Arctic Ice Data And Stats.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to May 17th

 

The current 1 day extent is 12,693,610km2, while the 5 day mean is on 12,714,310km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -554,950km2, a decrease from -619,570km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at -87,110km2, a change from -169,940km2. We're currently 4th lowest on record, compared to 3rd lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -35.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -45.1k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -53.9k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -45.5k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -53.9k/day.

 

The loss so far this May is the 13th largest on record. To achieve the largest May loss, a decrease greater than -84.1k/day is required, while the smallest loss requires a gain of at least +10.0k/day.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to May 24th

 

The current 1 day extent is 12,492,350km2, while the 5 day mean is on 12,549,460km2

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -437,460km2, a decrease from -554,950km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +55,000km2, a change from -87,110km2. We're currently 7th lowest on record, compared to 4th lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -28.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -45.5k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -53.9k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -42.0k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -48.9k/day.

 

The loss so far this May is the 17th smallest on record. To achieve the largest May loss, a decrease greater than -139.4k/day is required, while the smallest loss requires a gain of at least +48.8k/day.

 

 

 

 

Just to note, I'll be changing to a running 5 day mean and using the 81-10 average in the next week or two, so the data and graphs will change a little.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to May 31st (using data based on the 5 day mean)

 

The current 5 day mean is on 12,259,090km2 while the 1 day extent is at 12,176,350km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -468,190km2, an increase from -457,570km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +5,693km2, a change from -5,390km2. We're currently 7th lowest on record, compared to 5th lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -41.5k/day, compared to the long term average of -40.0k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -49.8k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -61.4k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -75.2k/day.

 

The extent loss this May was the 15th smallest on record and 41,360km2 below the 81-10 average.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to June 7th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 11,825,370km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,809,720km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -472,240km2, an increase from -468,190km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +67,195km2, a change from +5,693km2. We're currently 6th lowest on record, compared to 7th lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -62.0k/day, compared to the long term average of -61.4k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -75.2k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -43.9k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -78.0k/day.

 

The loss so far this June is the 16th largest on record. To manage an average June loss, a drop of 50.1k/day is needed, while the largest drop requires -99.4k/day and the smallest just -25.9k/day

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to June 14th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 11,461,300km2 while the 1 day extent is at 11,336,050km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -528,910km2, an increase from -472,240km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +291,221km2, a change from +67,195km2. We're currently 7th lowest on record, compared to 6th lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was 52.0k/day, compared to the long term average of -43.9k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of -78.0k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -54.8k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being -72.1k/day.

 

The loss so far this June is the 14th largest on record. To manage an average June loss, a drop of 55.5k/day is needed, while the largest drop requires -132.6k/day and the smallest just -17.8k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to June 21st

 

The current 5 day mean is on 10,992,000km2 while the 1 day extent is at 10,728,410km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -614,840km2, an increase from -528,910km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +382,201km2, a change from +291,221km2. We're currently 5th lowest on record, compared to 7th lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -67.0k/day, compared to the long term average of -54.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -80.0k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -61.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -84.5k/day.

 

The loss so far this June is the 9th largest on record. To manage an average June loss, a drop of 46.5k/day is needed, while the largest loss requires -183.6k/day and the smallest loss needs a gain of 12.6k/day.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Apologies for the delay, was moving to Cork city yesterday.

 

Update for the week to June 21st

 

The current 5 day mean is on 10,217,200km2 while the 1 day extent is at 9,878,820km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -960,280km2, an increase from -614,840km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +198,770km2, a change from +382,201km2. We're currently 5th lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -110.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -61.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -84.5k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -89.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -132.2k/day.

 

The loss so far this June is the 6th largest on record. To manage an average June loss, an increase of 178k/day is needed, while the largest loss requires -439k/day and the smallest loss needs a gain of +386.4k/day.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to July 5th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 9,201,680km2 while the 1 day extent is at 9,015,620km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,344,840km2, an increase from -960,280km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +112,960km2, a change from +198,770km2. We're currently 4th lowest on record, compared to 5th lowest last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -144.4k/day, compared to the long term average of -89.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -132.2k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -77.7k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -111.2k/day.

