Hurricane Fabio

[Konstantinos]

40%

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_epac.shtml

[Coast]

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM

LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE CHANGED

LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. CONDITIONS

APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE

NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH. THIS

SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL

CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Konstantinos]

50%

[Coast]

Sixth Pacific Storm May Form Off Mexico As Emilia Weakens

A low-pressure system 450 miles (720 kilometers) south of the Mexican resort of Manzanillo is better defined and has an 80 percent chance of becoming the sixth tropical cyclone of the Pacific season. The National Hurricane Center also said Emilia weakened to a Category 2 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale as it moves west-northwest over Pacific waters at 105 miles per hour about 720 miles southwest of Mexico’s Baja California.

The Miami-based center said in a 2 a.m. Pacific time advisory that Emilia poses no threat to land and is forecast to weaken further as it moves west. Tropical Storm Daniel will cross into the central Pacific later today as it churns west at 16 mph about 1,050 miles east-southeast of Hawaii, the NHC said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-11/sixth-pacific-storm-may-form-off-mexico-as-emilia-weakens.html

[Somerset Squall]

Invest 98E has become Tropical Storm Fabio, the sixth named storm of the East Pacific season. Sustained winds are currently 35kts. Fabio has some deep centralised convection with impressive banding features flanking the LLC. Fabio is forecast to become a hurricane, but not a strong as Daniel or Emilia. Fabio is also not expected to follow Daniel's and Emilia's path as the ridging to the north is expected to weaken. Instead, Fabio is expected to move west-northwestwards and then northwards into the weakness in the ridge. Fabio is not expected to impact land.

Interesting to note that Fabio is the earliest sixth named storm since 1990, an indicator of how active the 2012 East Pacific season has been so far.

[Somerset Squall]

Fabio has strengthened and is now a 70kt, cat 1 hurricane. Fabio has developed a large, rugged eye, surrounded by an irregular central dense overcast. Moderate shear is expected to prevent Fabio becoming a major hurricane but a little additional strengthening is expected as the cyclone heads westwards. The turn to the north has been delayed with each forecast, due to the ridge to the north being stronger than anticipated. The turn to the north will bring Fabio sharply over much colder water which should dissipate Fabio in around 5 days time.

[Somerset Squall]

Fabio has strengthened to 80kts. The eye is not very well defined however, and us fleeting in appearance in satellite imagery. Fabio may be near peak intensity as the hurricane is close to a sharp temperature gradient in sea temps, with much colder water lying beyond. NHC expect a peak of 85kts (cat 2) before Fabio reaches the colder water.

[Somerset Squall]

Fabio has developed a distinct eye and has been upgraded to a category two hurricane, with intensity now at 90kts. Fabio will move over cooler water later today which should initiate weakening.

[Somerset Squall]

Fabio is moving quickly northwards (well to the west of Baja California) over cold water. Intensity has fallen to 45kts, and Fabio is expected to weaken to a tropical depression this afternoon and to a remnant low tomorrow.

[Coast]

Fabio is expected to weaken to a tropical depression this afternoon and to a remnant low tomorrow.

and before your very eyes!!!!

Hurricane Fabio is weakening in the Pacific and is no longer a hurricane. Fabio's maximum sustained winds had decreased late Monday to near 65 mph (105 kph) with additional weakening forecast.

But the U.S. National Hurricane Center says swells generated by Fabio are spreading northward along the west coast of Mexico's Baja California peninsula and are expected to reach southern California by Monday night or Tuesday morning. The swells are likely to cause dangerous surf conditions and rip currents.

Fabio is centered about 700 miles (1126 kilometers) west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California and is moving west-northwest near 8 mph (13 kph).

http://www.nbc29.com...-in-the-pacific