Wiseweather - Weekly Summaries - Monthly Forecasts

[Zenarcher]

This thread will be used to update forecasts from 'Wiseweather'.

Updates every Saturday.

WW FORECAST FOR Monday 7th November – Sunday 13th November 2011

ISSUED Saturday 5th November 1005BST

SEVERE WEATHER RISKS OVER THE PERIOD-None

WEEKLY SUMMARY

A generally settled week for most areas initially but as the high moves away it will allow a front to lie across the west giving showery rain and by midweek a low to the SW brings further showery rain into the SW and west. The week finishes with low pressure to the west in a slack mainly Sly flow bringing more drizzly rain in places but patchy mist and fog too, however central regions of the UK and the east do look set to be fairly dry overall but mainly fairly mild, night and day. Some strong winds in the far SW as well midweek though nothing very unusual for November.

Monday 7th will see high pressure centred over the UK moving away ENE during the day keeping it dry & settled everywhere though with a mild SW’ly flow in the far NW and a NE’ly flow in the far SE. A cold night inland in N England with a slight frost, and patchy fog will be widespread almost anywhere inland across the UK away from the SE. Conversely a very mild night in the far SE with low cloud rolling in & some drizzle here too.A dry day for most with sunny intervals developing as well after the early fog and mist clears but the east and SE staying rather dull & cloudy with a lot of low cloud and drizzle about all day. Temperatures by day up to 11-13C in the brightest areas but more generally 8-11C in the more cloudy spots.

Tuesday 8th looks likely to see a slack E’ly flow continue as the high retreats to Denmark so a chilly night in the north where cloud clears and a slight frost in places along with overnight fog patches which will be slow to clear by day. Further south generally dull with a lot of low cloud & patchy drizzle about though the SW & S Wales may be clearer with sunny spells developing by day. Temperatures reaching 11-12C however some Scottish uplands areas and western & northern & NE’ern areas may only see 6-8C.

Wednesday 9th looks set to see a more SSE’ly flow across all parts as an Atlantic front works slowly east towards Ireland by day. A touch of frost or ground frost to start in a few places inland across Scotlandwhere skies clear overnight enough but for many too much cloud and breeze developing esp in the south & west and very mild night in the south west. By day generally a rather cloudy day with patchy drizzle about almost anywhere in the east and SE. A few sunny periods possible at times inland across the northern and central areas of the UK but there’ll be rather limited. By the afternoon some showery rain affecting the far west and SW. Temperatures will generally be 11-13C again today but more like 14-15C in the SW and only 5-7C over the Scottish uplands.

Thursday 10th is likely to see a front lying across the western UK rather slow moving in a slack S’ly flow. Another very mild night in the far south & SW, less so further north. Outbreaks of light rain, drizzle with hill and coastal mist, fog and low cloud about overnight east of the front will only slowly clear by day giving limited brightness though the east & NE may see some sunny spells. Much of the south west and western areas though will see showery rain at times, the showers possibly rather heavy with a risk of thunder. Temperatures up to 13-15C at best today in the south and SE but elsewhere further to the west & north more like 11-12C but 7C in the western Highlands & far north and northern Isles.

Friday 11th is likely to see the a low develop over Biscay by the afternoon bringing more SE’ly winds back into the most parts, strong in the far SW at times. A generally cloudy night for most parts though with some low cloud and mist about overnight in parts and after this lifts in the morning bright or sunny periods developing in places in the east and NE in particular but they‘ll be quite limited In western parts some showers about all day, some maybe heavy at times. Further showery rain may reach the SW by the afternoon and work slowly NE.Temperatures inland in the south & SW up to about 14-16C at best so feeling mild here but generally further north & west more like 10-13C though 8-11C on exposed north western coasts & through the Highlands and the W & N Isles.

As we move into the weekend on Saturday 12th/Sunday 13th it looks like the rather mild light to moderate SSE’ly flow will continue over all areas with low pressure over or close to the west and fronts slow moving though not especially active in the west and SW these lying more across the north & NW on Sunday perhaps. A lot of early mist & low cloud both days across all areas only slowly clearing, if it does at all. A few sunny periods though for some parts, perhaps esp those to the north of high ground. A slight ground frost is just about possible across Scotland if cloud clears sufficiently but generally mild by night for most. Patchy showery rain in the west and SW on Saturday moving north and east on Sunday. As it will be slow moving some relatively high totals are possible in places. Temperatures by day very mild with 14-16C possible in the south & east on Saturday and 11-13C on Sunday but generally in the west and the north overall it will be more like 11-12C but a little chillier across the Scottish uplands.