 

The loss this June was the 4th largest on record. The top 5 largest are 2012 (2.92 million km2), 2010 (2.64 million km2), 1999 (2.56 million km2), 2014 (2.37 million km2) and 2011 (2.36 million km2).

 

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to July 12th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 8,595,610km2 while the 1 day extent is at 8,445,040km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,411,770km2, an increase from -1,344,840km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +280,760km2, a change from +112,960km2. We're currently 4th lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -87.2k/day, compared to the long term average of -77.7k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -111.2k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -87.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -104.4k/day.

 

The loss so far this July is the 8th largest on record. To achieve an average July loss, a drop of 73.4k/day is required, with the largest loss requiring -118k/day and the smallest requiring -38.9k/day.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to July 19th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 8,000,790km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,903,920km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,392,040km2, a decrease from -1,411,770km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +416,680km2, a change from +280,760km2. We're currently 5th lowest on record, down from 4th last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -85.0k/day, compared to the long term average of -87.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -104.4k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -88.3k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -79.3k/day.

 

The loss so far this July is the 10th largest on record. To achieve an average July loss, a drop of 66.7k/day is required, with the largest loss requiring -137k/day and the smallest requiring -12k/day.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to July 26th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 7,606,530km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,431,630km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,168,450km2, a decrease from -1,392,040km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +577,770km2, a change from +416,680km2. We're currently 7th lowest on record, down from 5th last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -56.3k/day, compared to the long term average of -88.3k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -79.3k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -86.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -73.8k/day.

 

The loss so far this July is the 16th largest on record. To achieve an average July loss, a drop of 81.2k/day is required, with the largest loss requiring -250.4k/day and the smallest requiring an increase of 50.1k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to August 2nd

 

The current 5 day mean is on 7,043,310km2 while the 1 day extent is at 6,905,900km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,130,170km2, a decrease from -1,168,450km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +529,890km2, a change from +577,770km2. We're currently 7th lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -80.6k/day, compared to the long term average of -86.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -73.8k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -73.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -102.8k/day.

 

The loss in July was the 17th largest on record out of 36 years.

 

The loss in the first 2 days of August have been the 12th smallest on record. To achieve the largest August loss on record, a drop of 90.4k/day is required, while an average loss requires -56.2k/day and the smallest loss just -37.8k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to August 9th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 6,665,310km2 while the 1 day extent is at 6,574,460km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -992,940km2, a decrease from -1,130,170km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +872,450km2, a change from +529,890km2. We're currently 7th lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -53.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -73.5k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -102.8k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -60.4k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -79.5k/day.

 

The loss in the first 9 days of August have been the 5th smallest on record. To achieve the largest August loss on record, a drop of 102k/day is required, while an average loss requires -56.9k/day and the smallest loss just -32.7k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to August 16th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 6,188,379km2 while the 1 day extent is at 6,046,810km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,052,020km2, an increase from -992,940km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +947,290km2, a change from +872,450km2. We're currently 7th lowest on record, the same as last week.

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -68.8k/day, compared to the long term average of -60.4k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -79.5k/day.

 

The average long term change over the next week is -50.0k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -66.8k/day.

 

The loss in the first 16 days of August have been the 8th smallest on record. To achieve the largest August loss on record, a drop of 118k/day is required, while an average loss requires -51.4k/day and the smallest loss just -11.8k/day.

 

 

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to August 23rd

 

The current 5 day mean is on 5,809,840km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,792,660km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,076,060km2, an increase from -1,052,020km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 1,041,190km2, a change from +947,290km2. We're currently 8th lowest on record, down from 7th last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -53.4k/day, compared to the long term average of -50.0k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -66.8k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is -40.9k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -50.4k/day.

 

The loss in the first 23 days of August have been the 15th smallest on record. To achieve the largest August loss on record, a drop of 173.6k/day is required, while an average loss requires -49.7k/day and the smallest loss needs an increase of 17.0k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to August 30th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 5,553,040km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,481,640km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,046,530km2, a decrease from -1,076,060km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 1,136,990km2, a change from +1,041,190km2 last week. We're currently 8th lowest on record, the same as last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -36.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -40.9k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -50.4k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is -33.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -40.1k/day.

 

The loss in the first 30 days of August have been the 15th smallest on record. To achieve the largest August loss on record, a drop of 1.13 million km2 is required for the final day, while an average loss requires -140.5k and the smallest loss needs an increase of 392.8k.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to September 6th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 5,310,360km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,229,990km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,056,700km2, an increase from -1,046,530km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 1,174,700km2, a change from +1,136,990km2 last week. We're currently 8th lowest on record, the same as last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -34.7k/day, compared to the long term average of -33.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -40.1k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is -12.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being -15.7k/day.

 

The loss in August was the 16th smallest on record. The change so far this September is the 18th largest gain on record.For September to achieve the largest gain, a daily increase of 38.0k/day is required, while the largest loss requires -6.1k/day, with an averaged September increase requiring +14.8k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to September 13th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 5,108,020km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,029,860km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,173,300km2, an increase from -1,056,700km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 1,082,290km2, a change from +1,174,700km2 last week. We're currently 7th lowest on record, down from 8th last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -28.9k/day, compared to the long term average of -12.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -15.7k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is +5.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +6.7k/day.

 

The change so far this September is the 7th most negative on record. For September to achieve the largest gain, a daily increase of 65.6k/day is required, while the largest loss requires +3.3k/day, with an averaged September increase requiring +23.2k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to September 20th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 5,053,780km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,114,980km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,292,730km2, an increase from -1,173,300km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 959,890km2, a change from 1,082,290km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, down from 7th last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was -4.6k/day, compared to the long term average of -5.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of -6.7k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is +36.9k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +25.5k/day.

 

The change so far this September is the 4th most negative on record. For September to achieve the largest gain, a daily increase of 129.9k/day is required, while the largest loss requires +12.3k/day, with an averaged September increase requiring +67.9k/day.

 

 

 

The minimum, of 5,015,800km2, appears to have been reached on the 18th of this month. This would make the 2014 minimum the 6th lowest on record.

 

[Crepuscular Ray]

2014 sixth lowest minimum since 1978:

 

https://www.youtube.com/embed/Q-8Vh4D3IjE?enablejsapi=1&rel=0

 

Arctic sea ice coverage continued its below-average trend this year as the ice declined to its annual minimum on Sept. 17, according to the NASA-supported National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado, Boulder.

Over the 2014 summer, Arctic sea ice melted back from its maximum extent reached in March to a coverage area of 1.94 million square miles (5.02 million square kilometers), according to analysis from NASA and NSIDC scientists. This year’s minimum extent is similar to last year’s and below the 1981-2010 average of 2.40 million square miles (6.22 million square km).

"Arctic sea ice coverage in 2014 is the sixth lowest recorded since 1978. The summer started off relatively cool, and lacked the big storms or persistent winds that can break up ice and increase melting," said Walter Meier, a research scientist at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland.

“Even with a relatively cool year, the ice is so much thinner than it used to be,†Meier said. “It’s more susceptible to melting.â€

This summer, the Northwest Passage above Canada and Alaska remained ice-bound. A finger of open water stretched north of Siberia in the Laptev Sea, reaching beyond 85 degrees north, which is the farthest north open ocean has reached since the late 1970s, according to Meier.

Click this link or the image above to view the video

An animation of daily Arctic sea ice extent from March 21 to Sept. 17 – when the ice appeared to reach it’s minimum extent for the year. It’s the sixth lowest minimum sea ice extent in the satellite era. The data was provided by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency.

