Glastonbury 2011 (Gfs 6Th-11Th June)

[J10]

This is the first of the daily updates as we start to ramp up in readiness for Glastonbury, these will also include UKMO and ECM as we come into the time range.

GFS 06Hz Charts

The Monday before the festival starts with Low Pressure to the North West of the Uk, which slowly moves South East over the next few days, with a cool NW flow following on behind. Mostly dry to start on Monday, but rain edging in later on Monday night, Tuesday looks rather wet, with Wednesday giving a mix of sunshine and showers. 850Hpa around 6c to start, but falling back to 2 to 3c for Wednesday. Likely temps 14-17c. *

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110606/12/336/h850t850eu.png- These charts are available for 7 days and they are fixed, as an example, this is combined 850HPa and Pressure charts for Monday. A lot more detail is available by changing the dates and charts type.

GFS 12Hz Charts

High Pressure ridging up (from the South West) on the Monday, building on Tuesday, but slightly weakening by Wednesday, pressure still above 1020mb though. Dry on the Monday and Tuesday, With lower pressure on the continent, some rain might fringe Glastonbury from the south during the afternoon. 850Hpa around 3c to start on Monday, rising sharply and hitting 11c by Wednesday, with the wind direction hinting of it rising further into Thursday. Likely Temps 18c on the Monday, rising to 20c by Wednesday. *

CFS

High Pressure over Northern UK, lower pressure further south, so always rather unsettled with the chance of some rain, which may be heavy, however with easterly winds from the continent, temps would be high teens or low 20s.

Summary

The 06Hz would give slightly unsettled weather, but the 12Hz looks pretty good for Glastonbury.

* For these forecasts, I will give the temps as suggested by GFS, and not inflate to account for GFS generally underdoing inland temps in Summer.

[danbailey80]

You know Glasto is really near when JACKONE does his daily forecasts.....

Any reason why we can't keep all chat and predictions to one forum..?

Don't mind myself, but might make it easier for all your fans to track down quicker...!

Also , when will you give your 0-5 grades...? They do make it that little bit more exciting..

Thanks again for all your generous work....

[Summer Sun]

Yes one place is much better, could you keep them all here?

Edited June 6, 2011 by Gavin D

[J10]

You know Glasto is really near when JACKONE does his daily forecasts.....

Any reason why we can't keep all chat and predictions to one forum..?

Don't mind myself, but might make it easier for all your fans to track down quicker...!

Also , when will you give your 0-5 grades...? They do make it that little bit more exciting..

Thanks again for all your generous work....

The reason I do separate threads is that the new forecasts don't get lost in the old thread which does to happen.

In the winter I do the Skiing forecasts, and then I merge the (weekly) forecasts, back in with the main thread. I could do that here (after 4-5 days or so). In any case, I could have the daily forecast threads, simply to show the forecasts, but have all discussion back in the main thread.

As for the grades, it suggest a degree of confidence in the forecast, which this far out, it is difficult to have, particularly as currently only 1 day of the forecast has been done and that is a t T+384. However I will do the grades on Wednesday and then update them daily.

[danbailey80]

The reason I do separate threads is that the new forecasts don't get lost in the old thread which does to happen.

In the winter I do the Skiing forecasts, and then I merge the (weekly) forecasts, back in with the main thread. I could do that here (after 4-5 days or so). In any case, I could have the daily forecast threads, simply to show the forecasts, but have all discussion back in the main thread.

As for the grades, it suggest a degree of confidence in the forecast, which this far out, it is difficult to have, particularly as currently only 1 day of the forecast has been done and that is a t T+384. However I will do the grades on Wednesday and then update them daily.

Cheers Thanks again

[J10]

Short Term (Late Edit)

I thought I'd put a bit in here about the occurrences before we get into FI, this doesn't effect Glastonbury, but it might give the building blocks before we get there. As soon as Next Tuesday (14th) GFS attempts to ridge High pressure up from the South. On both the 06 and 12Hz run, Pressure over southern parts of the UK, remains high until at least the Monday 21st.

Contrastly the ECM has the feature next Tuesday as more of a transient ridge with low pressure then taking control again from the west from the Wednesday / Thursday. All subsequent daily forecasts will include short term analysis on each run evaluated.

06Hz

Monday the 21st June has the Azores High slightly displaced northwards, with low pressure (1000mb) centred to the south of Iceland, with a NW flow over the UK. Over subsequent days, this low pressure moves NE bringing some rain over the UK in the process, and by Thursday another low pressure is waiting in the wings, centred again to the south of Iceland. The majority of the rain is reserved for northern parts of the UK, with only some showers likely for Glastonbury. A rather showery cool flow, with 850HPA temps falling from 9c on Monday to 4c on Wednesday, so temps around 15-17c for Wednesday and Thursday. *

(Charts show Tuesday 21st-Thur 23rd inclusive)

12Hz

Monday the 21st has Low Pressure over Iceland, a ridge of High Pressure over Southern UK, but a deepening low pressure cell in the Mid Atlantic to the NW of the Azores. By the Wednesday, the low pressure is bang on top of the UK giving rain and unsettled conditions, by the Thursday though, it has moved into Scandinavia, with Higher pressure again starting to ridge in from the south West.