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

*Mist, low cloud and a some fog patches widespread at times across inland areas prone to this esp by night throughout the week & weekend at times initially in the week

*Moderate chance of some heavy showers with a risk of thunder over south western parts in particular during Thursday and Friday.

*Perhaps quite windy in the far SW on Friday with gusts to 50mph on exposed SW headlands

*Slight frost possible early in the week inland across Scotland in particular

November 2011 long range forecast : Key points for the weather in the period include

• Tempewrature 1.8C above CET average
  
• UK rainfall –slightly below average (80% of the average)
  
• UK sunshine – slightly above average (120% of the average)
  
• Winds- below average strength & predominantly S-SE’ly
  
• Frosts – somewhat below average
  

In week one from the 1st-7th November it seems likely a mild S- SW’ly flow will continue with on the 1st^t a front working slowly east by day but its rain petering out as it does so, giving only lighter amounts across the east and SE by the afternoon. Clearer in the west with sunny periods and maybe a few showers about in W Scotland. Then in a freshening S’ly flow across all parts another deep low developing SW of Ireland will work slowly north with gales by Wednesday evening in the far NW and giving generally a rather cloudy day with patchy drizzle and light rain about though sunny periods are possible at times across the eastern UK making it very mild, a further low then developing across Biscay and run NNE across the SW later on Thursday as winds swing more SE becoming strong in parts of the south & SW at times, giving outbreaks of light rain, drizzle with hill and coastal mist, fog and low cloud though more showery in the SW later but the showers may become heavy with a risk of thunder. Further north & east a mainly drier day with some sunny periods. By Friday in a generally more south westerly flow some showers in the west but another low may develop over Biscay by evening bringing more persistent showery rain and SE’ly winds back into the south west again. Bright or sunny periods in the north & east under high pressure with night fog but they may be limited. The weekend over the 5th and 6th looks like the rather mild light to moderate E-SE’ly flow will continue over all areas with low pressure to the south or SW and so after early fog, mist or low cloud clears sunny periods for most parts though as fronts push into the far south some outbreaks of showery rain are likely here, possibly heavy at times. From the Midlands north a lot of low cloud and clag by night, exacerbated by any bonfire smoke, which will be rather slow to clear by day though a few sunny periods are likely. High pressure dominating by the 7th so a misty or foggy start with some bright periods developing but strengthening SW winds and patchy rain in the far NW later.

Temperatures by day quite mild in the south & east but generally somewhat cooler in the west and the north overall though still above average. Rainfall near average in the south & east & possibly central areas as well of the UK but rather below average further north across Scotland & N Ireland. Sunshine near average for most parts but above average in the north as long as the mist & low cloud clears by day.

In week two, from the 8th-14th November high pressure to the east or SE allowing a generally anticyclonic flow across most parts at first, so a dry period with some overnight mist and fog patches to clear. Some ground frost inland too. In the far north and west a more S’ly flow will bring more cloud and patchy drizzle. By the middle of the week though around the 10th there may be fronts moving in from the Atlantic bringing some rain across the more northern & NW’ern parts of the UK and it could be quite unsettled at times with blustery showers after this. However most areas further east & south across England and Wales may well stay quite dry though with some early mist, fog or low cloud by night which will need to burn away initially but probably giving at least some sunny periods by day though northern England may see some showery rain too for a while. It does look like more high pressure will move across the south though by the 12th giving misty or foggy nights and hazy days as the fog clears only slowly. Some ground frost by night possible in prone southern inland areas as well. By the week’s end though it seems like a stronger S-SW’ly flow may cover most parts again as the high sinks SE and brings cloud, drizzle & rain to many northern & western area in particular whilst the SE stays a bit drier and brighter.

Temperatures by day quite mild generally in the south & east but generally somewhat cooler in the west and the north overall. Rainfall well below average in the south & east & probably central areas as well of the UK but only slightly below further north across Scotland & N Ireland. Sunshine near or maybe a little below average for most parts.

By week three from the 15th-21st November there seems there may be a trend towards more unsettled weather across the Uk as deep lows develop across the Atlantic and run ENE and a mild upper SW’ly flow predominates across most parts bringing frequent fronts with rain and showers across the north & west especially, and giving a fair amount of rain here. The east and SE still driest in this period but the risk of rain and showers at times here too. There may be weak ridges at times in between the low pressure areas giving short drier spells with the risk of some inland night frost and patchy mist. The end of the week may well see a more settled trend return with high pressure ridging in from the west bring a colder NW’ly spell for a time. Some of the shows wintry over the mountains in the north.

