Glastonbury Update (18Th June)

[J10]

GFS 06Hz

Monday starts with a low pressure system to the the west of Ireland, with SW winds over the UK, with a few showery outbreaks of rain over SW England for the afternoon and evening. The Low pressure moves slowly NE into Tuesday and over Ireland. So showers over many areas, but mainly light over Southern areas, and rainfall totals not that huge. Wednesday sees the low pressure move away to the North and then East, showers are possible for much of the day, and a period of heavier rain is possible for a time early afternoon, but no massive rainfall totals.

Thursday sees a slack NW flow, as with recent runs, an increased chance of showery activity on Thursday afternoon compared to both Tuesday and Wednesday. Friday sees a small ridge pushing up from the South west, but some showers are possible in the afternoon, but probably missing SW areas for the most part. Similar on Saturday, mostly high pressure but the odd shower possible. Low Pressure attempts to push in from the South West but the High Pressure holding mostly firm, despite this some patchy rain may edge in from SW parts.

All in all a rather damp festival, but real heavy rain, but some rain possible on most days, although some days may be mostly dry. A 6 Is justified.

850Hpa Temps around 4-5c generally to start, falling to 0-1c by Thursday, finally rising over the weekend to 8-9c, Temps around 15c to 16c, but 18-19c on Sunday.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/06/102/h850t850eu.png (Wed Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/06/126/h850t850eu.png (Thu Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/06/150/h850t850eu.png (Fri Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/06/168/h850t850eu.png (Sat Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/06/192/h850t850eu.png (Sun Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/06/102/ukprec.png (Wed Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/06/126/ukprec.png (Thu Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/06/150/ukprec.png (Fri Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/06/168/ukprec.png (Sat Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/06/192/ukprec.png (Sun Rain)

GFS 12Hz

Monday starts with a low pressure system to the the west of Ireland, with SW winds over the UK, mostly dry over Glastonbury, but a period of rain mid afternoon, followed by showers in the evening, rainfall around 4-5mm max. the Low pressure moves slowly north into Tuesday and over Ireland. So showers over many areas, but mainly light over Southern areas, and rainfall totals not that huge. Wednesday sees the low pressure move away to the east, leaving behind another day of sunshine and showers, at worst moderate showers are possible, but probably not amounting to that much.

Thursday sees a slack NW flow, as with recent runs, an increased chance of showery activity on Thursday compared to both Tuesday and Wednesday. Friday sees a small ridge pushing up from the South west, severely limiting showery activity. Despite higher pressure over southern areas on Saturday, low pressure pushes up from the South West bringing moderate rain

for the morning and afternoon, (prob 5-10mm). Sunday is in between the systems mostly dry during the day, but further rain spreading up from the SW during the evening. Being positive I will rate this run a 7.

850Hpa Temps around 4-5c generally to start, falling to 2-3c by Thursday, finally rising over the weekend to 6-7c, Temps around 15c to 17c, but 18-19c on Sunday.

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/12/96/h850t850eu.png (Wed Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/12/120/h850t850eu.png (Thu Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/12/144/h850t850eu.png (Fri Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/12/168/h850t850eu.png (Sat Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/12/192/h850t850eu.png (Sun Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/12/96/ukprec.png (Wed Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/12/120/ukprec.png (Thu Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/12/144/ukprec.png (Fri Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/12/168/ukprec.png (Sat Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110618/12/192/ukprec.png (Sun Rain)

ECM 00Hz

Monday starts with a low pressure system to the South West coast of Ireland, this moves over Ireland by Tuesday. Early Wednesday sees it over Northern areas. Thursday sees low pressure with a NW flow. So a mix of sunshine and showers with rainfall amounts similar to the GFS charts so far today (quite similar to the ECM 12Hz run as well.

On Friday, there is a ridge of High pressure from the SW, and this builds over the weekend as least for Southern areas, Low Pressure tries to push in, but at this stage, it looks as if the High pressure will win. So this run gets a 4.

850Hpa daily amounts 5,4,2,4,8 by Sunday.

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110618/00/ecmt850.096.png (Wed)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110618/00/ecmt850.120.png (Thu)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110618/00/ecmt850.144.png (Fri)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110618/00/ecmt850.168.png (Sat)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110618/00/ecmt850.192.png (sun)

ECM 12HZ

Monday starts with a low pressure system to the South West coast of Ireland, this moves over Ireland by Tuesday. Wednesday sees it move away to the east of the UK. Thursday sees low pressure with a NW flow. So a mix of sunshine and showers with rainfall amounts similar to the GFS charts so far today.

On Friday, Pressure builds over the Atlantic and to 1020mb over Western areas, so looking drier over Western parts. Pressure continue to build over the Weekend, so looking mostly settled for Glastonbury and probably dry. So this run gets a 4.

850Hpa daily amounts 3,1,1,3,5 by Sunday.

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110618/12/ecmt850.096.png (Wed)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110618/12/ecmt850.120.png (Thu)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110618/12/ecmt850.144.png (Fri)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110618/12/ecmt850.168.png (Sat)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110618/12/ecmt850.192.png (sun)

UKMO only goes as far as T+144, Friday, but the ridging over Southern areas, is very similar to ECM 00Hz, which augers well for a dry weekend.

Ensembles

Not Available

Summary

The Weather for Monday to Thursday looks pretty sorted, quite unsettle with some showers at time, The GFS rainfall total out to T+144, is around 15mm. (the wettest day Monday at around 4mm.)

After this ECM suggest a dry weekend, GFS more unsettled with frontal rain from the west.

All in all quite damp rather than wet, and even though you might favour ECM over GFS, I'd still say that 5.5 is the total score tonight.