Todays Rain For Sw

[shedhead]

00 runs had the rain well across the Channel by now and the latest 06GFS maintains that timing. Shows the heaviest rain moving north across E Devon, Somerset and W Dorset in the next few hours, yet the radar is having none of it. Poor modelling considering the time frame involved?

Edited November 10, 2011 by shedhead

[Nick F]

With subtle waves running north along the slow-moving cold front across central/western areas, it's IMO one of those sitautions when it can be difficult to forecast exactly where, when and how much rain will fall. Last nights BBC forecast was predicting heavy rain for SW England and SE Wales during this morning's rush hour which has failed to materialise and the MetO have now withdrawn their yellow alerts for the SW as a result. The MetO have got it wrong at short range, but one of those situations that's difficult to forecast accurately.

Clearly the latest GFS run (06z) is a bit out with preciptn amounts - even 3hrs ahead! Precip chart and radar at 09z for comparison:

Models are obviously not handling rainfall amounts and distrubtion too well along this front - which is causing a bit of headache for forecasters.

There is a pulse of heavy rain along a wave in the front further south across southern Brittany, though it may not reach the SW of England.

[SteveB]

I was wondering what happened to the rain, even on the local BBC forecast this morning it was showing heavy rain over us at 8AM until lunch time, but clearly that's not the case.

[shedhead]

I just Sky+'ed Carol Kirkwoods 10am forecast on BBC News24 and she said 'the forecast has changed across the last hour' - so clearly something went quite badly wrong here.

[TonyH]

Indeed was not expecting sunshine today. Also very mild springlike.

[Andy Bown]

The front must be sat from approx the IOW through E.Dorset/W.Hampshire and up through Wiltshire because there is a narrow finger of rain

with a few sharp bursts - raining gently here at the moment but also bright.