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The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

A.J

By A.J
in Spring Weather Discussion

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LadyEv06 Explorer

LadyEv06

Posted
  • Location: Sutton-in-Ashfield, Notts, NG17, 163m ASL
  • Location: Sutton-in-Ashfield, Notts, NG17, 163m ASL
Posted

My area now has sleet forecast for 3am and light snow for 6am. Earlier it was clear skies all night and tomorrow!

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snow freak Aficionado

snow freak

Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
Posted

All i want is 6 hours of heavy snow and for it to stick around for 3 days. Then I'll be happy for the rest of the winter. C'mon mother nature, 3 days out of 365 isn't a lot to ask for, is it?

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Arctic Hare Accomplished

Arctic Hare

Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
Posted
I have a feeling this winter is going to end up like that of 2006/7 and will be non existent in terms of snow and cold weather.

You don't say where you live, so it's impossible to know whether you had this... but though 2006/07 wasn't a good winter at all for snow, in these parts at least we did have one very snowy weekend in February 2007. On that occasion the snow was forecast to change back to rain by the Saturday night, but in fact stayed as snow for another 24 hours!

As for tonight's system... I have a nasty feeling that it's not going to be as intense a system as had been thought, and that the precipitation from it will be rather light -- too light to change from rain to snow. I'm just north of the amber/yellow border on the MetO warnings, but if I were a betting hare I'd put my money on a downgrade rather than an upgrade later today. I hope I'm wrong, of course!

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Author
Posted

Just got back for a spot of lunch before I head out again....just been scanning through the past few pages, must admit I had a good chuckle with the panicked posts whilst the met office were updating their warnings :lol: .....I believe, as I posted earlier, than model forecasting goes out of the window at this time frame, it's simply a case of now casting....I see Ian is patrolling the board posting with his unique brand of mild ramping as only Ian can, speak to the hand, my friend, because the ears aren't listening :winky:

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Hooverman Newbie

Hooverman

Posted
  • Location: Acton Green - Worcestershire
  • Location: Acton Green - Worcestershire
Posted (edited)

Up early then tomorrow just to see how the low pressure develops - but i can see me not getting into work :mellow:

I can see the Malverns from my house so it will be good to see snow on them again - The Midlands mini alps :rofl:

Edited by Hooverman
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Terminal Moraine Veteran

Terminal Moraine

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District. 290 mts a.s.l.
Posted

All i want is 6 hours of heavy snow and for it to stick around for 3 days. Then I'll be happy for the rest of the winter. C'mon mother nature, 3 days out of 365 isn't a lot to ask for, is it?

It would be handy if you could put your location into your avatar, Snowfreak, then if you do get any snow we'll know where it's snowing.

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PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted

Midlands today seem to know about as much as we do. It didn't look brillant anyway north of Birmingham though. Time to concentrate on the potential of a streamer setting up tommorow and Saturday should become the main focus for us north of Birmingham.

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pippamum888 Newbie

pippamum888

Posted
  • Location: West Hunsbury, Northampton
  • Location: West Hunsbury, Northampton
Posted

I can't cope with this! Now the warnings are back up! I think they are playing with us. Is there a name for this kind of rollercoaster - forecast watching - snow madness? I think I'm a snowcoholic! Completely hooked! :smilz38:

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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted

Just woke up, read this thread, looked at NAE output, put head on desk and weeped a few tears :rofl: Nah not really - but i could've !

This happens pretty much every single time, could and did spot this happening a mile off. Still, GFS holds a little hope, and still just about in the warning area for MetO. I'll still be radar watching :)

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Barbmac Enthusiast

Barbmac

Posted
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Severe storms.
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
Posted

Cornflake Girl! Hooverman! *waves* Hey you two! :D Yes I think Other Half's journey to work tomorrow might be problematic too. Even if the snow isn't as widespread as was first thought, it usually still catches us on this hill due to the altitude. So.... also radar-watching! Have noted that at times of high demand the Met Office website (beta) tends to pull their radar which is really annoying as I prefer it to some of the other sites in terms of its colours. I notice the warning doesn't specify the amount of snowfall expected, usually they say 5-10 cm or something, they're being annoyingly vague.

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Paceyboy Explorer

Paceyboy

Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
Posted

The cradle isobars of the storm, 996mb and 1000mb(especially 1000mb isobar, the southern cradle isobar) are slightly further north than the earlier GFS as current observations show on http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/observations (click pressure)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess= (move to 09hrs on pressure)

When compared to the GFS 06z positioning. I know this is only what 20/30miles further north at present but this difference could make have a an affect later on for the storm track and how much precipitation we get later today and friday in the midlands.

Who knows, might not really matter?

