Tropical Storm 01 M

[Iceberg]

I am an arch sceptic with these storms and don't think they are tropical, below shows the wind distribution is got the classic look of stronger east section, trailing front to the south with winds and lack of strong wind in the center.

The difference here is that winds are developing in the NW wrap around as well, whether this is enough to say it's warm core it debatable, it's not enough for me I would like to see a more central warm core in 925, 950 and 850 temps.

[Coast]

Bad weather in Italy: strong wind on Sardinia

(WAPA) - A vortex centered between the Balearic Islands and Sardinia and moving North-North-east will lead to a strong reinforcement of the winds on the island.

According to available forecasts, the Italian Department of Civil Defense has issued a notice of adverse weather conditions expected for today Monday, November 7, from morning till the following 12-18 hours, and will bring strong Southern winds becoming stronger and stormy on Western areas.

Storms are expected on exposed coasts too.

The Civil Defense Department will follow the developments while in contact with the prefectures, regions and local structures of civil protection.

http://www.avionews....mante=index.php

Its going to cause some turbulence for flyers!

• AirportAlghero Airport, Italy (LIEA)
  

• Report timeIssued on the 8th of the month, at 11:20 UTC
  

• WindsWind from 190°(south) at 19 knots with gusts up to 30 knots
  

• VisibilityVisibility is 10km (6 statute miles) or more
  

• CloudsFew clouds at 1,800 feet (500 meter)
  
• Scattered clouds at 2,500 feet (800 meter)
  

• TemperaturesTemperature 17°C (63°F), dew point 11°C (52°F)
  

• PressureQNH 1015 hPa (29.97 inHg)
  

• AirportCosta Smeralda Airport, Italy (LIEO)
  

• Report timeIssued on the 8th of the month, at 11:20 UTC
  

• WindsCalm winds
  

• VisibilityVisibility is 10km (6 statute miles) or more
  

• CloudsScattered clouds at 5,500 feet (1.700 meter)
  

• TemperaturesTemperature 18°C (64°F), dew point 10°C (50°F)
  

• PressureQNH 1017 hPa (30.03 inHg)
  

[Coast]

Some nice satellite pictures becoming available, just odd to see where this cyclone is located!

[Somerset Squall]

Satellite estimates indicated 01M probably reached a peak of 45kts today. 01M appears to be moving northwards now and is not far off the coast of Southern France.

[summer blizzard]

I am an arch sceptic with these storms and don't think they are tropical, below shows the wind distribution is got the classic look of stronger east section, trailing front to the south with winds and lack of strong wind in the center.

The difference here is that winds are developing in the NW wrap around as well, whether this is enough to say it's warm core it debatable, it's not enough for me I would like to see a more central warm core in 925, 950 and 850 temps.

It's a tough call however given that previous systems in the Mediteranian have been found to have warm cores with worse satellite presentation, i am inclined to say that this is either a Sub-Tropical or Tropical Storm.

It is not too surprising to me really as the Mediteranian generally does have low shear and an upper high over it with the enclosed shallow basin provided warm sea temperatures. I shall certainly be on the lookout for more of these.

[Iceberg]

It's a tough call however given that previous systems in the Mediteranian have been found to have warm cores with worse satellite presentation, i am inclined to say that this is either a Sub-Tropical or Tropical Storm.

It is not too surprising to me really as the Mediteranian generally does have low shear and an upper high over it with the enclosed shallow basin provided warm sea temperatures. I shall certainly be on the lookout for more of these.

Is is a tough call and i am glad there are no right or wrong answers !

For me we've seen these kind of systems develop in the med even with SST's below 20C which look very tropical in nature but in noway could be, instead of the driver being the surface energy the driver is the up/down column temp differential.

Anyway regardless what it is I do enjoy these kind of storms.

[Somerset Squall]

01M is still lingering near the coast:

[kold weather]

Totally disagree Iceberg, if these aren't topical then NONE of the N.Atlantic storms are tropical either. The lapse rates is key and your right its a *different* type of developmental driver as say the deep tropical storms but they are still IMO purely tropical at sea surface temps of 20C, I tend to find much below that and they become more hybrid rather then purely tropical.

These types tend to form often from upper lows and broad gyres, you see it very often in the Atlantic (there are probably 3-4 such systems every season) and I see no reason why a Med system would be any different from an Atlantic system. I think there has now been enough research out there that has concluded that it is indeed probable that tropical cyclones do form in the Med, hence why the Med basin has been offically opened and now has classifications.

As for the wind distrution, i wouldn't use that as a main reason not for thinking its tropical because systems that form from upper lows tend to nearly always carry a very subtropical look to their windfields and it normally takes a good 3-4 days for the inner core to finally become totally dominant from the upper gyre.

