Tropical Storm Tony

[Somerset Squall]

Another tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic, well northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Convection is persisting near the LLC. 19L has about 48hrs to strengthen before shear rises and waters cool on the northward track. Over the next couple of days, 19L should move northwards on the east side of a low, and then move northeastwards as the depression hits the mid-lattitude westerlies. These westerlies should be the main cause of weakening beyond 48hrs.

[Somerset Squall]

Shear has risen prematurely over 19L today, stopping it from strengthening. However, latest imagery depicts some much more concentrated convection over the LLC, so 19L could still become a tropical storm, though the long term future looks bleak for the cyclone as shear is set to rise further tomorrow night, and waters will be cooling as 19L moves towards the northeast.

[Somerset Squall]

19L is now Tropical Storm Tony, with winds of 35kts. Amazing that we have got down to the 'T' storm again this year so soon after the last time (2010).

[Somerset Squall]

Tony has continued to strengthen this afternoon and sustained winds are now at 45kts. However, shear is rising further and Tony is moving over cooler water, so extratropical transition is going to begin very soon.

Interesting thoughts from Jeff Masters:

Tony's place in history

Tony is the Nineteenth named storm of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, tying this year with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2011 for third busiest Atlantic season since the HURDAT historical data base began in 1851. With five more weeks left before the November 30 end of hurricane season, 2012 is likely to move into second place for most named storms before the year is out, as all six prior Atlantic hurricane seasons with nineteen or more named storms have had at least one named storm form after October 24. Here, then, is a list of the seven busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record:

2005 (28 named storms)

1933 (20 named storms, according to a new re-analysis)

2012 (19 named storms)

1887 (19 named storms)

2010 (19 named storms)

2011 (19 named storms)

1995 (19 named storms)

It's pretty remarkable that we've now had three straight years with nineteen named storms in the Atlantic.

Edited October 24, 2012 by Somerset Squall

[Somerset Squall]

Tony has become extratropical, and NHC have issued the last advisory as a result.