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Snowmoon Rookie

Snowmoon

Posted
  • Location: Malvern, Worcs 840ft/256m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Malvern, Worcs 840ft/256m ASL
Posted (edited)

Cornflake Girl! Hooverman! *waves* Hey you two! :D

Can I join in the Malvernian group hug?! :air_kiss:

I've noticed a lot in recent months that precip has typically managed to pass by to the north or south of the Malvern Hills and avoid them somehow, but maybe it will be different overnight. No counting chickens though, I think we'll just have to wait and see what happens. If Cornflake Girl announces tomorrow that she's had a snow frolic, then all will be well with the world!! :lol:

Edited by Snowmoon
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Barbmac Enthusiast

Barbmac

Posted
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Severe storms.
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
Posted

Can I join in the Malvernian group hug?! :air_kiss:

But of course! :D

I've noticed a lot in recent months that precip has typically managed to pass by to the north or south of the Malvern Hills and avoid them somehow, but maybe it will be different overnight. No counting chickens though, I think we'll just have to wait and see what happens overnight. If Cornflake Girl announces tomorrow that she's had a snow frolic, then all will be well with the world!! :lol:

This. So fed up of seeing any precipitation skirt around the Hills. We've been positively arid here over summer/autumn, only recently seen a little more rain and even then I'd say we're way under for the annual average.

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swipe Rookie

swipe

Posted
  • Location: North Shropshire, 200m above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Hot dry summers and very mild winters
  • Location: North Shropshire, 200m above sea level
Posted

Looks like North of Shrewsbury is going to miss out. Thank god for that. I hate shovelling snow.

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Arctic Hare Accomplished

Arctic Hare

Posted
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and sun in winter; warm and bright otherwise; not a big storm fan
  • Location: Bewdley, Worcs; 90m asl
Posted

MetO regional text forecasts updated, and tonight's outlook is now as follows.

W Mids: Dry with some clear spells this evening but cloud increasing from the west. Some persistent rain arriving by midnight, turning to snow by dawn possibly giving small accumulations in places. Minimum temperature -1 °C.

E Mids: Any showers clearing, then dry for a time but becoming increasingly cloudy with rain developing across most parts late evening/overnight. Then later in the night rain is likely to turn to sleet or snow across southern and western parts. Minimum temperature 1 °C.

I'm not too keen on "turning to snow by dawn" -- sunrise isn't till after 8 am at this time of year, so taken at face value that W Mids forecast would mean up to eight hours of rain before any snow appeared. I know in reality it's less precise than that, but I think it's going to be a long night for anyone staying up radar/lamp-post watching.

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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted (edited)

GFS and NAE 12z are pretty similar to 06z. As expected, should be pretty much nailed by now. Looks like leicester and other cities nearbye will receiving a dusting and little else.

Edited by kmanmx
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Isolated Frost Rising Star

Isolated Frost

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

I'm not too keen on "turning to snow by dawn" -- sunrise isn't till after 8 am at this time of year, so taken at face value that W Mids forecast would mean up to eight hours of rain before any snow appeared. I know in reality it's less precise than that, but I think it's going to be a long night for anyone staying up radar/lamp-post watching.

NMM says rain for most until 2-4am, when we get some sleet/snow in the w midlands, before turning into a snowfest between 5-9am.

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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted

NMM says rain for most until 2-4am, when we get some sleet/snow in the w midlands, before turning into a snowfest between 5-9am.

NMM is by far the best compared to NAE, GFS. Still need it another 20 to 50miles north though for where me and a few others are.

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Costa Del Fal Experienced

Costa Del Fal

Posted
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - Heavy Snow Summer - Hot with Night time Thunderstorms
  • Location: Truro, Cornwall
Posted

Things are not as good as last night but at least the GFS is better than last night. I would say no snow north than about Stafford, moderate snow in the central mids and possibly heavy snow for the SW mids in particular. Significant accumulations unlikely but a good 2-5cm possible south of about Wolverhampton I'd say.

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Luke Newbie

Luke

Posted
  • Location: Halesowen, West Midlands
  • Location: Halesowen, West Midlands
Posted

Things are not as good as last night but at least the GFS is better than last night. I would say no snow north than about Stafford, moderate snow in the central mids and possibly heavy snow for the SW mids in particular. Significant accumulations unlikely but a good 2-5cm possible south of about Wolverhampton I'd say.

As long as it snows and there is a bit left of the ground in the morning, then I'm happy :D

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Isolated Frost Rising Star

Isolated Frost

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: cold
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted

NMM is by far the best compared to NAE, GFS. Still need it another 20 to 50miles north though for where me and a few others are.

Last go really before the event kicks off, so it's a very important NMM run coming up... instincts say it will go further south, but i'm hoping it travels 50+ miles north!

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kmanmx Aficionado

kmanmx

Posted
  • Location: South Leicestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow. Cold
  • Location: South Leicestershire
Posted

Last go really before the event kicks off, so it's a very important NMM run coming up... instincts say it will go further south, but i'm hoping it travels 50+ miles north!

Exactley. When is the 12z NMM out ?

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Paceyboy Explorer

Paceyboy

Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
Posted (edited)

Could this be our low pressure centre?

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/ go to pressure

If it is then much further north, can anyone with more knowledge tell me please?

Edit: Sorry its probably not looking at current rainfall radars.

Edited by Paceyboy
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