The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS rather similar but NAE has pushed the snow and colder uppers a little west.

I think a Snow to rain event is very likely here now but i think most should be grateful a spell of snow is very likely now and a good covering too. Yes a thaw may occur but surely after what has been a relatively diabolical winter so far I think there is no excuse for complaining. More snow than rain/sleet looks likely anyway especially from about Wolverhampton Eastwards id say.

GFS 12z really brings in the cold again next week so more chances in the future are not far away!

Edited February 3, 2012 by Blizzards

[MKN]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16872418

THE UK WEATHER BATTLEGROUND!

From the bbc.

GFS rather similar but NAE has pushed the snow and colder uppers a little west.

I think a Snow to rain event is very likely here now but i think most should be grateful a spell of snow is very likely now and a good covering too. Yes a thaw may occur but surely after what has been a relatively diabolical winter so far I think there is no excuse for complaining.

GFS 12z really brings in the cold again next week so more chances in the future are not far away!

personally id rather have 5cms in daylight so you could go out and enjoy it than 10cms overnight only to wake up to big puddles, there may end up being an area where this is the case, atm my neck of the woods could well be the dodgy place lol, hopefully more shifts westwards

[Costa Del Fal]

NMM 12Z is very similar to its 06z overall. To me it seems like Shropshire and Herefordshire may particularly struggle to see decent snow although will for a time. The snow seems to start to last longer from about Staffordshire/South Staffordshire/Worcestershire and Eastwards. Here the cold seems to be digging in for longer. However eventually a little rain and sleet is on the backedge.

[MKN]

NMM 12Z is very similar to its 06z overall. To me it seems like Shropshire and Herefordshire may particularly struggle to see decent snow although will for a time. The snow seems to start to last longer from about Staffordshire/South Staffordshire/Worcestershire and Eastwards. Here the cold seems to be digging in for longer. However eventually a little rain and sleet is on the backedge.

Thanks for that, id pay for the service but everytime i do the weather goes into mild south westerly mode and i wouldnt like to curse everyone again lol

[NorthantsSnow]

From an IMBY perspective I do like the NMM. Yes it might be quick to move through the region but the upshot of that is (for us in Northants at least) there is no back edge rain to wash it all away.

So for those purely selfish reasons, I do hope the NMM has this one nailed.

[kold weather]

I think the NMM is good for the east Midlands, ok the W.Midlands does see probavbly less snow than on the NAE but for the east it stays as snow the whole way throughout.

Also higher amounts on the NMM than the NAE, with somewhere between 12-15cms over the E.Midlands.

[Cheese Rice]

*Sigh* I guess i'll have to post this screenshot for the 10th time to prove my point..

That event turned out to be all rain apart from the Pennines, so I wouldn't trust anything they say.

lol I remember you been pretty p*ssed off at the time. Haven't been able to forgive the BBC since I see.

It was great for here though 10-15cm of snow lying for two weeks.

Anyway I totally see your concern. 850s aren't exactly ideal for low level snow, uppers of -1 is fine here but on low ground it makes things pretty marginal. However we have the Isotherm on our side..

Surface cold also playing a factor. If the Midlands are seeing really cold temps at night and day then its a good indicator you've under a pool of surface cold. For example here is seeing temps of 0.c by day, -6 by night.

So yes you'll be fine.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[FreezeManiac]

Where would you say I am in the midlands? Likely to turn back to rain for me?

[Arctic Hare]

Where would you say I am in the midlands? Likely to turn back to rain for me?

I'm not as knowledgeable as many others, but I suspect that for Worcs it will be a snow-to-rain event. That said, it's so close that even your 115 m of altitude may make a noticeable difference.

[FreezeManiac]

I'm not as knowledgeable as many others, but I suspect that for Worcs it will be a snow-to-rain event. That said, it's so close that even your 115 m of altitude may make a noticeable difference.

Yea probs, I'm just into gloucestershire actually - if you look at gloucestershire I'm that little outcrop on the right of it = near Chipping Campden if you've heard of it

[MKN]

I think the NMM is good for the east Midlands, ok the W.Midlands does see probavbly less snow than on the NAE but for the east it stays as snow the whole way throughout.

Also higher amounts on the NMM than the NAE, with somewhere between 12-15cms over the E.Midlands.

what about the middle midlands? hinckleys on the border, officially in leicestershire, however 1minute drive away im in warwickshire west midlands.

you can see my problem lol

[MKN]

Just to add the bbc just upgraded the westward extent of snow on its 5pm update compared to earlier, snow everywhere east of birmingham for longer. Everyone will see on the 6pm news

[Beasterly]

Just to add the bbc just upgraded the westward extent of snow on its 5pm update compared to earlier, snow everywhere east of birmingham for longer. Everyone will see on the 6pm news

I noticed that too! They showed areas further west in snow.

