Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts, 26th June 2012>

[Mapantz]

Cloud cover has ruined it for the most part. Likely to be a thundery rain event .. again.

[Raidan]

Been keeping up to date with this possible event but I'm stuck on what to do,stay in the uk or still pop over to France?

[Hodgheg]

Seems to looks slightly better today, im quite confident i will see something here being in east yorkshire. Lovely warm day today, bring it on!

[Backtrack]

Noticed the CAPE & LI have been given a downgrade on the GFS, still the potential for some severe tstorms to kick off, more so in the SE, but potential elsewhere too - wouldn't expect this to upgrade either as the models move closer to the time, temperatures & dew points seem to be taking a knock on the head every run.

Edited June 26, 2012 by Backtrack

[Coast]

Been keeping up to date with this possible event but I'm stuck on what to do,stay in the uk or still pop over to France?

France has far more likelihood of storms at this point. It's down to whether you want to take a chance and book a crossing at the last minute or risk something happening here Wednesday/Thursday. If I was off, had time and inclination I'd be at the crossing terminal on Thursday morning first thing. But I'm anchored to an office chair on that day, so will be keeping fingers crossed and eyes on the skies!

[Deluxe]

Cloud cover has ruined it for the most part. Likely to be a thundery rain event .. again.

Whoops I blinked! Has the event happened?

[Backtrack]

France has far more likelihood of storms at this point. It's down to whether you want to take a chance and book a crossing at the last minute or risk something happening here Wednesday/Thursday. If I was off, had time and inclination I'd be at the crossing terminal on Thursday morning first thing. But I'm anchored to an office chair on that day, so will be keeping fingers crossed and eyes on the skies!

Do you have to book to drive across to France?

[Coast]

wouldn't expect this to upgrade either as the models move closer to the time, temperatures & dew points seem to be taking a knock on the head every run.

I'm still seeing 18°C for large swathes of the SE at 15z on Thursday, comparable with yesterdays output:

[Mapantz]

Anyone else chasing Wed/Thurs in the Dorset/Hamp. area

I'm already here, but i think it'll be a wasted journey for anyone else to head this way. Plume engagement just arrives too late, so it's likely to be no different to last Thursday's thundery rain event. One flash of lightning and a 140mm/h rainfall rate for a time.

[Coast]

Do you have to book to drive across to France?

Not if your car is special........

http://www.eurotunne...er-info/latest/

[Mapantz]

Whoops I blinked! Has the event happened?

No, but you only have to look at various model outputs to see that this will be a problem.

[Bobby]

I have to say I think the charts are looking better for my area (SW Britain generally) than I thought

Heavy possibly thundery rain moving into the SW/SE Wales on the NMM and spreading NE

NAE shows heavy maybe thundery rain starting to develop across SW England/S Wales Thursday morning

Edited June 26, 2012 by Barb-

[Eskimo]

I have to say I think the charts are looking better for my area (SW Britain generally) than I thought

Heavy possibly thundery rain moving into the SW/SE Wales on the NMM and spreading NE

NAE shows heavy maybe thundery rain developing across SW England/S Wales

From that angle it's looking much better!

[Backtrack]

I'm still seeing 18°C for large swathes of the SE at 15z on Thursday, comparable with yesterdays output:

Thinking the lack of sunshine is going to play a major part in those dewpoints, they will be good enough for storms, but here's hoping for an upgrade. Now if only there could be some strong sunshine during the afternoon, the fun & games could really begin.

Not if your car is special........

http://www.eurotunne...er-info/latest/

I don't own a car

Thanks for the link, will check that out now.

Edited June 26, 2012 by Backtrack

[Bobby]

From that angle it's looking much better!

It sure does.

A good amount of MUCAPE (little SBCAPE though) moving into the SW early Thursday

Not much CAPE showing on Thursday afternoon though surprisingly, compared to the GFS

There's a lot uncertainty showing in the models, so it's probably going to come down to radar watching and looking out of your window

The HIRLAM is looking tasty too.

So does the UKMO

Edited June 26, 2012 by Barb-

[Coast]

There's a lot uncertainty showing in the models, so it's probably going to come down to radar watching and looking out of your window

The HIRLAM is looking tasty too.

Yep, still early stages for HiRLAM, but it is trending towards the West slightly more than others:

I'd think I'd take this evolution as I think it could bring many more smiling faces on Thursday than the current GFS output, even if that meant sacrificing a bit of potential in the far East (so I'm not favouring anyone OK??!!!!! )

I'll be keen to see the Netweather NMM output as it comes into the time frame and hope it covers a broad front, East to West along the Channel and moves Northwards through the day

[Harry]

Current timings are rubbish!!!

If it sped up to arrive tomorrow night, grand! If it slowed down to arrive Thursday evening, grand...but Thursday day time is just pony!!!!

Concur with the chaps though...right ol' mish mash in the models...the FAX chart doesn't look too straight forward either...

[Supacell]

I have had 3 days of enjoyment watching this unfold and it would be the icing on a nice fat cream cake if the storms actually materialised. It would be somewhat disheartening if nothing happens though.

I'm still hopeful

[Harry]

I have had 3 days of enjoyment watching this unfold and it would be the icing on a nice fat cream cake if the storms actually materialised. It would be somewhat disheartening if nothing happens though.

I'm still hopeful

I am 99% certain that storms will materialise somewhere in the British Isles....where, when and whether they'll be severe in anyway is the mystery...but storms I think between 12z Weds to 18z Thurs are almost a certainty.

[mattyk1985]

How come the TT index is so low? I know its not that important but thought it would be a lot higher Wednesday and Thursday.

Edited June 26, 2012 by mattyk1985

[Hodgheg]

The bbc forecast just now said the cold front will move through thursday night.

[Harry]

Watch Rachel Mackley's forecast for BBC South East...either I'm getting thunder fever, or can anyone else see the phantom lightning bolts between 00:26 and 00:31???

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/me1

In any event, I'm not impressed by the latest BBC National and South East forecasts....they are skirting round Thursday's forecast with shameless ease (lol), highlighting IMO the lack of confidence at this stage.

[Darren Bown]

Nina Ridge at 1:30 pointed to thundery showers across N Midlands, Yorkshire and NW England tomorrow after an area of moderate/heavy rain moves northwards during the night. The south seemed to be dry, warm and humid. Nothing about any plumes or thunderyness for Thursday, seemed very all over the place on the map for Thursday.

[Darren Bown]

Heather Stott on BBC NW has put thunderstorms for Thursday and showers tomorrow for NW England.

[Hodgheg]

The look north east yorks forecast said heavy downpours later on thursday, so maybe looking good for here?