Scientists Blame Warmer Atlantic For Wet Summers

[Summer Sun]

Recent warming in the Atlantic Ocean is the main cause of wet summers in northern Europe, according to a new study.

A cyclical pattern of rising and falling ocean temperatures is seen as a major influence on our weather.

Scientists say the current pattern will last as long as the Atlantic warming persists.

The research was carried out at the University of Reading and is published in the journal Nature Geoscience.

The study investigated a phenomenon known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation - a cycle of change in which the waters either warm or cool over a period of several decades.

The researchers compared three periods in this cycle: a warm state from 1931-60, a cool period from 1961-90 and the most recent warm period starting in 1990 and continuing now.

The paper notes that conditions in the last warm period in the Atlantic are broadly similar to those observed now.

So the study compared weather conditions in Europe during the two warm Atlantic phases with those experienced in the cool phase.

One conclusion is that a warmer-than-usual Atlantic "favours a mild spring (specially April), summer and autumn, in England and across Europe."

Another finding - of greatest relevance to the search for a cause of rainy summers - is that the warmth of the ocean also tends to make northern and central Europe wetter than usual. By contrast southern Europe, from Portugal to Turkey, gets far less rain than normal.

That was the pattern observed last summer.

So what about the next few summers? Professor Sutton says there is no sign of the Atlantic Ocean cooling for the moment so the current pattern is likely to continue.

The only good news, he says, is that the transition between warm and cool phases in the ocean can happen quickly and cold winters may be a precursor to that change.

So, ironically, if the coming months bring freezing conditions, that may have an impact on the temperature of the Atlantic, and that in turn might mean the ocean switches to a cooler phase and so lead to drier summers for Britain.

But no one is betting on it - the research is still in its earliest days.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19848112

[4wd]

I thought the slightly wetter than normal summer was being blamed on reduced Arctic ice last week.

[Methuselah]

I thought the slightly wetter than normal summer was being blamed on reduced Arctic ice last week.

Aye. But this is this week!

[BornFromTheVoid]

I thought the slightly wetter than normal summer was being blamed on reduced Arctic ice last week.

That's mainly snow cover for summer, but they're all kinda interrelated. The ice influence is for Autumn and Winter.

Can't find a copy of the paper yet, so can't say too much about it. Link and abstract anywho...

http://www.nature.co...l/ngeo1595.html

European climate exhibits variability on a wide range of timescales. Understanding the nature and drivers of this variability is an essential step in developing robust climate predictions and risk assessments. The Atlantic Ocean has been suggested as an important driver of variability in European climate on decadal timescales1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, but the importance of this influence in recent decades has been unclear, partly because of difficulties in separating the influence of the Atlantic Ocean from other contributions, for example, from the tropical Pacific Ocean and the stratosphere7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12. Here we analyse four data sets derived from observations to show that, during the 1990s, there was a substantial shift in European climate towards a pattern characterized by anomalously wet summers in northern Europe, and hot, dry, summers in southern Europe, with related shifts in spring and autumn. These changes in climate coincided with a substantial warming of the North Atlantic Ocean13, towards a state last seen in the 1950s. The patterns of European climate change in the 1990s are consistent with earlier changes attributed to the influence of the North Atlantic Ocean4, 6 and provide compelling evidence that the Atlantic Ocean was the key driver. Our results suggest that the recent pattern of anomalies in European climate will persist as long as the North Atlantic Ocean remains anomalously warm.

[Village]

Finally, ten years later my theories have been proved to have weight.

I posted up this theory on UK weather world in 2003. I wrote to the University of East Anglia climate department with it because I felt that they were 100% wrong in predicting dryer summers and summer droughts more commonplace here in the Uk due to global warming.

The EEDA at that time were using public money to encourage farmers and industry in the east of England to invest money in preparation for water shortages due to the UEA's predictions of summer droughts becoming much more likely.

In 2003 I gave the UEA a full appraisal of my thoughts as to why the UK was much more likely to become cooler and wetter in the summer if the north Atlantic warmed slightly. This new report backs me up and so does the last six years of weather data. The University of East Anglia by contrast never bothered to reply to me or to try and substantiate their predictions after my email.

The EEDA dropped their advice to businesses and farmers in the region two years later after my discussions with them.

The UDA now have more explainiung to do I think....but dont expect it to be forthcoming. I think their reputation is in tatters now on a number of issues, this being one of them.

Edited October 8, 2012 by Village

[Rainy]

I thought the slightly wetter than normal summer was being blamed on reduced Arctic ice last week.

Are you having a laugh FWD. "Slightly wetter" Come on..

Western uplands have had an awful summer. Already within 10mm of beating the long term average annual rain. Seriously short of sunshine and temps have been depressed. Farming a write off in many parts.

Some places on sloping well drained land, specially on limestone or with thin soils, have coped better.

Seems to me that the much warmed Atlantic is the major player.

[Snowyowl9]

And I thought it was to do with the jet being much further south in recent summers,making us wetter.

If the jet was to of gone further north over iceland for the last 15 years we`d have droughts.

And the HP belt moved further north like the alarmists predicted back in 87/1988.

Since 1997 it hasn`t warmed up official.