Not especially chilly anywhere on the whole but equally not too warm either; the nights should not be too chilly though local ground frosts are possible in inland areas under any brief high pressure. Rainfall will likely be near or slightly above average for the north & west but elsewhere slightly below average, sunshine will likely be near or a little above average in most southern parts but slightly below average in the north.

The last week through to the month’s end from the 22nd-30th November is –as ever –uncertain; so we are suggesting- mainly based on climatology and patterning- a rather more settled theme is possible for many parts as high pressure lies close to the UK but exactly where is uncertain. A north or NW’ly flow initially though but as high pressure moves closer it will be a more anticyclonic flow. Low pressure areas may develop to the south west bringing some showery rain and a rather chilly E-NE‘ly flow for a time in the south & east. The north may be drier in week 4 though overall and see some mist, fog and frost by night inland.

Near average temperatures on the whole though the nights will not be too chilly either except in the shots of colder polar maritime air in the north when air frosts are likely as the nights lengthen. Rainfall will be below average overall but perhaps nearer average in the SW . Sunshine may be near or slightly above average in the west & NW though perhaps rather below average in the east & SE.

Overall through the month, temperatures generally rather above average in most parts and more especially so by night. Sunshine overall should be a little above average in the south & east with the west and the north doing rather less well overall, where it will stay nearer average. Rainfall generally rather below average in central, southern & and eastern areas but the NW in particular probably rather closer to average. Frosts will be generally rather below average. Sea temperatures seem likely to be near or rather above average for most coastal areas but about average around western coasts with soil temperatures generally near or above average for most parts and soil moisture near average for most western & northern areas, though rather below average across SE and eastern England.

[Zenarcher]

A generally dry, mild and fairly settled week for most areas initially but as the North Sea high moves away it will allow fronts to move eastwards across western and central parts bringing showery rain and the week finishes with low pressure to the north west in a mainly SW’ly flow bringing more drizzly rain in places but an overnight risk of patchy mist and fog too, however eastern and southern parts of the UK do look set to be fairly dry overall and mainly mild or even very mild, especially by day.

Monday 14th will see high pressure centred ENE of the UK keeping it dry & mild everywhere with a mild SE’ly flow. Not a cold night anywhere though there may be some low cloud, mist and patchy fog almost anywhere inland across the UK. Then a dry day everywhere and a very mild one in the south with sunny periods in the west esp in the northwestern lee of western hills but perhaps more in the way of low cloud rolling in from the North Sea near east & SE coasts. Temperatures by day up to 13-15C in the brightest southern areas but more generally 11-12C in the north after the mist clears and 7-8C in the Highlands.

Tuesday 15th looks likely to see a slack E’ly flow for most as the high retreats to Denmark so given clearing skies a more chilly night in the central & northern areas of the UK and a slight ground frost in places along with overnight mist, low cloud & fog patches which will be slow to clear by day. Further south generally a lot of low cloud to start probably though the SW & S Wales may be clearer with sunny spells developing by day for many areas. Temperatures reaching 12-14C in the south but generally more like 9-11C as the mist slowly clears further north and some Scottish uplands areas and western & northern & NE’ern areas may only see 6-8C.

Wednesday 16th looks set to see a more SE’ly flow across all parts as the high pressure retreats away east and an Atlantic front works slowly east towards the SW’ern UK and N Ireland by day. A touch of frost or ground frost to start in a few places inland across many parts inland north of the M4 where skies clear overnight enough but further south too much cloud and breeze developing esp in the south-west and a mild night here. By day generally a rather misty start everywhere inland but clearing slowly in the east to give some sunny periods but further south & west some patchy drizzle about almost anywhere and by the early afternoon some moderate rain here too along with the NW of the UK, esp N Ireland, though becoming more showery later in most parts. Temperatures will generally be 11-13C again in the south and SE but more like 7-10C further north and only 4-7C over the Scottish uplands.

Thursday 17th is likely to see a front lying across the western UK rather slow moving in a slack SW’ly flow. Another very mild night in the far south & SW, less so further north. Outbreaks of light rain, drizzle with hill and coastal mist, fog and low cloud about overnight east of the front will only slowly clear by day giving limited brightness though the east & NE may see some sunny spells. Much of the south west and western areas though will see showery rain at times. Temperatures up to 13-15C at best today in the south and SE but elsewhere further to the west & north more like 9-12C but only 6-7C in the Highlands & far north and northern Isles.

