Atlantic Storms - Spring 2012

[Zenarcher]

Wind gusting to 30mph here and its about the same for Western Ireland. Pressure also starting to drop.

[Zenarcher]

Gusting to 50mph here now and its still going up. Pressure also dropping like a stone with very heavy rain at the moment.

Other places looking windy at the moment are Capel Curig in Northern Wales getting 40mph gusts and parts of Ireland are reporting 40mph gusts.

[Harps]

An impressive front passing over us at the moment, heaviest rain I've seen in months

[Liam J]

Very stormy night here - I was woken at least two times as the front was moving through. Very squally in nature with gusts of 50-55mph accompanied by intense rainfall lashing the house.

It's been ages since I've heard that sound and the wind howling

[Coast]

Things have just started to get going with a current pressure drop of 1.5mb/hr in Eastbourne and wind gusting to 27.7 mph and increasing. Looks like things could liven up a little more during the day.

Current maximums:

[Zenarcher]

As the low places itself over Northern Britain winds will be generally calm. Looking very windy tonight for Southern Ireland then windy for Wales and Southern England all day and night on Wednesday.

Highest gust here was 54mph.

Edited April 17, 2012 by weathermaster

[Zenarcher]

Gusting to 58mph on the far South of Ireland. Also gusts around 40 to 48mph are being recorded across Wales and Southern England. Expect the winds to increase in all these areas through this evening and overnight.

Edited April 17, 2012 by weathermaster

[Robbie Garrett]

Interesting post..

[Liam J]

Lively looking charts being churned out from the models, spring is certianly on hold until further notice

[Zenarcher]

Interesting post..

http://forum.netweat...00#entry2293209

Yes the models have been confident on a unsettled week next week and its mainly for the South who have experienced very little unsettled weather in the past while. As the ECM shows the 2 lows would bring plenty of rain for down South the actual wind speed isn't really looking that high due to the low not being tight and deep. Wind speeds for the South would hit around 30 to 40mph with 50 to 60mph gusts similar speeds to what we saw on Tuesday and Wednesday this week.

It does give us something to watch though for next week.

Edited April 19, 2012 by weathermaster

[Robbie Garrett]

A few Channel trackers this week. Some much needed rain, but not enough.

[Roger J Smith]

Rapidly developing low at 50N 24W has dropped 10 mbs overnight to 994 mbs, will reach near 970 mbs south of Ireland tomorrow and track close to Cornwall then northeast across the U.K.

This one is unusually deep for time of year, I checked the archives for 25-26 April on wetterzentrale (1871-2011) and could not find a similar low on this track. Pressures below 980 mbs were very infrequent anywhere south of 60N and only two really windy events could be seen during this time period (131 years). These were both westerlies, so where strong northeast winds hit (Ireland, northern UK) this will be almost exceptional.

Would suggest potential for 60 mph wind gusts north of track and possibly stronger near the Channel coasts from southerly direction there. Rainfall potential appears to be 30-60 mms. The low is relatively slow moving and there could be over 24 hours of rain, sometimes moderate to heavy. Flooding potential for Wales and parts of north-central England with this.

Quite cold at elevation so rain could become sleety and snow is likely on northern summits.

[Roger J Smith]

Major storm heading in for Wednesday

A low currently situated around 400 miles west-southwest of Ireland near 50N 24W is rapidly developing and will sweep into Ireland and southwest England tonight. It will rapidly overspread most other parts of the U.K. during the day on Wednesday and last through a good part of Thursday while gradually weakening.

Tonight, Ireland can expect the onset of strong southeast backing to northeast winds and heavy rainfalls, while Cornwall and Devon will see very strong southerly winds veering to moderate southwesterlies. For Ireland, expect winds in the 40-60 mph range at peak, for southwest England expect 50-75 mph at peak, which is likely to be around 0300-0600h for Plymouth and Exeter.

The strong northeast winds will howl all day in Ireland while the southerlies will sweep rapidly east across southeast England followed by southwest winds of slightly less force. For the Channel coasts, expect 50-70 mph at times, but inland more like 30-50 mph.

