Glastonbury (Gfs Fully Update 13Th June)

[J10]

06Hz

Rather unsettled from around Wednesday this week, but rather showery as opposed to full on wet. This largely unsettled theme continues until the start of the festival, with low pressure to the NE of the UK bringing some moderate rain to most parts on Wednesday. However a ridge of High pressure from the South West quickly settles things down for the Thursday and Friday. While low pressure system push in northern areas, Higher Pressure to the south should keep it drier with winds moving round to the SE by the Sunday, indeed apart from a few showers on the Thursday it should then stay dry for the rest of the festival. 850HPa temps cool to start around 2-3c for the Wednesday and Thursday, but rising sharply to 10c by Saturday and 13c by Sunday. Temps around 15c Wednesday to Friday, 19c on Saturday, 22c on Sunday. *

12Hz

Rather unsettled from around Wednesday this week, with periods s heavy rainfall from around Friday to the start of the festival, probably a bit wetter than the 06Hz run. Wednesday sees low pressure moving across the UK, giving moderate rain as it does so. By Thursday the low pressure is the NE of the UK, giving further showery rain. High pressure ridges up from the South West by the Friday, with only patchy rain and this dying out as the day progresses. Over the weekend, there is low pressure over Northern parts of the UK, with higher pressure over southern parts, meaning it should stay mostly dry over the weekend for Glastonbury. 850Hpa temps around 3-4 to start but rising slowly to around 8-9c over the weekend. Temps around 14-15c, but rising to 18-19 by the weekend. *

Ensembles

Unfortunately only the 12Hz are fully available, most ensembles go for some rain on the Wednesday, but not that much rain after that. The average pressure is around 1018mb rising to around 1020mb for the Friday and only slowly slipping back over the weekend. Quite a lot of ensembles go for pressure over 1020mmb, and tho start with the operational run is a major low pressure outlier. the 850 temps start off quite low at around 5c, but slowly rise to around 7-8c by the Sunday.

I did see the 06Hz ensemble, and it did confirm that the 850Hpa were a big warm outlier at the end of the run. However pressure was around 1018mb, and most runs were mostly dry after the Wednesday.

ECM

The 06Hz run has low presume over the UK for the Wednesday, this slowly moves away to the NE by the Thursday leaving a showery NW flow and quite cool with 850Hpa around 2-3c, unfortunately no real sign of a ridging High for the SW.

The 12Hz ECM is quite similar to the GFS 12Hz run unsettled to start the festival, with Low Pressure moving away to the NE by the Thursday, with signs of High Pressure rising from the SW after this. 850Hpa around 5c.

Summary

It is looking rather unsettled for the UK in the run up to Glastonbury this year and possibly including the Wednesday, however there are definite signs of improvements with High pressure starting to ridge up from the SW keeping Glastonbury mostly dry over the weekend.

On today runs, It is close between a 4 or 5, overall I will go for 5.5 as it is looking mostly dry after the Wednesday, but if it is wet in the build up to the festival, and on the Wednesday, will this mean wet and muddy conditions, even if it remains dry thereafter.

[dancing daisy]

Jackone, What are the chances of this high pressure moving up sooner rather than later? Or is it 'How long is a peice of string?'

I am really pleased to see a dry weekend on the cards, but of course, in an ideal world the ground will get a few days to dry up before 180,000 trample over it.

Thank you so much for your forecasts again this year.

[duggyfresh]

JACKONE, would you say that your forecasts, apart from this one giving the rain on Thurs rather than Weds, pretty much match up with this? -

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/forregdaily.aspx?postcode=Glastonbury&selected=0

[J10]

JACKONE, would you say that your forecasts, apart from this one giving the rain on Thurs rather than Weds, pretty much match up with this? -

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twoforecasts/forregdaily.aspx?postcode=Glastonbury&selected=0

It seems quite close, however as they are possibly based on the same output that is not that surprising.