Rather showery for the most part, but with some heavy rain moving NE Wednesday morning, although the heaviest of the rain should miss Glastonbury to the north. 850HPa Temps 2-4c for the most part, but rising to 7 or 8c, when the low pressure pushes in on the Wednesday, so temps around 15-17c for Wednesday and Thursday. *

CFS

High Pressure to start, but low pressure starts to edge in for the Thursday, however High pressure never really retreats in the south, with most of the rain over norther parts, and High pressure completely assets itself for the weekend. Temps mid teens to start, but into the low 20s over the weekend. *

Summary

Both GFS runs featured today, go for rather unsettled conditions, quite cool, with some patchy rain, but not really washout conditions. Contrastly today's CFS looks very promising for the festival.

Based on the runs so far, a cool unsettled festival is the most likely, but not a complete washout. But we are still at T+362 to start of the festival, plenty of time for the models to change.

* For these forecasts, I will give the temps as suggested by GFS, and not inflate to account for GFS generally underdoing inland temps in Summer.

[J10]

06Hz

Rather unsettled for the start of next week (13th), with only slight ridging of High Pressure from the south. From the Friday (17th) before the festival, there is flabby low pressure over the UK, and this remains over the UK until the Friday of the festival(24th), however slight signs of High pressure finally ridging up from the south.

850HPA Temps in the region 5-7c, with temps of 15-18c. rather wet to start the festival, with showers or periods of rain for the Wednesday and Thursday, more showery on the Friday. *

12Hz

High Pressure starts to ridge from the south from Monday Next Week (13th), and despite looking quite promising Low pressure then starts to edge back in for the middle part of next week. By Monday (20th), there is low pressure over the UK, with the Azores High Pressure ridging up to the west of the UK. By Wednesday the low pressure has moved away to the north, with Westerly winds over the UK but with High Pressure starting to ridge up from the south, and by Friday High Pressure does cover southern parts of the UK. Some showery rain for Glastonbury on the Wednesday and Thursday of the festival, but drier on the Friday, while there is rain waiting in the wings, this should be reserved for Northern pars of the UK to start the weekend. 850Hpa temps between 2 or 3c, so very cool with temps of 14 or 15c, but signs of warming up for the weekend. *

Summary

Mixed Signs today from the models, with 06HZ going for a wet start to the festival, and 12Hz keeping it mostly dry with a few showers, neither forecast have temps that much to write home about.

I promised to start doing a scale between washout and dustbowl, I know that the scale was washout to heatwave in previous years, but I think this new scale is the main criteria. If you want it changed back I can do so very easily.

On this scale of 0=dustbowl and 10=washout I would so for a 6, there has been consistent signs that the festival is likely to see some rain, probably falling short of a washout, and there is still time for things to change. This is based on a general feeling of the charts to date rather than todays models. I also think that temps are likely to be cool for the time of year as well, probably around the mid (possibly to high) teens.

* For these forecasts, I will give the temps as suggested by GFS, and not inflate to account for GFS generally underdoing inland temps in Summer.

[duggyfresh]

Hmmm.....would be happier with a 3 or 4.

[danbailey80]

definitely a better idea to base the scale on precipitation as opposed to temperature. No one is that bothered by temps, (unless extreme), it's the rain that makes a difference..

thanks again cheers

[J10]

06Hz

High Pressure ridging up from the south/South West for a time around Monday (13th), however this is shunted away to the east by around Wednesday next week, with low pressure edging in. This Low Pressure remains in place until the Tuesday (21st), when High Pressure ridges in from the South West. This High pressure then remains in places until the end of the run to Saturday (25th).

For the Wednesday of the festival, there is a ridge of High pressure over Southern UK, and this slowly builds over the UK over the following days, with winds generally from the South West for Glastonbury. 850Hpa Temps of 5c on the Wednesday, slowly rising to 10 or 11c by Saturday. Temps around 16-17c rising to 20-21c by Saturday. *

12Hz

High Pressure ridging up from the south/South West for a time around Monday (13th), however this is shunted away to the east by around Wednesday next week, with low pressure edging in. This Low Pressure remains in place until the end of the run right through to the Saturday of the festival (25th).

