Atlantic Hurricane/Invest Thread 2012/2013

[Somerset Squall]

Looks pretty impressive at the moment I must admit, but the window for favourable conditions looks small. As you mention Mezza, SAL is a big player further west, along with marginal sea temps. 98L may have a shot at becoming a tropical depression over the next day or so as there is some pronounced turning as some decent convection at present, however it may struggle thereafter, at least until it nears the Eastern Caribbean.

[summer blizzard]

Short track recurve.. Next!

 

I'm being a bit harsh here actually, it bodes well for the long trackers.

[summer blizzard]

Almost TD4, if it survives it could get to warmer water and hit the east.

[be cause]

A major dust storm over the tropical Atlantic at the moment could cool the SST's enough to kill the current Hurricane season before it starts  !

[Coast]

I've dug this snippet of info out about the 2013 season in general:

 

Facts: 

 

The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. The National Weather Service defines a hurricane as "an intense tropical weather system with well-defined circulation and sustained winds of 74 mph (64 knots) or higher."

 

Hurricanes are rated according to intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. The 1-5 scale estimates potential property damage. A Category 3 or higher is considered a major hurricane. 

 

The National Hurricane Center advises Preparedness:

 

A hurricane watch indicates the possibility that a region could experience hurricane conditions within 48 hours.

A hurricane warning indicates that tropical-storm-force winds of at least 74 mph are expected within 36 hours.

 

Predictions: 

 

April 10, 2013 - Forecasters William Gray and Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University release their 2013 hurricane season prediction. They predict 18 named storms and nine hurricanes, four of them major.

 

May 23, 2013 - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasts an active or extremely active hurricane season, predicting that there is a 70 percent chance of having 13 to 20 named storms, of which seven to 11 could become hurricanes, including three to six major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

 

2013 Atlantic Storm Names:

 

Tropical Storm Andrea 

June 5 - Tropical Storm Andrea develops in the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Florida. 

June 6 - Makes landfall in the Big Bend region of Florida. 

June 7 - Downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone.

 

Tropical Storm Barry 

June 19 - Tropical Storm Barry forms in the southern Gulf of Mexico. 

June 20 - Weakens to a tropical depression and then later a post-tropical cyclone.

 

Tropical Storm Chantal 

July 7 - Tropical Storm Chantal develops 865 miles east of Barbados. 

July 10 - Dissipates into a tropical wave about 230 miles east-southeast of Jamaica.

 

Tropical Storm Dorian 

July 24 - Tropical Storm Dorian develops in far eastern Atlantic ocean. 

July 27 - Weakens to a tropical wave.

 

Erin

Fernand

Gabrielle

Humberto

Ingrid

Jerry

Karen

Lorenzo

Melissa

Nestor

Olga

Pablo

Rebekah

Sebastien

Tanya

Van

Wendy

 

 

 

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/21/us/2013-atlantic-hurricane-season-fast-facts

[Summer Sun]

So far Its been nice and quite this season but an active season is still expected

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/23634165

[summer blizzard]

Love how they say quiet when its being above average.

[mezzacyclone]

GFS & NAVGEM are toying with a development leaving Yucatan early next weekend tracking North through the GOM

GFS has a low end TS for Miss-Ala-West Fl and NAV borderline cat1 high end TS for Louisiana.

ECM shows little to no activity but has thrown a wobbler so far this season with just about everything in the Atlantic (barry chan & Dori) but also latest in not picking up Utor crossing the N Phillipines as we speak?

So all eyes on the Sthrn GOM next weekend for potential as an alternative to the busy fish in the EPAC 

[Coast]

 

NOAA trims forecast for busy hurricane season

 

Federal forecasters are slightly reducing their prediction for a busy Atlantic hurricane season. The Federal forecasters are slightly reducing their prediction for a busy Atlantic hurricane season. NOAA updated its hurricane season forecast Thursday, slightly cutting back the number of hurricanes they expect this year to somewhere between six and nine. updated its hurricane season forecast Thursday, slightly cutting back the number of hurricanes they expect this year to somewhere between six and nine. 

