The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

[Cheese Rice]

I think the midlands look prime position regardless of any changes, I don't expect it to be as far south as the 18Z gfs. Ofc plenty of changes to come as is evident by the fluctuations of the northern most extent on the NAE.

[stewfox]

what a massive change.

Interesting video though...

http://www.bbc.co.uk...atures/16165125

2pm thats a life time ago for this thing

At present Im too far north for anything, lets hope it shift north again

[Zakos]

Still all of tommorow to change.

With such a dramatic change, there is no reason that it could not revert back to the original forecast.

constant dramatic changes inspire more confidence than gradual but continual downgrades.

Ensembles are coming out, some support the op, but the majority do NOT have the PPN so far south. Many of them go for heavy snow event in the midlands

[NorthantsSnow]

Precipitation is heading fairly north.. not all is lost, the precip only needs to be 50miles east and 50miles north to give at least some of us a good covering according to NMM.

Indeed. In situations like this it will go right to the wire, so we shouldn't be too disheartened by the GFS output. I've known it to change right up to the actual event in setups like this.

[kmanmx]

Indeed. In situations like this it will go right to the wire, so we shouldn't be too disheartened by the GFS output. I've known it to change right up to the actual event in setups like this.

Yeah as it is on the 18z NMM Northampton should atleast get some rain, and therefor the potential for snow.. ligther stuff is just about clipping into Leicestershire too. Really very little in it at this stage.

Certainly a downgrade from the 12z, but i've seen more downgrades and upgrades of fridays storm in the last 7 days than i can count on both hands so like you say it may be a case of nowcasting and radar watching.

Also is it just me or has the storm slowed down ? it looks like the precip is arriving 6hours later than previously, which isn't good.

Edited December 14, 2011 by kmanmx

[The Wolf]

Oh dear. I cant believe how much it has changed tonight. It now looks like we'll end up with

nothing tomorrow night when it all looked so good earlier. Hopefully it will look more positive

tomorrow but I'm not holding my breath.

[cold stoke]

i wish it was next week end and not this one that would be good

[weirpig]

Just had a quick look at the assembles not as bad as i thought quite a few members going against the low heading south, a lot of chopping a changing to come over the next 24 hours

[kmanmx]

Just had a quick look at the assembles not as bad as i thought quite a few members going against the low heading south, a lot of chopping a changing to come over the next 24 hours

Yeah.. definitely not lost all potential yet.

[kold weather]

The fact so much can change in 6hrs should tell you that so much can VERY easily change back again. I remember Feb 2007 where the models disagreed and kept changing right upto the lows arrival and suspect this will be a similar solution.

FWIW the GFs/NMM look too WAY too fast in pulling the frontal system through, its all gone by 06z nearly, previous runs have had it lasting a solid 6-9hrs longer, so that may well change back on the 00z tomorrow again.

[syed2878]

Just went on to the local bbc website and had a look they have lite snow for birmingham on friday it was updated at 21.20pm today

[Jayfromcardiff]

Message for andy leic; will it snow in cardiff mate? hope all of you in the midlands get a good dumping of snow

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looking questionable whether the precipitation will get as far north as the south Midlands now- let alone my location. Not what I wanted to see on the 18z- I was personally hoping for a slight shift north.

[A.J]

Nick, just pm'd you matey

[hollisk]

Just watched BBC news Channel and their graphics are still going for snow Birmingham as predicted!

[PolarWarsaw]

I doubt they'l update the forecast until the 0z is out OR until people will be getting up in the morning sometime betweeen 6-7.30.

[Arctic Hare]

So, on the 18z it does appear to be a bit of a case of NAE against the world! I can remember times when NAE stuck to its guns and was proved right (I have a feeling there was one in Jan 2010) but against that, there was the "blizzard that wasn't" which was shoved hundreds of miles south at quite short notice. Being realistic our chances look to be diminishing, but you never know!

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think the issue with this low is that it hasn't interacted with the jet to the extent that was being advertised earlier in the week, it's now looking like a fairly shallow wave like feature- if it could just develop more it would recurve slightly further north and ensure a good proportion of us were in the snow risk area.

[Cheese Rice]

BBC forecast carbon copy of 18Z Nae, northward extent still undecided.

[A.J]

Well no doubt there are twists & turns to come....Some folks will be happy, some will be sad, and just in case this weather system ends up in the Straits of Gibraltar, then fear not, the remedy is at hand.....

Night all

[Smarty 81]

I'm hoping we got some snow here in the cotswolds on friday, haven't seen the midlands forcast since this morning but that forcast tended to show my neck of the woods doing quite well from this setup.

I do know that some parts yesterday on higher elevations had some of the white stuff...

[Cheshire Freeze]

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

The last frame of that satellite link 00.00 hours suggests that the Atlantic LP in question is a lot further north than the GFS places it for the same time frame. Could be nothing, but a straw to clutch at, at least.

[Costa Del Fal]

The GFS 18z ensembles here on NW are interesting. For Worcestershire for example, almost all ensemble members give some sort of Precip tomorrow night. The Op was one of very few to give pretty much nothing.

Even for Kent the Op comes at below the Mean precip for tomorrow night.

Edited December 15, 2011 by Blizzards

[feb1991blizzard]

http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html

The last frame of that satellite link 00.00 hours suggests that the Atlantic LP in question is a lot further north than the GFS places it for the same time frame. Could be nothing, but a straw to clutch at, at least.

What do you think about tommorow, you will be getting some snow i am very confident, unfortunately it wont reach me though after seeing the GFS and NAE 18, anyway enough about me as im in the wrong thread but it looked further south on the BBC 12 midnight update but curiously looked like the area with snow risk was also further West and you were well in the firing line..

[Cheshire Freeze]

What do you think about tommorow, you will be getting some snow i am very confident, unfortunately it wont reach me though after seeing the GFS and NAE 18, anyway enough about me as im in the wrong thread but it looked further south on the BBC 12 midnight update but curiously looked like the area with snow risk was also further West and you were well in the firing line..

I don't think the global models have a handle on this, I'm thinking it's a 'can't see the wood for the trees' scenario. From latest satellite info it's obvious the wave is at a higher latitude than the GFS and ECM have placed it for the same timeframe. I think the NAE looks a good match for what we are seeing on the satellite at the minute. All subject to change however.