Super Typhoon Nalgae

[onlyME]

OK,we got TD 22.

Now it's far from any bigger land mass.

Here's a forecast map to show the location of TD 22.

Taiwan and Luzon need to watch this storm.

There is some dry air to the northwest of TD 22.

This could intensify pretty fast when convection wraps around the southwestern quadrant.

Edited September 27, 2011 by onlyME

[Somerset Squall]

The dry air seems to be the only limiting factor for 22W, and as the cyclone grows stronger it may be able to mix this dry air out with outflow. As you say onlyME, Luzon and Taiwan need to watch this storm initially, but later down the line Southern China and Hainan Island do too if the ridging to the north remains strong forcing a continuation of the westward track. Really not a good time so soon after Nesat, and if 22W gets as far as Hainan Island, it will be the third tropical cyclone in under under 10 days to affect the island.

[onlyME]

Tropical Depression 22 W intensified and was named Tropical storm Nalgae(what a funny name).

It is well organized and there is a formative eye wall.

According to JTWC,Algae will intensify to Category 2 strength before making landfall in extreme northern Luzon.

P.S. How to rename the thread to Tropical Storm Nalgae?

[Somerset Squall]

I've asked Pottyprof to change the thread title. He is usually very obliging

Yes, Nalgae is looking pretty good. A small central dense overcast feature has formed with the beginnings of an eye emerging on satellite imagery. Intensity is 50kts. Nalgae's small size does make it a candidate for rapid intensification. This may be hindered though by some dry air west of the LLC. Nalgae is still on course for northern Luzon, and then the South China Sea.

[Somerset Squall]

Tropical storm Nalgae(what a funny name).

It means buttock in Spanish

[onlyME]

It means buttock in Spanish

Nalgas means buttock.

OK,I won't offtopic.

Algae intensified to Category 1 strength.

It is forecasted to reach Category 3 strength before landfall in northern Luzon.

Then it will move westward through South Chinese Sea and brush Hainan as a Category 1 before landfall in Vietnam.

AMSRE microwave image shows convective bands only on the east of LLCC.

[Coast]

[Somerset Squall]

Oops, sorry OnlyME, lol.

Nalgae has indeed become a typhoon with intensity now at 70kts. The storm has a circular CDO feature and cloud obscured eye. Nalgae will strengthen further in low and warm sea temperatures. Nalgae has actually moved just south of west over the last 12hrs, meaning it will hit Luzon full on rather than scrape the northern coast. Nalgae is then forecast to move into the South China Sea as a minimal typhoon. Shear will rise here, preventing re-intensification but at the same time not causing significant weakening. Tracking across the South China Sea is forecast to be just south of the path Typhoon Nesat took, but this dangerous typhoon will still affect all the same areas as Nesat and Haitang did, worsening flooding and damage.

[Somerset Squall]

Nalgae has rapidly intensified into a 115kt cat 4 typhoon. The typhoon has developed a small, well defined eye. Some further strengthening is expected prior to landfall on the east coast of Luzon in 12hrs time, which is obviously not good news. A track through the South China Sea is still expected, with Hainan Island and northern Vietnam still in the firing line once Nalgae has done with Luzon.

[Somerset Squall]

Nalgae is making landfall on Luzon. Nalgae has intensified to 130kts this morning, making the storm the season's fourth Super Typhoon.

[Somerset Squall]

Luzon's rugged terrain has significantly weakened Nalgae. Intensity has fallen to 80kts. The typhoon has cleared Luzon now and is moving westwards just south of Hainan Island towards Vietnam. Moderate shear should limit any major re-intensification but Nalgae nevertheless remains a highly dangerous, moistue laden typhoon.

[Somerset Squall]

Nalgae has weakened more than expected over the South China Sea. Sea temps have cooled significantly due to upwelling caused by both Haitang and Nesat last week. As a consequence, Nalgae has weakened to 50kts as it passes south of Hainan Island. The storm still contains a lot of moisture, so will still worsen flooding over the next few days as it trundles westwards towards it's final landfall in Vietnam.

[Somerset Squall]

Nalgae has crossed the Vietnamese coast and is dissipating. Rains are finally easing too. JTWC have issued their last advisory.