Tropical Storm Arlene

[Paranoid]

We have the first storm of the 2011 season, forming out of a tropical wave in the GOM.

000

WTNT31 KNHC 290015

TCPAT1

BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011

700 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2011

...TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.2N 93.7W

ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO

ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE

COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO

BAHIA ALGODONES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* BARRA DE NAUTLA TO BAHIA ALGODONES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR

PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. ARLENE IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN

TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185

KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8

INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ...WITH

POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS

TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND

MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST

WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE

PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO

2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND

TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE

COAST...THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE

WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN

[EMids WeatherWatcher]

At last CIMMS Tropical Cyclone site has Arlene info.

Visible

Edited June 29, 2011 by EMids WeatherWatcher

[onlyME]

Images of Arlene

[Somerset Squall]

Indeed, we have Arlene. The tropical wave over the Yucatan span up pretty quickly once over the Bay Of Campeche (BOC). The topography and shape of the BOC does favour spin and this is what caused the fast formation of Arlene. It is probably aiding the fairly quick intensification too; intensity is now at 45kts. Shear has eased off over Arlene, and waters are warm right through to the Mexican coast, which is where Arlene is headed on a generally westward track on the south side of a strong ridge north of the storm. Both these favourable environmental factors suggest intensification, and Arlene could be approaching hurricane intensity at landfall. NHC comment on the fact that the SHIPS rapid intensification index shows a "significantly high" chance of a 25-30kt increase of intensity over the next 24hrs, and the storm has almost 36hrs left over water.

[Somerset Squall]

Looking more and more organised as time goes by, some good banding features indicative of a healthy system. Recon are en route to investigate Arlene.

Edited June 29, 2011 by Somerset Squall

[Stu Robinson]

Arlene has intensified and now looks much better on Radar. A recent aircraft RECON flight has found 60knot winds which is just below CAT1 hurricane strength. DORVAK number are now up to 3

Arlene could quite possibly become a CAT1 hurricane before landfall as the upper air shear that was hindering development has now decreased.

[Cookie]

thanks for the updates guys so we're off and running!

[Cookie]

WTNT61 KNHC 292231

TCUAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARLENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012011

530 PM CDT WED JUN 29 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO...ARLENE

A LITTLE STRONGER...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND

HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA

NORTHWARD TO LA CRUZ.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS IN ARLENE HAVE INCREASED TO 60 MPH AND THAT THE

TROPICAL STORM IS LOCATED A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS

ESTIMATE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE FORWARD MOTION OF ARLENE HAS

SLOWED DOWN...HOWEVER...A WESTWARD MOTION AT A FASTER FORWARD

SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT.

SUMMARY OF 530 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION

------------------------------------------------- -

LOCATION...21.3N 95.6W

ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM ESE OF TAMPICO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$

[onlyME]

Arlene just made landfall in Mexico with sustained winds of 60 mph,gusting to 75 mph.

There is a possibility that Arlene was hurricane at the landfall because of eye:

The eye on satellite:

[Cookie]

some raw footage

[Cookie]

First Visible image of the day!

[Somerset Squall]

After attaining a peak intensity of 55kts before landfall (I believe if Arlene literally had another 6-12hrs over water she would have become a hurricane), Arlene is swiftly weakening over land on the continued westward heading. The low and mid level centres are decoupling and overall Arlene looks somewhat elongated. Intensity has fallen to 35kts, and Arlene will soon weaken to a tropical depression. Dissipation is expected in about 24hrs, possibly sooner.