Along the track of the low (north Cornwall to Midlands to south Yorkshire) winds may be initially rather strong southeast and will then fall off to almost calm as the low centre approaches. But East Anglia can expect moderate southeast winds veering to light to moderate southerly. Meanwhile northern England, northwest Wales, and most of Scotland, will see strong east winds backing to northeast, generally in the 30-50 mph range but locally much stronger (particularly northwest Wales and other downsloping areas in western Wales). Gusts to 80-90 mph could develop in a few locations and over the Irish Sea about force 10.

Rainfalls with the storm will be widespread and quite heavy, many places will see drought-relieving amounts of 30-50 mms and a few spots could see 50-70 mms (Wales to Lincs and parts of the south central counties). There will be embedded thunderstorms and some hail as the occluding cold front sweeps rapidly through the south on Wednesday. Severe storm potential is perhaps not much higher than slight to moderate but borderline severe showers are more likely.

It will also be quite cold in the northern flanks of the storm and snow could fall above 500m in Wales and northwest England, and if the precip reaches far enough north, into higher parts of Scotland. Sleet may fall at times in the rain lower down. Temperatures near the occluding front will be 12-14 C briefly but it will then turn slightly colder in the southwest wrap-around.

Northwest France could see even stronger winds gusting to 80 mph and northeast France into Belgium have a greater risk of severe storms developing on Wednesday as the cold front will have better dynamics there.

I believe this will be the biggest weather event since the early Feb snowstorm, but it will affect almost all of Net-weather's coverage area.

[A.J]

Thanks Roger, quality analysis as always from you.....I'm certainly looking forward to some more active weather over the next 24-48 hours!

[Robbie Garrett]

I am wondering, could it keep it's intensity as 976 as it crosses the south east... probably not but you never know.

[Coast]

Incoming!!!!

It may be worse on the Northern flank for the UK as the Southern side seems to be buried down further into France and only just affecting the extreme South Coast (where I live?)

Max gusts:

We may just get away with it in general, with Scotland and only the extreme SE seeing the higher winds?

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looking forward to it..But on the other hand stay safe everybody its a monster!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Thought I would throw this one in there...If it is relevant..

[Uncle_Barty]

I recorded 975.9mb during last week's low, which is the lowest I have recorded in my records going back to 1996 for the summer half of the year (equinox-equinox). I think that may be "bettered" tomorrow.

[Coast]

GFS has those gusts licking the SE coast right over my head!

Here's a lot of pink and red to contemplate!

Seems to remain stationary for quite a while:

But dying down into the evening:

Centre down to 970 mb or 975 mb ??

[syed2878]

Hey guys do the ukmo have warning for this event tomorrow?

[Aaron]

They have a warning for southern England

[Robbie Garrett]

London & South East England

Rain

Issued at:1038 on Tue 24 Apr 2012

Valid from:0000 on Wed 25 Apr 2012

Valid to:2300 on Wed 25 Apr 2012

A band of heavy rain will move north across southern parts of England and Wales during Tuesday night, followed by heavy and locally thundery downpours for Wednesday. The rain will be accompanied by strong and gusty southeasterly winds. The public should be aware that heavy rain may lead to localised surface water flooding and poor driving conditions.

[Aaron]

I wonder who will be right? NAE shows rainfall figures in double digits for virtually everywhere in England with up to 38mm possible in northern England, and then over 50mm in the South West!!

[Zenarcher]

Using the 12z GFS run.

Looking at 12pm today the low is slightly deeper than what the 06z run had this happens often the models can sometimes under do the lows so it needs to be watched closely.

Wednesday Morning - A very wet and windy start. Were seeing a strong wind around 30 to 40mph across, England, Wales and Ireland mainly the coastal areas will see the high winds. Also heavy rain moving in across England.

Wednesday Afternoon - Wind generally staying the same across the country but Scotland will start to see the strong winds as well. The heavy band of rain starts to move up to Northern England.

Wednesday Night - Staying windy across the UK but winds getting stronger across the West coast of Scotland touching 50 to 60mph. Also pretty much wet for all areas.

Thursday Morning - Still a wet and windy outlook but things start to ease off slightly.

Thursday Afternoon - Heavy showers around wind still strong but continues to drop.

Edited April 24, 2012 by weathermaster