Tropical Cyclone 15 S

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 90S has become a tropical cyclone, with an intensity of 35kts. 15S has deep, central convection with some formative banding features wrapping into the LLC. The cyclone is located east of Madagascar and around 500 miles southwest of the island of Diego Garcia. 15S is moving southwestwards along the northwestern periphery of subtropical steering ridge to the southeast. The ridge will eventually be broken down by an advancing trough which will send 15S polewards into increasing shear and decreasing sea temps. Until this happens, 15S is located in low shear, warm sea temps and good outflow, favouring intensification. 15S is of no theat to land.

Edited February 29, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Konstantinos]

Edited March 1, 2012 by Konstantinos

[Somerset Squall]

Strong subsidence has taken it's toll on 15S and the cyclone has weakened to 30kts. Convection has decreased and the banding noted yesterday has dissapeared. JTWC have issued their last advisory, noting that there is a small chance for redevelopment as the environment remains marginal.