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AutumnMists Apprentice

AutumnMists

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, in the Historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 205m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: Mists, Hot, Rain, Bit of snow. Thick frosts are awesome
  • Location: Saddleworth, in the Historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 205m a.s.l
Posted

Can we trust historical data for weather forecasting?

The concept of another 'cold' or 'below average' winter seems to be talked upon a lot over the last few days, however historical data would appear to go strongly against the concept of a fourth consecutive cold winter in a row. Can we trust historical data? Or can sunspot measures and charts and graphs that we have these days prove it to be wrong?

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

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  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

A simple answer is no we cannot.

Just because it has not happened before does not mean that something will not happen again.

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AutumnMists Apprentice

AutumnMists

Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, in the Historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 205m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: Mists, Hot, Rain, Bit of snow. Thick frosts are awesome
  • Location: Saddleworth, in the Historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 205m a.s.l
  • Author
Posted

A simple answer is no we cannot.

Just because it has not happened before does not mean that something will not happen again.

Yes, i suppose so, although three consecutive cold winters has happened before, followed by a mild or average one. This has happened many times, but i don't know, like you said, that was then and this is now.

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted

The weather does not work via averages.

Historical pattern matching has been proven in the past to be inaccurate.

The atmosphere is like a fluid, thus largely unpredictable.

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