Glastonbury (20Th June Update)

[J10]

Starting off with today, it does appear that the rain band pushing north was a bit heavier than forecast, going by radar and eye witness accounts. If this could be confirmed (or not) I would be grateful.

Tuesday :- The Low Pressure starting to the SW of Ireland moving NE again, into Southern Scotland by the end of the day. The mild SW flow continuing over southern areas, with the chance of showers, certainly looking drier than Monday.

Wednesday :- The Low Pressure continuing to move east, with the centre finally clearing Eastern areas late afternoon, early evening. A South West flow veering West to North West later. It looks mostly dry to start the day but a band of rain moving east across Glastonbury, early afternoon, probably not that heavy, followed by moderate showers in the afternoon

Thursday ;- A NW flow over the UK, with generally quite low pressure, this feeding showers over the UK. Staying mostly dry in the morning, a few showers in the afternoon, which might be moderate.

Friday :- A small ridge of High Pressure from the West or South West, looking mostly dry.

Weekend :- High Pressure does look likely to ridge in from the South West, which should keep it mostly dry, however some patchy rain is possible but probably the outside bet at that moment.

Temps generally around 15-17c, but warming up over the weekend. GFS rainfall totals from now until Sunday up to T+144, are around 16-17mm, but half of this is due to fall in the 24hrs to Tuesday.

GFS 06Hz

Tuesday should see southern areas missing the worst of the showers, but a damp and rather cloudy day. Wednesday sees a day of sunshine and showers, more especially into the afternoon and generally light and patchy. Thursday sees a NW flow, and staying mostly dry over Glastonbury. Friday sees a ridge, so it staying dry, however some patchy rain set to push in overnight into Saturday, but this looks mostly light. Despite High Pressure over the weekend, (a small ridge, rather than dominant HP), some patchy rain pushing in from the west at times but really not amounting to that much. Max Temps 17,15,15,17,22

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/06/54/h850t850eu.png (Wed Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/06/78/h850t850eu.png (Thu Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/06/104/h850t850eu.png (Fri Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/06/126/h850t850eu.png (Sat Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/06/150/h850t850eu.png (Sun Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/06/54/ukprec.png (Wed Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/06/78/ukprec.png (Thu Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/06/104/ukprec.png (Fri Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/06/126/ukprec.png (Sat Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/06/150/ukprec.png (Sun Rain)

GFS 12Hz

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/12/48/h850t850eu.png (Wed Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/12/72/h850t850eu.png (Thu Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/12/96/h850t850eu.png (Fri Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/12/120/h850t850eu.png (Sat Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/12/144/h850t850eu.png (Sun Temp Press)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/12/48/ukprec.png (Wed Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/12/72/ukprec.png (Thu Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/12/96/ukprec.png (Fri Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/12/120/ukprec.png (Sat Rain)

http://www.netweather.tv/gfsimages2/gfs.20110620/12/144/ukprec.png (Sun Rain)

Tuesday should see southern areas missing the worst of the showers, but a damp and rather cloudy day. Wednesday sees a day of sunshine and showers, more especially into the afternoon. Thursday should be dry to start, but showers developing into the afternoon. Friday sees a small ridge pushing up from the South, but this does mean a mostly dry day. The weekend sees higher pressure over southern areas, and despite a SW flow, and rain pushing in from the NW, it looks dry over southern areas. Daily Temps, 17,16,16,18,22.

ECM 00Hz

Synoptically in line with the theme over the past couple of days, until Friday. Friday sees pressure ridge in from the South West. The weekend sees a continuation of Pressure ridging over southern areas, which should keep things dry, although the dryness not as certain as the ECM 12Hz.

So showers likely Wednesday and Thursday, turning drier over the weekend.

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110620/00/ecmt850.048.png (Wed)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110620/00/ecmt850.072.png (Thu)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110620/00/ecmt850.096.png (Fri)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110620/00/ecmt850.120.png (Sat)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110620/00/ecmt850.144.png (sun)

ECM 12Hz

Synoptically in line with the general theme, Friday sees pressure ridge in from the South West. Saturday also sees riding High Pressure from the South West this becoming more dominant on Sunday.

So showers likely Wednesday and Thursday, turning drier over the weekend.

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110620/12/ecmt850.048.png (Wed)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110620/12/ecmt850.072.png (Thu)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110620/12/ecmt850.096.png (Fri)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110620/12/ecmt850.120.png (Sat)

http://www.netweather.tv/ecmimages2/20110620/12/ecmt850.144.png (sun)

UKMO 12hz

The theme as per the other models, however, not so settled on Sunday with the High pressure further east, perhaps allowing low pressure to also push further east.

Summary

Not that much has changed, Some rain or showers possible up to Thursday and possibly Friday, looking drier and more settled over the weekend, with a chance of some warmer weather.

The score remains a 6 (0=dustbowl, 10=mudbath) , no dustbowl, and no mudbath,

[IanM]

Morning

According to the radar, total rainfall over the site was around 8mm in the past 24 hours, not too bad considering the heavier longer lasting rain once again bounced off the Pilton dome and fell to the south......