Tropical Storm Doksuri

[Somerset Squall]

The Seventh tropical cyclone of the West Pacific season has formed several hundred miles east of the Philippines. TS Doksuri has sustained winds of 35kts. Doksuri is expected to intensify as shear remains low and sea temps warm. The storm is heading west-northwestwards along the south side of a subtropical ridge, and this motion is expected to persist. Therefore, the Philippines need to closely watch Doksuri.

[Somerset Squall]

One for Cornishbrooksy to keep an eye on, latest forecast from JTWC has Doksuri making landfall in Hong Kong after brushing Luzon:

[cornishbrooksy]

Believe me im watching this one!

Looks like intensity will not be that big though...saying it will be a low tropical storm.

[knocker]

0600z analysis.

[Konstantinos]

A beautiful one.

[Somerset Squall]

Doksuri remains a minimal 35kt tropical storm today. Unexpected shear has taken it's toll on Doksuri, leaving the LLC partially exposed to the east of the main bulk of convection. Luzon is certainly getting hammered hard by some torrential rains currently however, which brings the risk of flooding. Track forecast has remained the same, but the intensity forecast from JTWC has come down a bit (now a peak of 50kts) due to the observed shear.

[Somerset Squall]

Doksuri weakened to a tropical depression overnight but has since restrengthened to storm status and is the strongest it's been so far; 50kts. Shear has eased but the dominant circulation is now thought to have reformed under the densest convection. Doksuri has had multiple vortices throughout it's lifetime and the previously dominant LLC can be seen rotating around the central dense overcast (where the dominant circulation is). This pattern of multiple circulations fighting for dominance will probably stop Doksuri from intensifying that much more, and the lack of poleward outflow would be another reason. However, as shear is now lower, Doksuri may intensify a little further before landfall. Track has shifted slightly southwards but only because of the reformation of the LLC to the southwest. Doksuri is now expected to pass just south of Hong Kong.

[Somerset Squall]

Doksuri has made landfall south of Hong Kong. The LLC is moving inland as the majority of the convection moves southwestwards over Hainan Island, displaced by another bout of shear. The shear, coupled with continued land interaction will dissipate Doksuri within the next 24hrs, but heavy rains may continue for a little longer than that.

Preliminary reports suggest 6 people died in the Philippines from Doksuri, primarily in flood related incidents.