Tropical Cyclone 02 S

[Somerset Squall]

Another tropical cyclone has formed, this time from invest 98S. 02S is located roughly midway between Diego Garcia and Le Reunion. Intensity is 35kts. Some strengthening is expected as the cyclone moves westwards along the northern periphery of a subtropical steering ridge towards Madagascar. In the long term, shear is expected to increase, inducing weakening beyond 48hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

02S succumbed to shear quicker than expected. Convection left the LLC exposed last night, and as it made no comeback, JTWC declared 02S a remnant low this morning. The LLC is still well defined in satellite imagery, but as shear is expected to increase further, regeneration is not expected.