 

WASHINGTON (AP) -- This Atlantic hurricane season may not be quite as busy as federal forecasters once thought, but they still warn of an unusually active and potentially dangerous few months to come. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its hurricane season forecast Thursday, trimming back the number of hurricanes they expect this year to between six and nine. That's a couple less than they predicted back in May. The forecast calls for three to five of those hurricanes to be major, with winds greater than 110 mph. The updated forecast also predicts 13 to 19 named storms this year. Both of those predictions are just one less forecast three months ago.

 

The chance that 2013 will be busier than normal remains at 70 percent. A normal year has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major storms. "Make no bones about it, those ranges indicate a lot of activity still to come," said lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md. "We're coming to the peak of hurricane season now."

 

Hurricane season starts in June and runs until the end of November, but peak hurricane season runs from mid-August to mid-October. So far, there have been four named storms, the last one being Tropical Storm Dorian. Four storms in June and July is more than normal, when usually there are just one or two, Bell said.

 

Bell is predicting a busier-than-normal season because of larger climate patterns that have been in place since about 1995. Atlantic waters are warmer than normal, wind patterns are just right, and there has been more rain in West Africa. This fits with a larger 25-to-40-year cycle of hurricane activity that meteorologists have seen over the decades. Bell slightly reduced the earlier forecast because a La Nina weather event -- the cooling of the central Pacific that acts as the flip side of El Nino -- isn't happening and that usually increases hurricane activity. While the Atlantic is as much as half a degree Fahrenheit warmer than normal, it's not as warm as some of the busier years, nor is it predicted to be, Bell said.

 

The forecasts don't include where storms might land, if any place. Despite the formation of more hurricanes recently, the last time a major hurricane made landfall in the United States was Wilma in 2005. That seven-and-a-half-year stretch is the longest on record. It's also the last time any size hurricane made a direct hit on Florida, which is also a record, said National Hurricane Center spokesman Dennis Feltgen.

 

But just because a storm is not technically classified major with 111 mph winds or more, doesn't mean it can't do lots of damage. Sandy is evidence of that, Bell said. The storm caused hundreds of miles of flooding, killing 147 people and causing $50 billion in damage.

 

 

http://www.wtop.com/884/3415788/NOAA-trims-forecast-for-busy-hurricane-season

[summer blizzard]

20% chance of development in 48-120 hours. Recon are due in at 9pm tomorrow.

[summer blizzard]

 

At 30% in 48-120 hours however RECON was cancelled today. Scheduled tomorrow.

[summer blizzard]

Thought i'd let you see a great chart i found which shows the anomaly over the sea level pressure, Very useful...

 

 

So the good news is that as you'd expect in a Nina ish base state, we have lower than average pressure, it seems however that nothing can make it to the Caribbean in any kind of good shape.

 

The nearest we come is this wave coming off Africa.

[Somerset Squall]

92L up to 30% chance of TC formation in the next 48hrs and 40% in the next 5 days.

 

93L (just off the coast of Africa) is up to 40% risk in next 48hrs and 50% for the next 5 days. Conditions look favourable initially for this one before it heads into cooler waters further west. If it can get itself developed now it my have a chance of flourishing.

[Coast]

 

 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

200 AM EDT WED AUG 14 2013

 

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

 

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING

DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM

CENTRAL AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD TO JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA. 

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF

THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES

NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND

SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BE MORE MARGINAL

FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THE

END OF THE WEEK.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF

BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM

CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE

NEXT 5 DAYS.

 

2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE

ISLANDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW

HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL

DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A

MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW WILL BE MOVING TOWARD

COOLER WATER AND DRIER AIR...WHICH COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.  THIS

SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE

ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

 

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[summer blizzard]

Looks like 93L is now TD5.

