Chance Of Tropical Cyclone Formation In The Coming Days.

[Konstantinos]

General topic in which we will discuss the chance of tropical cyclone formation (or hurricane - typhoon) in the coming days.

Between Africa and Madagascar:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=92S&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

Pacific Ocean, northeast of Australia:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=austeast&sname=91P&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

[Konstantinos]

North Australia:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=austeast&sname=95P&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

[Konstantinos]

Southwest Indian Ocean: Invest Area 92S:

http://tropic.ssec.w...00000000&loop=0

Edited February 3, 2012 by Konstantinos

[Konstantinos]

Near Cancun:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=90L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

And in Pacific Ocean:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=seastpac&sname=96P&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

[Konstantinos]

Central Indian Ocean:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=indian&sname=98S&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

[Konstantinos]

Eastern Indian Ocean:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=austwest&sname=99S&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

[Konstantinos]

Indian Ocean:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=austwest&sname=93S&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

East of Australia:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=austeast&sname=94P&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

[Somerset Squall]

94P doesn't look like it will develop much, the South Pacific basin runs the real risk of the neing the quietest season on record if something doesn't form soon!

93S in the southeast Indian Ocean looks much more promising, I expect JTWC to issue a tropical cyclone formation alert soon.

[Konstantinos]

North Australia. Tropical Low 1 (96P):

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=austwest&sname=96P&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

IDD20150

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology

Northern Territory

Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this

warning.

PRIORITY

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4

Issued at 4:44 am CST [3:14 am WST] on Tuesday 13 March 2012

A Cyclone WATCH continues for a developing tropical low for coastal and island

communities from Cape Hotham to Kalumburu, including Darwin and the Tiwi

Islands.

At 3:30 am CST [2:00 am WST] a Tropical Low was estimated to be

260 kilometres west of Cape Fourcroy and

365 kilometres west of Darwin and

moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour parallel to the coast.

There is the possibility of a cyclone developing but GALES are not expected in

coastal areas within the next 24 hours, however gales could develop as early as

Wednesday morning.

The Territory Controller advises communities under Watch that now is the time

to put together your emergency kit, clear your yards and balconies, and

commence home shelter preparations.

Residents of Darwin and Rural Areas are advised that if you DO NOT have

accommodation constructed to the Building Code or are unsure of your present

accommodation you should determine which public emergency shelter to use. This

advice is issued to allow you sufficient time in which to take the necessary

precautions before winds reach a dangerous level.

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at

present. Communities between Kalumburu and NT Border should listen for the next

advice.

Details of Tropical Low at 3:30 am CST [2:00 am WST]:

.Centre located near...... 11.8 degrees South 127.6 degrees East

.Location accuracy........ within 110 kilometres

.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour

.Central pressure......... 1000 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,

particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 11:00 am CST Tuesday 13 March [9:30 am WST

Tuesday 13 March].

This advice is available on telephone NT-

1300 659 211

and WA-

1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDD20150.txt

Northwest Australia (95S):

http://tropic.ssec.w...00000000&loop=0

Edited March 12, 2012 by Konstantinos

[Konstantinos]

North Australia, Tropical Low 1. Centre located near 17 degrees South and 141 degrees East.

[Konstantinos]

Northeast Atlantic. 92L

http://tropic.ssec.w...<!--NoParse2-->

Edited May 18, 2012 by Konstantinos

[Somerset Squall]

Think you mean 92E in the East Pacific mate . This system is certainly taking it's sweet time to organise but models are quite aggressive with developing this system.

[Somerset Squall]

We now have Invest 93L off the Carolinas. Looks to be gaining tropical characteristics over the warm waters of the gulf stream. Convection is persisting over the LLC, and if this persists for a bit longer then NHC may upgrade to a tropical depression/storm. NHC give a MEDIUM chance, 50%, of this occuring in the next 48hrs. The Atlantic seems insistant on trying to get a named storm before the official start of season (June 1st). The East Pacific made it, can the Atlantic?

Edited May 19, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

93L became TS Alberto.

92E in the East Pacific is finally becoming better organised. NHC give a high chance, 60%, of 92E becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48hrs.

[Konstantinos]

94W in west pacific:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=94W&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

[Konstantinos]

94 L in Caribbean. 20% Chance of hurricane formation the next 48 hours:

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

840 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERNCARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ISASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER ANDTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINEDCIRCULATION CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTEDTO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURINGTHE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURSAS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THESOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF ASUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODINGARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERNFLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKFOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONALINFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUEDBY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCALWEATHER OFFICE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.&&HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BEFOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.$$FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERGNNNN<a

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

http://tropic.ssec.w...00000000&loop=0

Edited May 24, 2012 by Konstantinos

[Konstantinos]

94 L in Caribbean. 40% (now) Chance of hurricane formation the next 48 hours:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[Konstantinos]

West Pacific, Invest Area 90W:

http://tropic.ssec.w...00000000&loop=0

Edited June 8, 2012 by Konstantinos

[Konstantinos]

93L, Northeast Pacific. 60 % chance of tropical hurricane formation during the next 48 hours.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=eastpac&sname=93E&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0

[Konstantinos]

94E, 95E in Northeast Pacific.

94E THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

LOCATED ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH OF THE BORDER OF GUATEMALA AND EL

SALVADOR HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THIS

LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING

THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD

AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING

A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa....><br /><br />http://tropic.ssec.w...00000000&loop=0

95E THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES

SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE

IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS

A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa....s<br /><br />http://tropic.ssec.w...00000000&loop=0

Edited June 13, 2012 by Konstantinos

[Konstantinos]

95E. 10% now.

[Konstantinos]

Invest Area 95 E northeast Pacific. 40% in the next 48 hours:

Invest Area 95 L in North Atlantic. 30 % in the next 48 hours:

Edited June 18, 2012 by Konstantinos

[Konstantinos]

Invest Area 95W. West Pacific: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=westpac&sname=95W&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0

[Konstantinos]

10% Chance in Atlantic

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL

DEPRESSION DEBBY...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.

1. A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED HALFWAY BETWEEN THE WESTCOAST OF AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZEDSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT..IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TOOCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMINGA TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THENEXT 48 HOURS.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

Edited June 27, 2012 by Konstantinos