Southern England Regional Discussion Thread

[john pike]

sorry buzzit see where the confusion was :blush:

Edited January 25, 2012 by john pike

[john pike]

watch this

http://modeles.meteo...16-0-204.png?18

sorry had to do this

Edited January 25, 2012 by john pike

[Buzzit]

No was my fault John - i caused the confusion

And BLUNT : I will eat a hat of your choosing as long as it is a reasonable choice

In any case the NAE is progging a flurry for Friday night so i almost feel safe by default

[john pike]

i saw the friday chart as well

the weather forecasts will need quick updates tomorrow

if correct

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=&ext=1&y=&run=18&lat=50.08097165991903&lon=0.8490566037735867&runpara=0

london ensembles look good

snow risk increases as we get to the 30th onwards

[Buzzit]

london ensembles look good

snow risk increases as we get to the 30th onwards

yes and that has been true of even the bad runs of the last few days - always showing some degree of snow risk at all times on the ensemble output for the 29th January onwards.

[yamkin]

I've just read some posts on here which are basically ???? The trend is already in motion to the East. JP & I spend a lot of hours researching different model trends. At present, GFS, ECM and UKMO are ALL pointing towards a much colder outlook.

The trend is what you should be looking out for. JP is posting charts showing different scenarios at times, but the trend to colder conditions is still there.

[Buzzit]

Yamkin I am waiting for your first council / meto warning of the year !! I dont thinkit will be too far away

[shivering]

I think we have been waiting for you yamkin

[yamkin]

Yamkin I am waiting for your first council / meto warning of the year !! I dont thinkit will be too far away

Buzzit, Croydon Council are aware of a much colder outlook, but the MetO are now sitting on the fence which is not unusual. Remember this though, MetO's paying customers receive incredible info from the MetO guru's with a dedicated hotline as well.

Before the week is out, I am very confident the MetO will be releasing an urgent memo to the Croydon Council and I will go into RAMP MODE

[Buzzit]

Before the week is out, I am very confident the MetO will be releasing an urgent memo to the Croydon Council and I will go into RAMP MODE

Thats what I figured also knowing about the 31 day ECM... by the way I got married at Oaks Farm so Shirley always holds a special place in my heart

[yamkin]

Thats what I figured also knowing about the 31 day ECM... by the way I got married at Oaks Farm so Shirley always holds a special place in my heart

Did you know that the Oaks area is one of the coldest places when there is a frost or snows.

[john pike]

now your just bragging

[Buzzit]

Did you know that the Oaks area is one of the coldest places when there is a frost or snows.

No I didnt but I cannot say I am not suprised considering the landscape and heights around it. I can imagine it as a pooling cold hole... I guess you get the reverse at summertime.. I got married in middle of August and it was absolutely boiling with the sun out all day (not a spainsh plume day) Should of got a round of golf in beforehand haha

Edited January 26, 2012 by Buzzit

[john pike]

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/graphe_ens3.php?x=306&ext=1&y=141&run=18&ville=Londres&runpara=0&col=1

these ensembles are cold

good to see precipitation showing as well

[Buzzit]

If you look at the ensemble mean run on run over the last few days there is literally very little difference in the mean, sure individual runs have been all over the place but the mean has been exceptionally consistent of late - another reason I am banking on cold

[john mac]

Well more pieces are falling into place with each set of runs that come. I have to say, I really do feel that we could be on the verge of something better than last winter

[Jayces]

Depression set in again this morning as all the models change their mind

As commented by one poster and I agree, amazing how in this day and age with all the computing power they have they still can't forecast accurately more then a couple of days away.

People rely on long range forecasts to plan things yet they can't be relied on, how does that work? I guess there are times when conditions will pan out in a certain way if the criteria is met and is easier to model, it's the pattern change I suspect that is giving all the models a headache at the moment.

No idea if it's going to be dry and mild, wet and mild, dry and cold or wet and cold on Monday!

[Coast]

Depression set in again this morning as all the models change their mind

I'm not sure why people in here should be depressed. On the majority of GFS runs in the last few days there has been snow shown at some point or another and ECM and UKMO have been flirting with the idea of cold and possible snow for a while. Would you not take these as a for instance (not suggesting this will happen and in the places shown, just a representative example)

It's all about trends and without being too specific, I think that the possibilities are increasing for something that many people in the SE (and specifically here) will enjoy!!!

[Gowon]

I quite prefer the GFS this morning, it doesn't look as cold as last nights run but it delivers more snow. I'm not too sure what to make of the UKMO but it looks okay and the ECM...well, I'm going to ignore it and pretend I never saw it :lol:

[Coast]

I have no idea what model or references these guys use, but they have been pretty good over the last couple of years I've been monitoring their charts:

Snowfall for 6 hrs ending Mon 30 Jan at 6pm GMT

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

[Nights King]

Could see a few flakes around today in heavier showers in central and western areas even to lower levels!

bbc forecast said snow could settle over 200m saldy Im at work in bristol

[gottolovethisweather]

Oh my.

I've just tried to read through some of the multitude of posts since yesterday afternoon and I can't make any sense out of what you lot expect.

An easterly is 95% nailed, whether it will deliver snow is certainly not nailed. It will get progressively colder over the coming days and I see no reason to suspect temperatures of 13c to 14c being reported, even over the mediterranean type climate of Southampton.

The usual places will prone to the most snow as and when it arrives, but for now enjoy todays wintry showers, these mostly in the west of the region and tomorrow is also expected to by potentially snowy too. Then I expect a settled phase before the true easterly kicks in.

Soon, it will be time for another thread before the GFS 6z has fully rolled out.

Cheers

gottolovethisweather

Edited January 26, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Lauren]

God what nightmare in the MOD thread i have a headache trying to read all the posts and understand them is near impossible.To be honest i havent got a clue whats going to happen .It must be time for a vodka lol

Don't worry Marie. I hardly venture in there, it's all a bit scary. I stick to here and model banter thread to give me the jist of things!

[Coast]

A brand shiny new one here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/72340-southern-england-regional-discussion-thread/