Glastonbury Update (16Th June)

[J10]

06Hz GFS

Tomorrow looks quite wet, and this weekend looks rather showery, some showers moderate on Saturday, less so on Sunday. Monday sees a low pressure cell of 1000mb centered to the west of Ireland, this should feed in South Westerly winds, with the chance of some moderate rain depending on the progress of a small shortwave over southern areas, otherwise mostly dry. Tuesday sees this only slowly moving eastwards, centered over, with scattered showers. Wednesday sees the low pressure system centered over Northern Scotland, with some moderate showers at times for most areas. Thursday sees the low pressure move into Scandinavia, with a NW flow behind, with some showers, mostly light.

Friday sees low pressure ridging and then starting to build over Southern area, looking dry for Glastonbury. Saturday sees High Pressure over Southern UK (1028mb), the High pressure moving slightly east on Sunday, feeding in SE winds, looking like a completely dry weekend for Glastonbury. 850Hpa around 3-4 to start, but rising to 9c by Saturday and 13c by Sunday, Temps between 14-17c Monday to Friday, up to 22c by Sunday.

12Hz GFS

Tomorrow looks quite wet, and this weekend looks rather showery, heavy on Saturday, less so on Sunday. Monday sees a low pressure cell of 1004mb centered off Ireland, this should feed in South Westerly winds, and moderate showers at times. Tuesday sees this only slowly moving eastwards, centered off NW England, with scattered showers, mostly light. The Low Pressure system moves into Scandinavia quite quickly on Wednesday with a NW flow, giving mostly light showers for Southern UK. Low pressure over the UK on Thursday slightly intensifies, but SW areas should be mostly dry.

Friday sees High Pressure ridging up from the South West, but not as controlling as recent charts for Friday, but it should be mostly dry with only light showers. In a complete change to recent forecasts, Low Pressure in the Atlantic seeks to flatten the ridge, and rain is waiting in the wings for Sunday morning, Sunday looks wet and unsettled, the rain clearing later, but followed by heavy showers in the evening. 850Hpa temps struggling, 3-4c to start, around 1-2c by Friday, but rising slowly over the weekend. Temps around 15-17c.

Ensembles GFS

Very good agreement on a mostly dry Glastonbury festival, pressure average starting at 1010mb to start, rising to 1020mb by Friday and staying there over the weekend, the operational run is a bit of a high pressure outlier. 850 HPa around 3c to start, rising to 6c by the end of the run, so the op is a total outlier.

Most ensembles are mostly dry, but there is more rain then the 06Hz run, however the op run is probably the wettest run over the weekend. The pressure ensembles are very similar to the 06hz ruin, pressure average starting at 1010mb to start, rising to 1020mb by Friday and staying there over the weekend, the operational run is a total low pressure outlier. 850 HPa around 3c to start, rising to 6c by the end of the run, so the op run is in line the ensembles.

ECM 00Hz

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110616/00/ecm500.144.png

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110616/00/ecm500.168.png

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110616/00/ecm500.192.png

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110616/00/ecm500.216.png

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110616/00/ecm500.240.png

Monday sees a low pressure cell of 1000mb centered well to the West of Ireland, with showers SW winds ahead of it. The Low pressure still centered to the west of Ireland on Tuesday, so again a showery day over Southern areas with SW winds. The low pressure centered over Ireland on Wednesday, so a showery day or periods of rain likely. The low pressure moves east of the UK by Thursday, so a slack NW flow over the UK, so a day of further showers, probably mostly light over SW areas, with a ridge developing to the west of the UK.

Friday looks mostly dry with High Pressure ridging over Western parts of the UK, high pressure over southern parts of the on Saturday (1024mb), so mostly dry, the High pressure moves to the east on Sunday with a SE flow, possibly heralding a thundery breakdown, but Sunday itself should be mostly dry.

850Hpa temps day by day, 5c, 4c, 2c, 6c, 10c on Sunday.

