Glastonbury Update (17Th June)

[J10]

As we are now within a week of the festival, all forecast images will remain active for 7 days, so to save time I will just add the links to the images, rather than upload the images themselves if anyone has any problems accessing the images please let me know.

GFS 06Hz

Monday starts with a low pressure system to the the west of Ireland, with SW winds over the UK and some moderate showers or periods of rain. The low pressure rotates into Tuesday, and with less fronts and troughs over southern areas, it should be mostly dry here. The centre of the low pressure moves quickly eastwards on Wednesday, with west to North to North West over the UK, so rather unsettled with further showers. The slack low presume system over the UK may intensify slightly with the chance of a shortwave developing, but still looking mostly dry for southern areas.

A brief ridge of High Pressure should keep things settled on Friday, but Low pressure soon pushing in during the early hours of Saturday, and looking very wet generally over Southern areas of the UK and for Glastonbury especially. This pushes through on Saturday with Sunday looking drier with sunshine and showers. 850Hpa Temps around 4-6c generally , Temps around 17c to 18c, and it be breezy for a time over the weekend.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/06/126/h850t850eu.png (Wed Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/06/150/h850t850eu.png (Thu Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/06/174/h850t850eu.png (Fri Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/06/192/h850t850eu.png (Sat Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/06/216/h850t850eu.png (Sun Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/06/126/ukprec.png (Wed Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/06/150/ukprec.png (Thu Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/06/174/ukprec.png (Fri Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/06/192/ukprec.png (Sat Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/06/216/ukprec.png (Sun Rain)

GFS 12Hz

Monday starts with a low pressure system over the west coast of Ireland, with SW winds over the UK and some moderate showers. The low pressure deepens into Tuesday and pushes NNE over Scotland, so remaining unsettled with lighter showers over SW England. Wednesday sees the Low Pressure lose a bit of intensity, but with NW winds continuing, a this stage, mostly dry but the chance of some light rain over SW England into the afternoon.

Thursday sees pressure slowly rise from the west, but still with a NW wind and pressure quite low, as a result showers may well develop and the precipitation charts indicate that these may be a bit more widespread than on Wednesday. Friday sees a ridge of High pressure pushing up from the south (1024mb) and it should be mostly dry and settled over southern areas. Saturday sees low pressure trying to push in from the west, however higher pressure over southern areas should mean it stays dry here. Sunday sees a secondary push of the low pressure pushing some rain across all parts of the UK. 850Hpa temps around 2-4c to start, but closer to 7-9c over the weekend. Temps around 14-15c to start, closer to 17-18c over the weekend.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/12/120/h850t850eu.png (Wed Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/12/144/h850t850eu.png (Thu Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/12/168/h850t850eu.png (Fri Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/12/192/h850t850eu.png (Sat Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/12/216/h850t850eu.png (Sun Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/12/120/ukprec.png (Wed Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/12/144/ukprec.png (Thu Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/12/168/ukprec.png (Fri Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/12/192/ukprec.png (Sat Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110617/12/216/ukprec.png (Sun Rain)

ECM 00Hz

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110617/00/ecmt850.120.png (Wed)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110617/00/ecmt850.144.png (Thu)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110617/00/ecmt850.168.png (Fri)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110617/00/ecmt850.192.png (Sat)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110617/00/ecmt850.216.png (sun)

Monday starts with a low pressure system to the South West coast of Ireland, this moves to southern Ireland by Tuesday. Wednesday sees it centered over Scotland, before it moves away to Scandinavia by Thursday with NW winds following it behind. So rather unsettled with some showers for the first few days of the festival.

Friday sees a ridge of High Pressure building over the UK, this continues and Saturday, High Pressure is still on the scene on Sunday, but slightly further to the east but still keeping low Pressure at bay.

ECM 12HZ

It settles down on Friday and more especially over the the weekend with a ridge of High pressure over the UK on Saturday, and to the east of the UK on Sunday but keeping it mostly dry. A slack NW flow over the UK on Thursday. So rather unsettled with some showers for the first few days of the festival. (As per the 00Hz run)

A ridge of High Pressure pushes up from the South on Friday, this pushes East, but the High Pressure should be still dominant enough to keep things dry on Saturday. Low Pressure start to edge in from the west on Sunday, 850Hpa temps 3-4c generally but closer to 10-11c on Sunday.

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110617/12/ecmt850.120.png (Wed)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110617/12/ecmt850.144.png (Thu)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110617/12/ecmt850.168.png (Fri)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110617/12/ecmt850.192.png (Sat)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110617/12/ecmt850.216.png (sun)

Ensembles

Summary

The good news is Friday looks dry, Saturday looks dry after the GFS backed down from its earlier rain, however there may be showery rain on Wednesday and Thursday, which may not amount to that much, but there are signs it may be wet on Sunday with rain pushing in from the west, as such a is called for.

[J10]

My score is a 6 based on the models tonight.

[duggyfresh]

Is that 6 just based on Sundays wet weather? I'm not fussed if it's muddy on the last day.

