11th November 2011 - Storm/convective Forecast Discussion And Reports

[Jane Louise]

Just thought I'd mention this from estofex even if there's a slight chance it's worth being aware.

Nothing from ukasf yet, maybe something in the morning!

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General thunderstorm areas ...

At 21 Z [10th Nov], a mature low is placed SW of Ireland. A pronounced warm conveyor belt aims towards UK and Ireland and affects that area during the daytime hours. Convective activity is sporadic beneath an ill defined dry slot .

We expect a gradual increase in DMC probabilities during the morning hours onwards, as cold air at 500 hPa overspreads the warm sector and a cold front moves in from the west/southwest. The main problem seems to be a marginal BL moisture quality , so main CAPE signals right now are confined to the offshore areas and SW-UK. LL shear is enhanced with better LL CAPE offshore and along the coasts, so wie don't want to rule out an isolated tornado event. Current confidence in a more robust severe risk is limited by very low-end CAPE, so we did not issue a level 1 for that event. Strong wind gusts and marginal hail accompany stronger thunderstorms. The activity slowly diminishes during the evening hours onwards.

http://www.estofex.org/

[Coast]

At 21 Z [10th Nov], a mature low is placed SW of Ireland.

At this rate it will be collecting it's pension by the time it gets here!!!!

UKASF still have no forecast , I'll go and have a look at the pretty pictures and see what they all say.

[Coast]

OK, I've had a quick look at what everybody else has and here is a round up:

21st OWS have the low coming into the SW and Ireland during the morning and maybe bringing some storms:

Their version of the UKMO chart sows it in broadly the same place, but with more coverage:

Mid Level aviation weather has some action coming up the Channel:

GFS KO index has an area moving into the spine of the UK as the day progresses

Convective cloud wraps right up into Scotland through the middle of the country later:

CAPE hits the SW after dark:

Nearest SkewT for that time:

HiRLAM shear:

Lapse rates:

A bit of rain as it moves West to East:

Scotland and Ireland in for a buffeting?

GFS broadly similar for today with it coming at a slightly more West than South West direction. Still has Scotland and Ireland in its sights:

[Nick F]

A few heavy showers tonight around coasts of Wales and SW England following the rain band moving N and E, otherwise looks like a fairly lengthy period of little convective activity coming up.

[Jane Louise]

I thought it may probably come to nothing much but thought I may mention it just in case lol wishful thinking. :lol:

[Coast]

I thought it may probably come to nothing much but thought I may mention it just in case lol wishful thinking. :lol:

Not very inspiring true, but when you've got all this cold and snow in November anyway......

[Jane Louise]

Hmmm, I did have a heavy shower of rain just now, but that's about it. Roll on storm season 2012 I say. :lol: