Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[Harve]

For the sake of clarity GW the full aricle can be found here

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

why do we have so much angst sea ice extent has ebbed and flowed over time. Yes we are lowest on the satelite record and may well be lowest for many many years but this has come at the end of a long period of high solar activity. we are in a period of low solar activity which with lag in my opinion we will start to see benifical effects over the next 10/15 years or more. I will eat my hat if in five years time we are not in a better place.

As others said back in 2007.

This is no 'ebb and flow'. A gentle decline or a gentle climb wouldn't involve every year repeatedly approaching record low values.

[gagerg]

At least parts of the Arctic are shown to be thickening nicely

[Gray-Wolf]

Lets remember that this 'thickening' is to the base of ice folk will be applauding as 'old ice' come spring? As with this year once we see the FY ice in trouble we know that the older ice is now under attack?

We saw 3m+ of FY ice in the C.A. show a lot of blue in late June and then go before July was out. £m+ on the bottom of existing 2m ice looks impressive if you look at thickness alone but , come late July/Aug, that 2m is under the cosh and we saw upward of 3m of ice disappear through Aug along the north shore of Greenland (as picked up by many of the sea ice Blogs due to it's unprecedented nature occurring in the last stronghold of the ice?).

Rather than looking at 'new ice' form try and be more mindful as to where no ice is forming well beyond it's old re-freeze date and how this impacts on the ice forming (esp. the space still open around the Fram entrance) as open water is space for ice to fragment and flow into?

[quest4peace]

At least parts of the Arctic are shown to be thickening nicely

That map looks awfully like somebody has pulled a plug out and the thick ice is plunging away down it.

Edited November 10, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

The 'odd' thing is the bit on our side of beaufort?

That would normaly be drawing out into ' The Babies arm' toward the Russian side of the Basin but , as it is, it's still sat there as a 'lump'?

We know that the 'Babies Arm' ,in front of Bering, then gets melted out but to see no 'babies arm' at all this late in the season?

Is the Gyre not working or something?

[quest4peace]

Here's an interesting piece from October 28th mentions the gyre if anybody is interested.

http://www.universet...arctic-sea-ice/

NASA Satellite Sees Ghostly Remains of Vanishing Arctic Sea Ice

by Jason Major on October 28, 2012

34

Want to stay on top of all the space news? Follow @universetoday on Twitter

Sea ice swirls in ocean currents off the coast of Greenland (NASA/GSFC)

Spooky spectral swirls of last season’s sea ice drift in currents off the coast of eastern Greenland in this image from NASA’s Aqua satellite, acquired on October 17. Although sea ice in the Arctic will start forming again after September’s record low measurements, these ghostly wisps are likely made up of already-existing ice that has migrated south.

As global temperatures rise — both over land and in the ocean — thinner sea ice builds up during the Arctic winter and thus more of it melts during the summer, a pattern that will eventually lead to an ice-free Arctic if trends continue. The past several years saw sea ice in the Arctic below the 1979-2000 average, with this past September displaying the lowest volumes yet recorded.

The graph below, made from data modeled by the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington, show the chilling — or, perhaps, not-so-chilling — results of this century’s recent observations.

Along Greenland’s east coast, the Fram Strait serves as an expressway for sea ice moving out of the Arctic Ocean. The movement of ice through the strait used to be offset by the growth of ice in the Beaufort Gyre.

Until the late 1990s, ice would persist in the gyre for years, growing thicker and more resistant to melt. Since the start of the twenty-first century, however, ice has been less likely to survive its trip through the southern part of the Beaufort Gyre. As a result, less Arctic sea ice has been able to pile up and form multi-year ice.

Thin, free-drifting ice — as seen above — moves very easily with winds and currents.

Aqua is a NASA Earth Science satellite mission named for the large amount of information that the mission is collecting about the Earth’s water cycle, including evaporation from the oceans, water vapor in the atmosphere, clouds, precipitation, soil moisture, sea ice, land ice, and snow cover on the land and ice. Aqua was launched on May 4, 2002, and carries six Earth-observing instruments in a near-polar low-Earth orbit. MODIS, which acquired the image above, is a 36-band spectroradiometer that measures physical properties of the atmosphere, oceans and land.

Source: NASA Earth Observatory

NASA image courtesy Jeff Schmaltz, LANCE MODIS Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC. Graph by Jesse Allen based on modeled ice volume data from the Polar Science Center, University of Washington. Caption portions by Michon Scott with information from Ted Scambos, National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Read more: http://www.universet.../#ixzz2BugyGhhr

When the gyre was mentioned on here i wasn't truly sure what it actually was. Didn't realise it was a creator of the thick multiyear ice.

Edited November 11, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

Whem you read the descriptions of the ice in the Barentsz/Kara sea from the late 30's and 40's you also realise what a huge loss of ice has occured there to bring it to the point of being ice free over summer.

It always troubles me that many of the folk who do not see issues with the ice are only basing this on what they have seen of the Arctic and , for many, this has been since they first heard of the issues in 2007.

When you read ice descriptions from the old Whalers logs you start to get a feel of just what monumental changes haver occured since those days. Even if the little ice age had 'plumped things up' the change from multistorey blocks of Paleaocryistic ice and ice islands large enough to be plotted on charts as 'real islands' to a flat place of 3m or less punctuated by pressure ridges and open leads.

[gagerg]

http://worldwillen.blogspot.ie/2012/11/summer-2013-to-be-next-global-extinction.html

[knocker]

SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA

550 PM AKST FRIDAY NOVEMBER 9 2012

...UPDATED TO ADD NOVEMBER OUTLOOK FOR COOK INLET...

FORECAST VALID...WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 14 2012

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE...MODERATE.

SYNOPSIS...A COLD POLAR LOW WILL MOVE OVER BANKS ISLAND SATURDAY. A

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CHUKCHI AND

BEAUFORT SEAS SUNDAY... MOVING OVER INTERIOR ALASKA MONDAY. ANOTHER

POLAR LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE BEAUFORT SEA MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE

BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN CHUKCHI SEA AND REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A

SERIES OF STRONG LOWS WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF

ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

-ARCTIC OCEAN-

-BEAUFORT SEA-

PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-

ICE COVERED. AN AREA OF OPEN WATER REMAINS BETWEEN 148W TO 142W

ABOUT 40 NM OFF THE COAST. THIS AREA IS 30 TO 50 NM WIDE.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEAUFORT SEA...ICE WILL FILL THE AREA OF

OPEN WATER BY SATURDAY... AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO

INCREASE ICE CONCENTRATION AND THICKNESS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA

THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE

WESTERLY WHICH WILL INCREASE ICE CONCENTRATIONS NEAR THE WESTERN

SHORE OF BANKS ISLAND.

-CHUKCHI SEA-

PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-

PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-

THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM CAPE LISBURNE ALONG THE NORTHWEST ALASKA

COAST TO 69.6N 163.7W TO 70.4N 162.9W TO 70.6N 166.5W TO 70.8N 167.4W

TO 70.4N 169.3W TO 70.5N 175.2W TO 69N 173.6W TO 68.2N 170.7W TO THE

RUSSIAN COAST AT THE BERING STRAIT.

KOTZEBUE SOUND IS ICE COVERED. 1 TO 9 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE

CONTINUES ALONG THE COASTS TO POINT HOPE AND TO NEAR WALES.

FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY CHUKCHI SEA...THE MAIN ICE EDGE WILL BUILD

TO NEAR 69N BY WEDNESDAY. ICE WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP BETWEEN WALES AND

THE RUSSIAN COAST OF THE BERING STRAIT. PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS

THROUGH SATURDAY WILL KEEP THE BERING STRAIT OPEN THROUGH MONDAY. ICE

WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE STRAIT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

-BERING SEA-

PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT-

PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN-

NORTON SOUND IS NEARLY ICE COVERED. ICE LIES WITHIN 10 NM OF THE

COAST FROM PORT CLARENCE TO SOLOMON. ICE LIES 30 TO 60 NM OFF THE

COAST FROM NORTON SOUND TO CAPE NEWENHAM. ICE LIES IN EASTERN BRISTOL

BAY FROM CAPE CONSTANTINE TO 30 NM SOUTHWEST OF PILOT POINT.

FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY...OFFSHORE WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL

MOVE STRIPS OF ICE FURTHER OFFSHORE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF NUNIVAK

ISLAND. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CALMER WINDS WILL RETURN OVER THE

WEEKEND AND ICE WILL DEVELOP AGAIN IN AREAS NEAR SHORE.

-

http://pafc.arh.noaa...fcst=FZAK80PAFC

Edited November 11, 2012 by knocker

[BornFromTheVoid]

http://worldwillen.b...extinction.html

A little... extreme, don't you think? No part of the Arctic is looking tropical at all, which is a problem, seeing as that's the basis for your predictions.

[knocker]

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd agree with BFTV that things are nowhere near the level of catastrophic climate flip just yet?

I cannot say that such a climate shift is not on the cards though?

[keithlucky]

I'd agree with BFTV that things are nowhere near the level of catastrophic climate flip just yet?

I cannot say that such a climate shift is not on the cards though?

[laserguy]

I'd agree with BFTV that things are nowhere near the level of catastrophic climate flip just yet?

GW, is that you??

[Nights King]

I'd agree with BFTV that things are nowhere near the level of catastrophic climate flip just yet?

I cannot say that such a climate shift is not on the cards though?

I doubt any of us will see anything near the level of catastrophic climate wise in our life times!?

Well unless there is some sort of super volcanic event in which case arctic would probably end up quite healthy...

[Gray-Wolf]

I cannot agree with that Mullender. What we are seeing across the Arctic currently is catastrophic and the impacts of such rapid changes are only beginning to be felt in the lower latitudes. I know we cannot ascribe any single event to such changes, only the fact that such changes lead to an increase in the likelihood of certain climate events occurring. The number of heat/drought events across the northern hemisphere in the past 10 years is just such a 'collection' of extreme events clustered around a small time-frame.

I choose 'drought/Heat' due to the impact that has on food production and the 'impacts', on food costs, that this drives for us all (even if removed from the drought/heat ourselves) Again this Autumn we are feeling the impact of low crop yields across the northern hemisphere driven by extended heat/drought across grain producing regions (and our own rain sodden crop yield).

Even UK Honey production has been blighted by our impacted weather.

Since re-visiting the 'global Dimming' issue, on the back of the NASA report on the subject. I have renewed my concerns over the scale of impacts this phenomena has shielded us from over the past decades (with only the post clean air act impacts showing us a taste of what was awaiting us prior to the Asian energy boom again dimming things back down). Even with this huge impact in place we have seen record global temps and the wasting away of the Arctic sea ice. We have seen surface melt across Greenland that has concentrated dark material on the surface lowering the Albedo considerably and allowing even more melt.

Once we emerge from this pollution parasol, and more of the suns energy is able to impact the surface, we will see global temps rise to the point where they are in 'balance with the current GHG content of the atmosphere. We know that the last time we saw this level of GHG's sea levels were 5m higher than today. At that time the GHG's came from within the carbon cycle and that 'extra carbon' is still held in suspended animation under the ice sheets (that will melt to achieve the sea level hikes) and frozen in the permafrosts and will be released back into the system as extra warmth thaws the permafrost and melts the covering ice sheets.

Once this occurs we will have even more GHG's that the past time when sea levels were 5m higher so how high will they now need to rise as temps again try to find a natural balance point for the concentration of GHG's in the atmosphere?

In past events slow solar forcing via orbital alterations has driven the dance and so 'warm ups', though staggered have moved at a corresponding pace. This time the heat will arrive in short order as pollutants drop out of the atmosphere and are not replaced by more as Asia's 'clean air' technology grows. This means a decadal time scale for temps to 'normalise' to new GHG levels.

I am no fan of 'runaway warming'.

I am a fan of natural balance.

I suggest we look at the carbon 'missing' from the current carbon cycle that was present the last time sea levels were 5m higher as a way to figure how much 'Nature' will add to the carbon cycle on top of what we have liberated from long sequestered fossil fuel carbon. All we need do is look to the figure we have added since the start of the Industrial revolution and add this on top of where we are today? We should then see what global temps were the last time the carbon cycle was so engorged?

As I've said the global temp will take a matter of years to 'normalise' after the 'pollution Parasol' is removed. how long , under such conditions, until the ice/permafrosts have liberated natures contribution?

[quest4peace]

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...cweather.uk.php

The arctic just isn't that cold at the moment relatively speaking

2m temps in the arctic from the 10th

And 2m surface temps from today temps are on the up .

Edited November 12, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

C.T. is also showing a drop in some areas of the Arctic (Basin,Laptev,Kara) over the past few days?

[BornFromTheVoid]

C.T. is also showing a drop in some areas of the Arctic (Basin,Laptev,Kara) over the past few days?

Yep, big loss on CT. A drop of 77k yesterday, which takes us to 686k below the next lowest year, 2009.

[quest4peace]

With all this going on i can't help but think of a new low next year now. I'd liked to think we still have enough months to avoid this but i don't know anymore

Edited November 12, 2012 by quest4peace

[gagerg]

With all this going on i can't help but think of a new low next year now. I'd liked to think we still have enough months to avoid this but i don't know anymore

Its hard to imagine what might happen to the Arctic in a few months time for it may improve or it may get much worse. I just hope that being hopeful for the Arctic recovering or at least surviving this summer is not like hitting my head against a brick wall

[Gray-Wolf]

https://sites.google.com/site/apocalypse4realseaice2012/home/sea-ice-concentration-and-thickness-comparison

Above is a link to a site of one of the regulars over on Nevens blog.

I trust his data and skills at plotting it so the latest 'thickness image' is as true a reflection of what is out there as anything. As you can see the 'new ice' is very little ice at all so any disturbance (wind,wave, upwelling) could easily take away the fringes. The losses over on C.T. may just reflect a change in wind direction piling ice on top of ice (esp. the thin stuff?).

[gagerg]

DMI graph shows the Arctic extent coming close to the previous minimums again. I understand the increase in extent does not matter with regards the area problem we are having, but it is nice to see an improvement at the very least.

[Gray-Wolf]

PIOMAS november report still has us trailing all other years? As with extent/area when the basin is full (no room for positive anoms? ) there must come a time when PIOMAS follows previous year in ice volume. This occurs when the number is zero for summer and a minimum thickness, throughout the basin, in winter.

This appears to be what we are seeing occurring with extent /Area near normal but volume down again (as older ,thicker ice forms less of the pack). I do hope folk will not start crying 'Recovery' when we reach the bottom and ice can only match other years?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Lowest global sea ice area maximum record looking almost certain to be broken now.

Where's all the outrage over the lack of media coverage?