[J10]

Is that 6 just based on Sundays wet weather? I'm not fussed if it's muddy on the last day.

If it was dry on the Sunday, then a 4 or 5 might have been the score. Of Course Wednesday and Thursday are not looking completely dry, so having a festival with 3 damp or wet days, can never be closer to a 0 than a 10.

[duggyfresh]

If it was dry on the Sunday, then a 4 or 5 might have been the score. Of Course Wednesday and Thursday are not looking completely dry, so having a festival with 3 damp or wet days, can never be closer to a 0 than a 10.

Thanks. You're doing a great job! Appreciate it.

[Paul Lewis]

If it was dry on the Sunday, then a 4 or 5 might have been the score. Of Course Wednesday and Thursday are not looking completely dry, so having a festival with 3 damp or wet days, can never be closer to a 0 than a 10.

Thanks JACKONE you're a star!

[danbailey80]

If it was dry on the Sunday, then a 4 or 5 might have been the score. Of Course Wednesday and Thursday are not looking completely dry, so having a festival with 3 damp or wet days, can never be closer to a 0 than a 10.

I settle for that....It' not the end of the world if the last day is a bit muddy....

The closer we get, the more it looks like a repeat of 2008/2009...which is absolutely fine...cool, with the odd shower..showers are nothing...and might not even get those..

maybe little mud for a day thurs, then dried up for fri and sat... then maybe some more sunday...i'll settle for that.

Thank you as always, JACKONE

P.S JACKONE - you ever feel like trying out Glasto one year?

Edited June 17, 2011 by danbailey80

[duggyfresh]

I settle for that....It' not the end of the world if the last day is a bit muddy....

The closer we get, the more it looks like a repeat of 2008/2009...which is absolutely fine...cool, with the odd shower..showers are nothing...and might not even get those..

maybe little mud for a day thurs, then dried up for fri and sat... then maybe some more sunday...i'll settle for that.

Thank you as always, JACKONE

P.S JACKONE - you ever feel like trying out Glasto one year?

Yep. Good call!

[William of Walworth]

The last Sunday is the furthest away from now, with most scope for details to alter -- hopefully in a drier direction.

My main concern, now, is less the main part of the festival -- hopes must tentatively at least be rising now for a predominantly dry Friday and Saturday, with -- we hope -- not too many showers on Thursday either.The real concern still is the buildup period, from now until Tuesday/Wednesday, most of which period still looks to be pretty unsettled. Albeit more showery than heavy continouous rainy a la today. But also, cool enough (then) for any sunshine not to make much impact in drying the ground much.

But current reports and pix from the site (see efestivals) indicate a lot of damp sogginess already, with some mud in places. Main aim over the buildup period would be is to avoid another several-hours-long heavy downpour like today's or (even worse) like last Sunday's. Although I;ve read reports form Pilton and Glastonbury and Shepton that today's rain was not as stupidly heavy as in West Wales and Cornwall!

As crew, we arrive on site on Sunday. Will be offline from here after tonight opr at latest, after tomorow (Sat) morning ...

THANKS to JACK for all his hard work and forecasts and help. Always appreciated, every year..

Edited June 17, 2011 by William of Walworth

[J10]

The last Sunday is the furthest away from now, with most scope for details to alter -- hopefully in a drier direction.

My main concern, now, is less the main part of the festival -- hopes must tentatively at least be rising now for a predominantly dry Friday and Saturday, with -- we hope -- not too many showers on Thursday either.The real concern still is the buildup period, from now until Tuesday/Wednesday, most of which period still looks to be pretty unsettled. Albeit more showery than heavy continouous rainy a la today. But also, cool enough (then) for any sunshine not to make much impact in drying the ground much.

But current reports and pix from the site (see efestivals) indicate a lot of damp sogginess already, with some mud in places. Main aim over the buildup period would be is to avoid another several-hours-long heavy downpour like today's or (even worse) like last Sunday's. Although I;ve read reports form Pilton and Glastonbury and Shepton that today's rain was not as stupidly heavy as in West Wales and Cornwall!

As crew, we arrive on site on Sunday. Will be offline from here after tonight opr at latest, after tomorow (Sat) morning ...

THANKS to JACK for all his hard work and forecasts and help. Always appreciated, every year..

Looking at GFS 18Hz, it suggest between 15-25mm of rain in the next 144 hours. After which it should be mostly dry.

[William of Walworth]

Can cope with that, it's manageable(ish!), lets hope this is confirmed or even lessened in future runs. And that it all dries up afterwards ....

We leave Swansea for Glastonbury this morning, we'll be off the forecast radar except indirectly (onsite mate's gadgetry)

Thanks again for all your help and I hope I survive to post again on the other side --28th or 29th June!

[Reub3n]

Still no 0 or 1, JACK. <_<

Thanks for all the hard work. I go prepared for all weather conditions anyway, and I think we're all gonna have to be resigned to the fact that there will be some wet and mud around.

We've coped before and we'll cope again. Mostly by drinking lots of booze and having lots of fun.

The show must go on!

Edited June 18, 2011 by Reub3n