (phew) just east of the sharp DL. I've chosen SW OK because this is where I see the greatest bulk shear (surface to H5) of around 40kns, with a SSE surface flow and WNW at H5. Given what i said above this is where I would be heading, regardless of model ppn initiation which wasn't brilliant yesterday.

[icbinb]

Ardmore for me

[TornadoJo]

The charts tell me to spend the morning in Lawton, but I am sticking with my theory that ground moisture is affecting storm stability , so I'm unsure.

I think the north east may get a cap bust.

It's a toughie.

[IanM]

I'd relax in Norman ready to head north east later if need be. Avoiding any chance of staying in Oklahoma city, at all costs.....

[Paul Sherman]

Moderate Risk again today, was hoping the mornings convection would be further west across Northern Oklahoma which would have thrown off a nice Outflow Boundary just North of OKC, But it looks like the Outflow Boundary will probably be over NE Oklahoma and SW Missouri, so once again a Strong Tornado could occur in the Joplin arfea once again today And they dont need that.

So it will be the Dryline again for us again today in SW Oklahoma and Western Oklahoma, the hotel is packed with chasers and temps at 9am are 78f with Dp's already in the 60's.

Will refine a better chase target in the next few hours

Paul S

[TornadoJo]

Ok. I hope the North East and Missouri have a cap bust!

[nsrobins]

Better chance of bagging a tube today Paul for the reasons described - better upper wind support.<BR><BR>Talking of upper winds, tommorow looks almost dangerous in C OK with a 70mph jet streak progged to coincide with maximum heating and cap dissolution. Now these cells could really start spinning quickly and an upgrade to MODERATE for tomorrow is justified.

Edited May 23, 2011 by nsrobins

[Paul Sherman]

Yep

They are concerned for Oklahoma City tomorrow, expecting a High Risk Upgrade for tomorrow tbh.

Just hoping today is not as mushy as yesterday when Dp's were in the Mid 70's in places and it was like Soup, how we managed to get that LP Picture is beyond me, only rotation we saw was when a little LP Went west of Ada just before sunset.

Heading West from OKC Shortly.

Paul S

[Arron]

Heading to El Reno for some lunch and to take a check on conditions etc

[dallas]

We can see ya moving but the message says offline,

ps......bottom right of screen all blurred........dodgy dirt tracks i suppose

[Arron]

Just checked and says online here, refresh browser maybe? Yeah it's smeared a bit with bug damage from last nights trek back to the hotel and we've ran out of washer juice. Going to sort it at El Reno

[dallas]

Just checked and says online here, refresh browser maybe? Yeah it's smeared a bit with bug damage from last nights trek back to the hotel and we've ran out of washer juice. Going to sort it at El Reno

Cheers for that, wont refresh yet as its running great, good luck today and stay safe

[dallas]

Latest from the SPC is a 10% tornado risk, from N/E OK, clipping S/E Kansas into S/W Missouri and a small area of N/E Arkansas

[dallas]

Cheers for the screen clean guy's I can get a clear view of the upcoming action,

SPC have changed the position of the tornado risk area,

Edited May 23, 2011 by dallas

[Arron]

Lunch time now, be back on the road in a bit

[Arron]

Okay we got initiation around 50 miles to our south west, just finishing lunch and will make a move west.

[nsrobins]

Could be quite close with Altus. Tower building between Magnum and Sayre on vis.

Paul I'm getting a bad feeling about tommorow.

[dallas]

The feed is fantastic at the mo

[nsrobins]

If the cell can get up there it will eventually engage up to 35kn of 0-H5 bulk shear. Not huge I know but other parameters may well overcome this. Oh, and max LIs are -15 over Altus ATM. Wonga!

[Arron]

On the move west towards clinton now to see what the cells look like that have fired on the dryline

[dallas]

Tornado watch for the folowing OK counties,

. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BECKHAM BLAINE

CADDO CANADIAN COMANCHE

COTTON CUSTER DEWEY

GARFIELD GRADY GRANT

GREER HARMON JACKSON

JEFFERSON KAY KINGFISHER

KIOWA LOGAN MAJOR

NOBLE STEPHENS TILLMAN

WAonionsA WOODS

Unfortunatly Joplin is within a Tornado watch area

Edited May 23, 2011 by dallas

[Arron]

Stopped to take some timelapse on these towers going up just north of Clinton

[NL]

WWUS40 KWNS 231934 WWP5 TORNADO WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WT 0345 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0234 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2011 WT 0345 PROBABILITY TABLE

: PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 60%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 50%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%

PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%

PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 90%

PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 90%

&& ATTRIBUTE TABLE: MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 3.0

MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60

MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 600

MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27020

PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

[Arron]

Just seen the most amazing well defined sheer funnel linking two up draughts

Dropping south of Clinton now