So IMO it IS tropical but not in the deep tropics style, instead a TC driven by temperature differences with non-tropical origins, hence perhaps the slightly unusual presentation with regards to the wind field.

[Iceberg]

As I say Kold I don't think there is a right or wrong, Dr Masters below has a good point about the SST's where are below any SST's that the NHC have ever called a tropical storm.

I think the point about Polar lows which also derive energy from the air column temp differential is valid, when the energy is driven in this fashion it can't be tropical in nature, otherwise a Polar Low would be/could be a tropical storm.

Good discussion though !

Cheers

Ice

"Unusual tropical storm-like low forms off coast of France

An unusual hybrid low pressure system has formed in the Mediterranean Sea, about 100 miles south of the coast of France. The low began as an extratropical storm named "Rolf", but has stalled out over the relatively warm waters of the Mediterranean over the past two days, and has acquired tropical characteristics. Heavy thunderstorms have built over the northeast portion of the low, and the storm has a symmetric spiral shape with a cloud-free center, like a tropical storm. The Navy is calling this system Invest 99L. The National Hurricane Center is not responsible for the Mediterranean Sea, so they are not issuing any products for 99L. NOAA's Satellite and Information Service (NESDIS) is giving 99L a tropical classification based on its satellite presentation, with winds in the 40 - 45 mph range. French radar shows heavy rains from 99L are beginning to affect Southeast France and the island of Corsica. The Lion Buoy, located about 100 miles to the west of the center of 99L, recorded sustained winds of tropical storm force, 40 mph, at 00 UTC yesterday. Water temperatures at the buoy were 17°C (63°F), far below the 26°C threshold usually needed to sustain a tropical storm. The coldest waters I've seen a tropical storm form in were 22°C during Hurricane Epsilon of 2005. I doubt that NHC would name this system if they did have responsibility for the Mediterranean, due to the cold water temperatures. "

[Coast]

Not a Tropical Storm in France

Nov 9, 2011; 10:04 PM ET

I heard someone say this is a tropical system...What are they even looking at? Sure, the effects of this for southern France and into western Italy will be some gusty winds and rain, but this is far from a tropical system moving in. Last I saw, you need water temperatures much warmer in the Mediterranean Sea before you can see tropical formation on this.

This could be like a subtropical storm, which no one really understands right, and I can't say I do, but it's basically a tropical storm without all the tropical characteristics. This to me seemed like a diurnally driven storm, which would imply more of a cold cored storm as it spun around and formed more. Right now, I can safely say whatever is left is very weak and struggling to stay together, but southern France into western Italy will have some stronger winds and some rain, but nothing that uncommon.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/euro/story/57523/not-a-tropical-storm-in-france.asp

[kold weather]

From most other forums I've seen most mets have gone along with the view that this is a hybrid tropical storm. Its one that probably makes the most sense to me, its very similar to alot of the systems in the N.Atlantic sucvh as Grace, Vince, Epsilon, etc.

Its interesting to note that this storm was located underneath a local warm spot in the Med:

http://i44.tinypic.com/6yz6s8.gif

Temps were around 19-21C at the time of the upgrade on the 6-7th, so whilst still low temps I remember Grace formed in very similar temperatures in 2009 and its not much cooler then what we saw with Epsilon. Those temperatures are a solid 2-3C above average. I'm afraid the days where people think we need 25-26C for 'tropical development' are very long gone. IMO what we had here is a upper low with cold upper temperatures, which stalled in the med for several days and became tropical under marginal temperatures thanks to the higher lapse rates then you'd nortmally expect and the convection was able to blow up and wrap around the low level circulation. Complex!

I personally think it started non-tropical, became briefly totally tropical (on the 6th early hours of the 7th) then started to become a hyybrid system on the 7-8th). System was 100% warm cored judging by all the reports, its just wether one thinks you can have a purely tropical system at 18-20C....I think with low enough upper atmospheric conditions 18C is about my lower limit...anything below that and I'd be surprised if you can get anything deep enough going. Obviously drop far enough down and your goinna go into Polar Low territory.

[Coast]

Some updated models that I tired posting earlier re: warm core versus cold core and some other current data -

Current track. Looks like it started off in warmer SST's but gets into a colder section as it heads North:

http://moe.met.fsu.e...fcst/index.html

[Somerset Squall]

Bye bye 01M, the storm has rapidly dissipated over land this afternoon.

[summer blizzard]

Where did it hit and were there any observations??

In regards to tropical or not, i think that the pure definition of a tropical entity should be whether or not it has a symmetrical warm core. Even lowish sea surface temperatures can still provide energy even if the intital kick was from the pressure differential.

Confirmed warm core and sustained winds of 78KT. Models actually forecast this one apparently.