Tropical Cylone Daphne

[J07]

Named recently by Nadi RSMC. It was previously TD19F. Looks like it will miss populated islands, which is consistent with model predictions over the last few days.

It will enter Wellington's AOR fairly soon, Nadi currently have it as a TC down to 35S which is quite a long way. However, CYRIL did maintain TC status to roughly that latitude.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A8 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI

Apr 02/0254 UTC 2012 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE DAPHNE CENTRE 995HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 172.7E

AT 020100 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND

PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT

18 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED

AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION INCREASED

WITH PRIMARY BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN

UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION. OUTFLOW RESTRICTED TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM

CENTRE BUT REMAINS GOOD ELSEWHERE. THE SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW TO

MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS BY

NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN WIND. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.6 WRAP

GIVING DT=3.0, MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT THUS YIELDING

T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND

30 DEGREES CELCIUS.

MOST GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT WITH FURTHER

DEVELOPMENT.

FORECASTS :

AT 12 HRS VALID AT 021300 UTC 22.4S 176.7E MOV SE AT 23 KT WITH 45 KT

CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 24 HRS VALID AT 030100 UTC 26.5S 179.6W MOV SE AT 23 KT WITH 50 KT

CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :

AT 36 HRS VALID AT 031300 UTC 30.6S 175.8W MOV SE AT 16 KT WITH 50 KT

CLOSE TO CENTRE

AT 48 HRS VALID AT 040100 UTC 33.9S 173.0W MOV SE AT 14 KT WITH 35 KT

CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON DAPHNE WILL BE ISSUED

AROUND 020830 UTC.

[Somerset Squall]

I guess the quick track speeds of Daphne will allow it to remain tropical quite a long way south. This is certainly what happened with Cyril. Daphne saves the season from being the stand alone quietest on record, instead it currently ties with 2003-04/2008-09. Daphne doesn't really have time to strengthen significantly before it exits the tropics.

Edited April 2, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Daphne has managed to strengthen to 50kts. There were even hints of an eye earlier, but this has since dissapeared. The cyclone is fast approaching colder waters however, and Daphne should begin to weaken soon as it zips southeastwards.

[J07]

The pressure fell to 981hPa earlier when it passed over Raoul Island. Latest warning, now only gale:

GALE WARNING 059

This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC

Tropical Cyclone DAPHNE [986hPa] centre was located near 29.8 South 174.5 West at 030600 UTC.

Position Poor.

Repeat position 29.8S 174.5W at 030600 UTC.

Cyclone is moving eastsoutheast 35 knots.

Expect sustained winds of 45 knots close to the centre easing to 40 knots by 031800 UTC.

Expect winds over 33 knots within 180 nautical miles of centre in the southeast quadrant and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the sector from south through west to northwest and within 240 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to east.

Forecast position near 33.4S 170.9W at 031800 UTC.

This warning cancels and replaces warning 052.

Issued at 7:15pm Tuesday 3 Apr 2012

[Konstantinos]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=seastpac&sname=18P&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000&loop=0