[summer blizzard]

92L and 93L both cherry, 60% and 70% respectively.

 

92L...

 

 

 

 

 

 

93L...

 

 

 

 

[mezzacyclone]

92L: Evidence of westerly winds as it begins to show signs of tightening up?
Clicky
Noticed the axis wave moving ahead of the system which signified the end of Dorian`s (or may have been Chantal`s?) overall development in the latter stages & never truly got going failing to stack with lack of the low & mid levels aligning?
Quite impressive already no less with outflow signs although looks are very deceiving as we have seen so far this season but will Yucatan landfall, if the path allows?, leave the disturbance intact?
GOM shear threats may restrict growth but 29-30°C sst`s on the positive side could yield a low end Cat raising concerns in Southern US states, Recon tomorrow for a better picture but will we have TS status by then or will 93L get their first?

[Sainsbo]

Latest update on 92L from the NHC:

"SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHERDISTURBANCE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOMELESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOWMOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT OF THISSYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER LAND HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY...HOWEVERTHERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVESOVER THE GULF OF MEXICO"

[Coast]

 

 

Thunderstorm activity has decreased over the last few hours, but the conditions seem marginally conducive for a depression or storm to form over the next 2-3 days. In fact, the NHC puts potential for development at 70% over the next 48 hours. However, the storm will be passing over the Yucatan Peninsula later today, so this should help to disrupt any development that may occur in the next few hours. After that, it will emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico, and the models are still split on any potential landfall thereafter. It's important to note that none of the models intensify this into a hurricane. Most predict only a mid range tropical storm. We will know more later this afternoon after the Air Force flies into the storm to see if there is a low level circulation or not. That will also make the model runs more reliable

 

 

 

http://www.fox44.com/news/tracking-tropics-eyes-remain-invest-92l-western-caribbean-0

[crikey]

Hi ..

 

I have noticed on the MET OFFICE global satellite picture.

The ITCW has changed dramatically this past 2 days and is now coalescing and spawning a mass of tropical lows across the ITCZ in all ocean basins and land areas near the equator. The image looks feisty

 

Looks like an active phase underway..

 

I suppose the NH is approaching peak cyclone/hurricane/typhoon season..

 

August--September

 

Here are a few notes and a snap of the present situation

 

latest post on home page

 

http://weathercycles.wordpress.com/

 

[summer blizzard]

Aye. Gfs also hinting at another cape verde wave as well.

[Somerset Squall]

The wave about to exit Africa is worth watching, poor Erin has moistened the environment ahead for it and punched a hole in the SAL...

[summer blizzard]

Still nothing of note in the models bar the Dorian/Erin repeat in a few days however we do have some eye candy in FI... (A recurve)

 

[crikey]

Great to see someone on 'wikopedia'   is updating the current season regularly..

 

Even an entry today

 

A nice synopsois and historical account of the 2013 season here

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season

 

Who would have thought l would bookmark wikopedia for up to date information on hurricanes

 

from wikopedia

 

Current storm information

 

As of 5 a.m. AST (0900 UTC) August 17, Tropical Storm Erin is located within 30 nautical miles of

 WikiMiniAtlas

18°54′N 35°36′W / 18.9°N 35.6°W / 18.9; -35.6 (Erin), about 790 miles (1,270 km) west-northwest of the Cape Verde islands. Maximum sustained winds are 35 knots (40 mph, 65 km/h), with stronger gusts. Minimum central pressure is 1006 millibars (hPa; 29.71 InHg), and the system is moving west-northwest at 13 knots (15 mph, 24 km/h). Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center of Erin.

 

 

• [*]The NHC's

latest Public Advisory on Tropical Storm Erin

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/

 

 

• [*]The NHC's

latest Forecast Discussion on Tropical Storm Erin

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/

[Somerset Squall]

The Atlantic really is a bore fest at the moment, much more interesting in the Pacific lol. I'm sure things will change soon but there is shear shear and more shear at the moment, not to mention the dry air.