Friday 18th is likely to see a bit more of a ridge from the continental high across the south & east at least but keeping the milder Sw’ly winds in the far NW. A generally cloudy night for most north western parts but further south & east clearing skies may bring some patchy mist, low cloud and fog patches and a slight ground frost in a few inland spots. After this lifts in the morning bright or sunny periods developing in places in the south & east in particular but they‘ll be quite limited. In north western parts some showers about all day, some maybe heavy at times with thunder. Further light showery rain may reach the SW by the afternoon and work slowly NE. Temperatures inland in the south & SW up to about 12-14C at best so feeling mild here but generally further north & west more like 9-11C though 6-8C on exposed north western coasts & through the Highlands and the W & N Isles.

As we move into the weekend on Saturday 19th/Sunday 20th it looks like a rather mild moderate SWly flow will continue over all areas with low pressure to the north west and perhaps fronts slow moving though not especially active in the north west . A lot of early mist & low cloud both days across all areas only slowly clearing, if it does at all. A few sunny periods though for some southern and eastern parts, perhaps esp those to the east or NE of high ground. A slight ground frost is just about possible across Scotland if cloud clears sufficiently but generally mild by night for most. The patchy showery rain in the west and NW on Saturday moving north and east on Sunday but it should not affect the south & east too much where pressure will be higher. Temperatures by day very mild with 14-15C possible in the south & east on Saturday and Sunday and generally in the Midlands, west and the north overall it will be more like 10-11C but chillier across the Scottish uplands at 6-7C.

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

*Mist, low cloud and a some fog patches rather widespread at times across inland areas prone to this esp by night throughout the week & weekend at times initially in the week

*Moderate chance of some heavy showers with a risk of thunder over north western parts in particular during Thursday.

*Perhaps quite windy in the far NW by the week’s end with gusts to 55mph on exposed headlands

*Slight frost possible inland mid week this across central Northern England & central and eastern Scotland in particular

Source

[Zenarcher]

SEVERE WEATHER RISKS OVER THE PERIOD-Storm winds across exposed northern areas on Wednesday and during the weekend. Snow with drifting & blizzards on some Scottish high ground.

WEEKLY SUMMARY

A generally unsettled week for most areas; as the North Sea high moves away it will allow fronts to move eastwards across western and central parts bringing showery rain; Wednesday in particular may see quite a deep low affect the north with severe gales about and the week finishes with a more polar air mass established and low pressure areas run SE bringing more rain and showers for most parts perhaps further severe gales are likely here too but an overnight risk of some patchy mist and frost locally; this more so in the north and east; eastern and southern parts of the UK do look set to be drier overall and there will be some mild days initially here.

Monday 28th will see high pressure move away east bringing a SW'ly flow across the UK keeping it dry & mild everywhere. Not a cold night anywhere though there may be some low cloud, mist and patchy fog almost anywhere inland across the UK and a slight ground frost too in eastern areas. Then a dry day in the east and central parts and a quite mild one in the south & SW with sunny periods but as fronts move in from the west by day light rain and drizzle will affect the west with hill and coastal low cloud and fog. It will become quite windy in the west as well with near gales in he Irish Sea. Temperatures by day up to 13-14C in the mildest southern & SW'ern areas but more generally 6-8C in the Midlands, east and north after the mist slowly clears and 4-5C in the Highlands.

Tuesday 29th looks likely to see a mild murky night for most in the fresh-gale SW'ly flow for most with overnight mist, low cloud & fog patches slow to clear for many by day. Mainly light rain reaching eastern parts in the afternoon. Further west generally a lot of low cloud and outbreaks of rain at times, heavy on western upslopes. By the afternoon though it'll be more showery in the west as winds veer W'ly. The winds will be gale force around western coasts with gusts to 60mph in exposed spots. Temperatures reaching 12-14C in the south but generally more like 7-9C further north and some Scottish uplands areas and western & northern & NE’ern areas may only see 2-4C with a risk of some hill snow later on.