Image Credit: NASA/GSFC Scientific Visualization Studio/T. Schindler

While summer sea ice has covered more of the Arctic in the last two years than in 2012’s record low summer, this is not an indication that the Arctic is returning to average conditions, Meier said. This year’s minimum extent remains in line with a downward trend; the Arctic Ocean is losing about 13 percent of its sea ice per decade.

To measure sea ice extent, scientists include areas that are at least 15 percent ice-covered. The NASA-developed computer analysis, which is one of several methods scientists use to calculate extent, is based on data from NASA’s Nimbus 7 satellite, which operated from 1978 to 1987, and the U.S. Department of Defense’s Defense Meteorological Satellite Program, which has provided information since 1987.

In addition to monitoring sea ice from space, NASA is conducting airborne field campaigns to track changes in Arctic sea ice and its impact on climate. Operation IceBridge flights have been measuring Arctic sea ice and ice sheets for the past several years during the spring. A new field experiment, the Arctic Radiation – IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) started this month to explore the relationship between retreating sea ice and the Arctic climate.

Edited September 22, 2014 by Crepuscular Ray

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to September 27th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 5,283,650km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,331,970km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,273,140km2, a decrease from -1,292,730km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 1,041,530km2, a change from 959,890km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, the same as last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +32.8k/day, compared to the long term average of +36.9k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +25.5k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is +68.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +54.1k/day.

 

The change so far this September is the 9th most negative on record. For September to achieve the largest gain, a daily increase of 313.1k/day is required, while the largest loss requires -39.7k/day, with an averaged September increase requiring +127.0k/day.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 4th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 5,671,660km2 while the 1 day extent is at 5,792,910km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,361,530km2, an increase from -1,273,140km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 1,050,900km2, a change from 1,041,530km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, the same as last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +55.4k/day, compared to the long term average of +68.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +54.1k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is +89.5k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +70.8k/day.

 

The change in September was the 8th most negative on record.

 

The increase so far in October is the 8th lowest on record. For the largest increase the daily average needs to be greater than +129.9k/day, while the lowest requires less than 47.1k/day and the average needs 91.3k/day.

 

  

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 11th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 6,202,570km2 while the 1 day extent is at 6,452,380km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,457,330km2, an increase from -1,361,530km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at 1,086,540km2, a change from 1,050,900km2 last week. We're currently 5th lowest on record, up from 6th lowest last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +75.8k/day, compared to the long term average of +89.5.1k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +70..8k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is +98.2k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +108.1k/day.

 

The increase so far in October is the 13th smallest on record. For the largest increase the daily average needs to be greater than +148.8k/day, while the lowest requires less than 37.1k/day and the average needs 96.7k/day.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 18th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 7,023,750km2 while the 1 day extent is at 7,272,410km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -1,323,220km2, a decrease from -1,457,330km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +1,151,340km2, a change from +1,086,540km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, down from 5th lowest last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +117.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +98.2k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +108.1k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is +89.8k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +164.0k/day.

 

The increase so far in October is the 17th largest on record. For the largest monthly increase, the daily average needs to be greater than +165.7k/day, while the lowest requires losing at least 6.1k/day and the average needs +85.5k/day.

 

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Update for the week to October 25th

 

The current 5 day mean is on 8,089,790km2 while the 1 day extent is at 8,381,080km2.

 

The daily anomaly (compared to 81-10) is at -885,800km2, a decrease from -1,323,220km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average is at +1,069,540km2, a decrease from +1,151,340km2 last week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, the same as last week.

 

The average daily change over the last 7 days was +152.3k/day, compared to the long term average of +89.8k/day, and the 07, 11 and 12 average of +164.0k/day.

The average long term change over the next week is +79.1k/day, with the 07, 11, and 12 average being +156.3k/day.

 

The increase so far in October is the 7th largest on record. For the largest monthly increase, the daily average needs to be greater than +181.3k/day, while the lowest requires losing at least 190.9k/day and the average needs +7.7k/day.