Tropical Storm Fernanda

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

The sixth tropical depression of the East Pacific season formed this morning in the extreme west of the basin. Since this time, 06E has strengthened and become Tropical Storm Fernanda, with intensity at 40kts. Fernanda is set to cross into the Central Pacific basin well southeast of Hawaii in a few days time. Convection is bursting over a well defined LLC, and conditions appear marginally conducive for some further intensification over the next day or so as shear remains low. However, waters are only marginally warm enough to support development and do cool on the west-northwesterly track. In addition, an abundance of dry and stable air resides north of Fernanda which will serve to weaken the storm in a couple days time and eventually dissipate it. Fernanda shouldn't affect land.

[Somerset Squall]

Fernanda is behaving rather surprisingly this evening. Convection has continued to expand over the LLC and banding features continue to develop. Intensity has risen to 45kts. Fernanda is now forecast to become a hurricane as low shear and excellent outflow combat dry and stable air to the north of the system. Eventually, the latter should win out and kill off Fernanda, but it certainly doesn't look like staying a weak affair anymore!

[Cookie]

[Somerset Squall]

Fernanda has maintained a general westward track and an intensity of 45kts. Whilst the inner core of Fernanda remains well defined and organised due to the good upper level outflow, the convection is generally much more shallow as the dry and stable air to the north of Fernanda filters into the storm. For this reason, significant intensification is no longer expected, and when the shear rises and waters further cool in about 48hrs time, Fernanda should quickly weaken.

[onlyME]

Fernanda's now a moderate 55 mph tropical storm which will soon cross into CPAC.

Deep convection over Fernanda has increased.

[Somerset Squall]

Convection has bulit nicely over Fernanda's LLC today and resembles a central dense overcast. This is despite being embedded in a dry and stable air mass. Intensity has risen to 55kts, but no further intensification is expected to due to the dry and stable air. However, I don't think it's impossible (not likely, but possible) that Fernanda could still become a hurricane briefly as it looks like there could be hints of an eye on latest satellite imagery. Bottom line is that the further west-northwest Fernanda travels, the worse the environment becomes so the long term outlook is bleak for the storm.

[Cookie]

small window at most to become a hurricane.

also worth a note now into the Central Pacific

[Somerset Squall]

Fernanda didn't make it to hurricane status, and instead, has succumbed to the dry and stable air, and an increase in shear. Intensity has fallen to 35kts. A small cell of convection clings onto the LLC, but with the unfavourable environment expected to persist, Fernanda is soon expected to degenerate into a non-convective remnant low.

[Somerset Squall]

Fernanda has degenerated into a remnant low. High shear should prevent re-development.