Wednesday 30th looks set to see a more SW’ly flow across all parts as further fronts and associated area of low pressure moves NE into the northern UK later with severe gales reaching some parts of the west and NW and gusts to 65mph. A touch of frost or ground frost to start in a few places inland across many parts inland north of the M4 where skies clear overnight enough but generally too much of a breeze esp in the south-west and a milder night here. Showers continuing around western coasts and hills, some heavy with a risk of hail in the NW. By day generally a rather misty start everywhere inland but clearing in the east to give some sunny periods but further north and west further showers or showery rain at times almost anywhere some with hail. esp in W & N Scotland & N Ireland. These merging into more continuous rain for a time as well during the day probably, some heavy over northern upslopes, and of sleet or snow over high ground in the Highlands but blustery or squally showers again by evening in the NW. Temperatures will generally be 10-11C in the south and SE but more like 5-7C further north and only 2-4C over the Scottish uplands where the hill snow is possible also later on as well in the showers.

Thursday 1st December is uncertain but may well see fronts moving away east and a rather showery chilly NW'ly polar maritime airmass covering most areas A mildish night in the far south & SE, less so further north with a touch of ground frost and icy patches in the far north & Highlands in particular. By day much of the north and west areas will see further showers or showery rain at times, some heavy with a risk of hail and thunder and they may be wintry in the NW too with hill snow in the Highlands. Frosty by evening as the winds die down a little in the more sheltered spots almost anywhere with some local icy patches. Temperatures up to 8-11C at best today in the south and SW but elsewhere further to the west & north more like 5-7C but only 2-3C in the Highlands & far north and northern Isles.

Friday 2nd is likely to see a W or NW;'ly flow across all parts so after a lull in the east and central areas overnight with a touch of ground frost inland locally bright or sunny periods developing in places in the south & east in particular but they‘ll be quite limited in western & north western parts as further showers develop by day, some maybe heavy at times with a risk of hail & localised thunder. Further areas of showery rain may reach the north west by the afternoon and work ESE by evening into other northern parts. Temperatures inland in the south & SW up to about 6-9C at best but generally further north & west more like 4-7C though just 3-5C through the Highlands and the W & N Isles.

As we move into the weekend on Saturday 3rd/Sunday 4th it looks like a very unsettled regime will persist with further areas of low pressure developing to the NW and running ESE into the North Sea. So a rather chilly NW'ly flow will continue over all areas with a risk of severe gale to storm winds in the north at times as the low develops & gusts to 75mph in exposed northern areas. A few sunny periods though for some southern and eastern parts by day where it may be driest overall but showers or longer spells of rain are likely at times here too. A slight ground frost is just about possible across inland parts by night if cloud clears sufficiently but generally a bit milder by night in the SW. The showers or showery rain theme continuing on Sunday but confidence is low on details, it may well be another low runs SE across the UK then bringing more persistent rain for many -or snow in the Highlands. It does seem some quite strong winds could affect the north though as mentioned with gusts to 75mph or more certainly not out of the question. Temperatures by day about 7-9C in the south & east on Saturday and Sunday and generally 5-7C in the Midlands & west but in the north overall it will be more like 3-6C but very cold across the Scottish uplands at 1-2C, where some quite heavy snow is possible at times with drifting.

FEATURES TO MONITOR THIS WEEK

*Moderate chance of some heavy showers with a risk of hail & thunder over north western parts in particular during the latter part of the week.

*Perhaps quite windy in the exposed north, NE, west & NW both on Wednesday and during the weekend with gusts to 70-80mph on exposed headlands

*Slight frost possible inland mid week this across central Northern England & central and eastern Scotland in particular

*Some snow on northern hills after midweek and there may be blizzards with drifting in the Highlands & Northern Scotland high ground in particular on mountains above about 400m.

Source

[Zenarcher]

December 2011 Forecast,

Key points for the weather in the period include

• Temperature- overall mean (CET for England); near average (+0.3C)
  
• UK rainfall –near or slightly below average (90% of the average)
  
• UK sunshine – slightly above average (115% of the average)
  