ECM 12Hz

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110616/12/ecm500.144.png

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110616/12/ecm500.168.png

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110616/12/ecm500.192.png

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110616/12/ecm500.216.png

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110616/12/ecm500.240.png

Monday sees a low pressure cell of 1004mb centered to the South West of Ireland, this should slowly move eastwards by Tuesday, with it over Southern Ireland, feeding in SW winds and probably some moderate showers. Wednesday sees the low move to Eastern England, with NW winds following on behind, with further showers likely, probably turning drier as the day progresses. Thursday sees a slack NW flow over the UK, so a day of further showers, probably mostly light over SW areas, these is a promising looking ridge to the west of the UK.

Friday looks mostly dry with High Pressure ridging over SW parts of the UK, not massively dominating though. The ridge builds over the UK on Saturday, giving a dry day (pressure 1024mb over many areas.) Low Pressure tries to push in on Sunday, but with High pressure over southern areas, it should stay mostly dry. 850Hpa temps day by day, 5c, 3c, 1c, 5c, 8c on Sunday as milder SW winds push in.

this should feed in South Westerly winds, with the chance of some moderate rain depending on the progress of a small shortwave over southern areas, otherwise mostly dry. Tuesday sees this only slowly moving eastwards, centered over, with scattered showers. Wednesday sees the low pressure system centered over Northern Scotland, with some moderate showers at times for most areas. Thursday sees the low pressure move into Scandinavia, with a NW flow behind, with some showers, mostly light.

Friday sees low pressure ridging and then starting to build over Southern area, looking dry for Glastonbury. Saturday sees High Pressure over Southern UK (1028mb), the High pressure moving slightly east on Sunday, feeding in SE winds, looking like a completely dry weekend for Glastonbury. 850Hpa around 3-4 to start, but rising to 9c by Saturday and 13c by Sunday, Temps between 14-17c Monday to Friday, up to 22c by Sunday.

ECM Ensembles 12Hz

Reasonably in line with the op ECM run.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Summary

Huge difference today with the op runs of GFS, both are outlier from the ensemble pack, 06hz in terms of heat, and 12Hz in terms of unsettled weather and rain over the weekend. so what to believe. Both are extremes and are unlikely to pan out exactly. But a real challenge today to try to pin down a number, with so many conflicting reports. If I try a daily summary.

Wednesday looks wet at worst but probably showery to start, but probably drying up later.

Thursday looks showery, possibly heavy, but probably the SW looking to escape with light scattered showers.

Friday and Saturday look mostly settled and dry, with High pressure ridging in. (worst case scenario the odd shower mainly on Friday.

Sunday could be wet again from the west but the majority of models go against this.

So on the basis that there could be 3 or 4 dry days, I am going for a 5, and if it wasn't for the GFS 12Hz outlier run, it would be lower than 5.

[poromenos]

no, NO NOOOOOOOO!!!

:( :( :( :( :( :(

worst.pics.ever.

it's going to be around 6-7/10 (or i simply don't have any idea of what i see)

[Jezzer]

Wait til the ECM is analysed, think it'll be more positive!

[ICGenie]

First post here, thanks for that forecast JACKONE, has brightened my day a little!

[devonhammer]

I'd have put that worse than a 5 and I'm an optimist. I think I need to avoid being swayed by the latest run.

Still all to play for. Lets hope we get some good news in the morning.

[J10]

I'd have put that worse than a 5 and I'm an optimist. I think I need to avoid being swayed by the latest run.

Still all to play for. Lets hope we get some good news in the morning.

Look at it another way, GFS 06Hz, ensembles, ECM. rain or showers Wednesday, thereafter drying up with increasing amounts of dry weather , especially over the weekend.

GFS 12Hz looks much more unsettled over the weekend, indeed maybe not a dry day.

ECM has improved today, and that's the main reason for a slightly improved score, however a massively difficult job to "mark" today's models, and very easy to give a different for a multitude of reasons.