For the Wednesday of the festival, A North Westerly wind with Showers, before more general low pressure gives heavy rain for the Thursday, further heavy shower on the Friday, but drier on the Saturday with slightly higher pressure from the South West. 850Hpa Temps of 3c on the Wednesday, rising to 9c on the Thursday, and then falling back to around 6c by the weekend. Temps around 13-15c. *

Ensembles

For the 06Hz run, the average 850Hpa is around 5c, with pressure of 1015mb, with some rain on the ensembles, but not masses of it, so the operational run is a slight warm and High Pressure outlier.

For the 12Hz run, the average 850Hpa is around 6c, with pressure of 1015mb, with quite a few wet run on the ensembles, the operational run is a slight cold outlier with a low pressure outlier.

So no real pattern with the ensembles as of yet.

Summary

On this scale of 0=dustbowl and 10=washout I would so for a 6, as overall there remains a higher possibility of a damp or wet festival. However, solely based on today's runs, it would be more neutral at a 5.

[J10]

06Hz

A transient ridge of High Pressure edging up from the South West next Tuesday for southern parts of the UK, but his soon edged out of the way as low pressure starts to nudge back in from the west by Next Wednesday. However it then remains unsettled from various directions and degrees until the end of the run. Rather messy synoptics, but some rain for a time Wednesday, with Thursday looking mostly dry, rain then pushing in from the South East later Friday, with further patchy rain over the weekend. 850Hpa around 6-8c, but falling back to 4-5c over the weekend, with northerly winds, Temps around 14-17c. *

12Hz

A transient ridge of High Pressure edging up from the South West next Monday for southern parts of the UK, but his soon edged out of the way as low pressure starts to nudge back in from the west by Next Wednesday. This lasts through the weekend and it remains unsettled until the Monday before the festival (20th). However signs of High pressure ridging up from the South/South west thereafter, this lasting until the weekend. However the ridge slowly being flattened with Low Pressure trying to push back in from the SW by the Sunday. Mostly dry to start the festival, some weak fronts trying to edge in but any significant rain for northern parts of the UK. At this stage it does look as it it may turn a bit wetter on the Sunday. 850Hpa around 6-7c, but up to 10c for a time on Sunday, Temps around 16-19c. *

Ensembles

Looking at the 06Hz ensembles, 850HPa temps are around 5c, most of the ensembles go for some rainfall over the festival period, and average pressure remains drops from around 1017- to 1012mb, so the operational run is slightly worse then the ensembles.

Summary

The general pattern seems for largely unsettled weather from around mid next week until around a few days before the festival. There are some signs of pressure rising for the start of the festival, but given the current patterns this probably looks the outside bet at the moment.

Based on the overall pattern and on today's charts, and scale scale of 0=dustbowl and 10=washout I would so for a 6, as overall there remains a higher possibility of a damp or wet festival. With perhaps a damp unsettled festival, the likely outcome at the moment.

[J10]

06Hz

A transient ridge pushes up from the South west late Monday, early Tuesday (13th/14th), but low pressure soon edges back in from the west by the Wednesday. Low Pressure then remains until the start of the Glastonbury festival, despite High pressure trying to push into the South East around Tuesday (21st). The Low Pressure remains in control throughout the festival, with heavy rain expected Early Wednesday, Late Thursday and Early Saturday, and showers on Friday and Sunday, so a washout to be honest. 850Hpa generally around 7-8, but up to 11c for a time late Friday, Max Temps 17-20c Wed, 14-15c Thurs but around 15-17c on other days. *

12Hz

A transient ridge pushes up from the South west late Monday, early Tuesday (13th/14th), but low pressure soon edges back in from the west by the Wednesday. Low Pressure then remains until the day before the festival. By the Wednesday (22nd), pressure builds to the south of the UK with a broad west to South Westerly flow. However this is short lived as low pressure then takes control to the end of the run. With Westerly winds most days will see some heavy showers, with the chance of more general rain on Thursday and later on Sunday. 850Hpa generally around 2-3c but rising briefly to 11c on Thursday, warm a warm sector ahead of the rain. Temps around 14-15c generally but closer to 17-18c on Sunday. *.

Ensembles

850Hpa around 6-7c, Pressure around 1015mb, with many of the ensembles looking quite wet. So the operational run looking a bit warmer and wetter then the ensembles, but a good general agreement on largely unsettled weather.

850Hpa around 6-7c, Pressure around 1018mb, with most of the ensembles showing some rain but generally not that wet. So the operational run quite a bit more unsettled than the ensembles.

Summary

Again today's ensembles go for quite an unsettled period after the transient ridge early next week, but there still remains the chance of things becoming slightly more settled just before the Glastonbury festival. However with the largely unsettled theme, on a scale of 0=dustbowl, and 10= washout, this remains a 6.

[J10]

Today's forecast has now been completed.