• Winds- near average strength & predominantly NW’ly
  
• Frost and snow – near average
  

In week one from the 1st-7th December it seems likely a rather chilly NW’ly flow will become established across all parts with the risk of snow in the north in particular and night frosts. Certainly a quite unsettled period as well as quite deep low pressure systems develop to the west and move quickly east or SE across or close to the UK. Initially on the 1st a deep low will swing across the far north bring severe gales here and heavy rain for a time before a more showery regime returns to all parts, some showers wintry over northern hills. A brief respite on the 2nd as showers die out by evening giving a touch of frost in the east but more wet and windy weather soon sweeping into the west with severe gales again in the far north west through the day on the 3rd followed by westerly winds with blustery showers, wintry again over northern hills. A deepening low looks set to move across central areas by Sunday 4th bringing further rain for many, perhaps wintry in the north & some Channel gales are likely. The end of the week sees a cold NW’ly flow for all parts with wintry showers in places especially NW’ern coasts; the best of the weak sunshine in the SE. Overnight frosts in the most sheltered parts but the wind will mean many do not see them, though they may be severe in Highland Scotland along with icy patches. Another low may swing ESE across northern Scotland by about the 6th bringing gales & outbreaks of rain again, wintry in the north with hill snow & drifting in places, followed again by blustery wintry showers for many, away from the SE. Temperatures by day near average in the south & east but generally rather cold in the north and north west overall with some cold nights too. Rainfall near average in the south & east & possibly central areas as well of the UK but rather above average further north across Scotland & N Ireland. Sunshine near average for most parts but perhaps slightly above in the south & east

In week two, from the 8th-14th December the quite cold cyclonic flow will likely continue at least initially across most parts as low pressure areas swing down from the NW across northern areas bringing outbreaks of showery rain, sleet or snow for many areas of the north and west but on the whole the south and especially the SE will be drier and brighter at times.Some frost and icy patches inland by night too and in fact central & Highland Scotland may see some notably cold nights in places over the snowfields. By the middle of the week though around the 11th- 12th it may become rather drier as weak high pressure areas develop and influence the UK rather more. This will keep it quite cold and inland freezing fog may be slow to clear. Still some wintry showers around exposed coasts. By the week’s end though it seems like a stronger S-SW’ly flow may move into the more western parts again bringing milder air as high pressure pulls away east or SE and brings cloud, drizzle & rain to many northern & western area in particular whilst the SE stays generally drier, brighter and still fairly chilly.

Temperatures by day quite cold generally but generally a bit less cold and locally near average in the south & east overall. Rainfall staying rather below average in the south & east & probably central areas as well of the UK but nearer average further north across Scotland & N Ireland. Sunshine near average for most parts but perhaps a little above in the east.

By week three from the 15th-21st December there seems there may be a trend towards more unsettled weather

across the UK as low pressure develops across the mid Atlantic and a mild upper SW’ly flow predominates across most western parts bringing some rain and showers across the north & west especially, and possibly giving a fair amount of rain here. The east and SE may stay more under the influence of high pressure in this period but there’s a risk of rain and showers at times here too later on. In the SE there’s the risk of some inland night frost and patchy mist. The end of the week may well a battle between the more settled weather in the east with the westerly flow from the Atlantic. It really is not possible at this stage to say which is most likely to succeed but there is at least a chance of a rather colder flow establishing both from the east or the NW in the period with the milder SW’ly airmass becoming squeezed out. . Not especially cold anywhere on the whole but equally not too mild either away from the far west ; the nights should not be too cold, although local frosts are possible in inland areas under the influence of high pressure. Rainfall will likely be near or slightly above average for the north & west but elsewhere slightly below average, sunshine will likely be near or a little above average in most southern parts but slightly below average in the northwest

.

The last week through to the month’s end covering the Xmas period from the 22nd-30th December is –as ever –uncertain; so we are suggesting- mainly based on climatology and patterning- a rather more settled theme is possible for many southern parts as high pressure lies close to the UK but exactly where is uncertain. Quite deep low pressure areas may then develop to the north west bringing some showery rain SE across most parts, this wintry in the north and a rather strong and chilly NW‘ly flow for a time. The south & east may be drier both earlier & later on in weeks 4/5 as well and see some mist, fog and frost by night inland. The north may see some quite wintry weather for a time though, especially over hills.

Near or a little below average temperatures on the whole though the nights will not be too chilly either except in the shots of colder polar maritime air in the north when air frosts are likely. Rainfall will be below average overall but perhaps nearer average in the west and NW. Sunshine may be near or slightly below average in the west & NW though perhaps nearer average in the east & SE.

Overall through the month, temperatures generally near average in most parts night and day. Sunshine overall should be a little above average in the south & east with the west and the north doing rather less well overall, where it will stay nearer average. Rainfall generally rather below average in central, southern & and eastern areas but the NW in particular probably rather closer to average. Frosts and snow will be generally near average.

Sea temperatures seem likely to be rather above average for most coastal areas especially in the SE but becoming about average around north western coasts later on with soil temperatures generally above average for most parts initially but nearer average in the north after mid month and soil moisture near average for most western & northern areas, though rather below average across SE and eastern England.

http://www.wiseweather.co.uk/id18.html