[NorthantsSnow]

what about the middle midlands? hinckleys on the border, officially in leicestershire, however 1minute drive away im in warwickshire west midlands.

you can see my problem lol

Hi ST. The NMM shows moderate/heavy precipitation over your area for several hours on Saturday from 5pm though to around midnight. You would be looking at around 12cm IF it was snow all the way. However the model indicates it could fall as sleet. :wacko:

[fourseasons]

Hi ST. The NMM shows moderate/heavy precipitation over your area for several hours on Saturday from 5pm though to around midnight. You would be looking at around 12cm IF it was snow all the way. However the model indicates it could fall as sleet. :wacko:

Coventry and Warwickshire is really borderline then...

[FreezeManiac]

Hi ST. The NMM shows moderate/heavy precipitation over your area for several hours on Saturday from 5pm though to around midnight. You would be looking at around 12cm IF it was snow all the way. However the model indicates it could fall as sleet. :wacko:

Any chance you could tell me about my location?

[Bolton67]

Well looking at some of the posts in here, can i say things look a little better?

Edit: for Northants?

Edited February 3, 2012 by lancs_northants

[picog]

It looks like the warm front is coming in slower than they originally thought, so that might be good for us poor snow-lovers in the extreme west of the midlands!

[MKN]

Hi ST. The NMM shows moderate/heavy precipitation over your area for several hours on Saturday from 5pm though to around midnight. You would be looking at around 12cm IF it was snow all the way. However the model indicates it could fall as sleet. :wacko:

Thanks i think a slight westward shift would make a big difference to my area and the ones immediately to the west. If we can avoid a final hour or so of rain it would make a big difference to the snow thats on the ground sunday morning.

[Nick L]

Looks like I will now be staying in Cannock tomorrow night (not risking going back to Reading with the snow). So I'm hoping for even more shifts west!

[NorthantsSnow]

Any chance you could tell me about my location?

Okay, hour-by-hour forecast for Evesham according to the NMM:

Sat 16.00: light sleet (0.44mm)

Sat 17.00: moderate sleet (1.01mm)

Sat 18.00: moderate sleet (1.48mm)

Sat 19.00: heavy icy rain (2.53mm)

Sat 20.00: moderate icy rain (1.6mm)

Sat 21.00: moderate icy rain (1.8mm)

Sat 22.00: moderate icy rain (1.78mm)

Sat 23.00: moderate icy rain (0.86mm)

-------------------------------------------------

TOTAL PRECIPITATION: 11.5mm

As you can see, looking very marginal where you are. Temps look a little too high to me, especially later on on Saturday. 2.4C by 11pm according to this model which is far too high. The best thing that could happen for you is it moving through a bit quicker. Otherwise I could see it being snow turning to rain.

[FreezeManiac]

Okay, hour-by-hour forecast for Evesham according to the NMM:

Sat 16.00: light sleet (0.44mm)

Sat 17.00: moderate sleet (1.01mm)

Sat 18.00: moderate sleet (1.48mm)

Sat 19.00: heavy icy rain (2.53mm)

Sat 20.00: moderate icy rain (1.6mm)

Sat 21.00: moderate icy rain (1.8mm)

Sat 22.00: moderate icy rain (1.78mm)

Sat 23.00: moderate icy rain (0.86mm)

-------------------------------------------------

TOTAL PRECIPITATION: 11.5mm

As you can see, looking very marginal where you are. Temps look a little too high to me, especially later on on Saturday. 2.4C by 11pm according to this model which is far too high. The best thing that could happen for you is it moving through a bit quicker. Otherwise I could see it being snow turning to rain.

Yea oh well

[NorthantsSnow]

Yea oh well

Sorry mate, wish I had better news.

You never know though. The models are not always correct. I've seen it before where sleet/icy rain is forecast and it has fallen as snow. It happened loads during that cold spell in Feb 2009.

[Costa Del Fal]

Okay, hour-by-hour forecast for Evesham according to the NMM:

Sat 16.00: light sleet (0.44mm)

Sat 17.00: moderate sleet (1.01mm)

Sat 18.00: moderate sleet (1.48mm)

Sat 19.00: heavy icy rain (2.53mm)

Sat 20.00: moderate icy rain (1.6mm)

Sat 21.00: moderate icy rain (1.8mm)

Sat 22.00: moderate icy rain (1.78mm)

Sat 23.00: moderate icy rain (0.86mm)

-------------------------------------------------

TOTAL PRECIPITATION: 11.5mm

As you can see, looking very marginal where you are. Temps look a little too high to me, especially later on on Saturday. 2.4C by 11pm according to this model which is far too high. The best thing that could happen for you is it moving through a bit quicker. Otherwise I could see it being snow turning to rain.

NMM to me suggests some snow over Evesham to me for a time although not as long as others of course???

[FreezeManiac]

Sorry mate, wish I had better news.

You never know though. The models are not always correct. I've seen it before where sleet/icy rain is forecast and it has fallen as snow. It happened loads during that cold spell in Feb 2009.

Yea it'll be what it will be