Wales Cymru Cold Spell Regional Discussion

[alijoe]

Magor (Major) snow in Magor - no probs Ali - GFS 12z so far - temps overnight sunday into Monday is when it all begins!!!!!!! - colder temps start to bed in! - not far away now

edit:- already feeling colder outside after the rain cleared today - GFS 12z tuesday night now looking like alot of precip about and with a little height - could well be the start of some fun and snow games! - defo going to be feeling bone chillingly raw next week though!

Your a STAR cheers Andy. Also, do you know how I upload pics in here? I have couple pics of some local flooding though people might be interested in looking at.

[andymusic]

Your a STAR cheers Andy. Also, do you know how I upload pics in here? I have couple pics of some local flooding though people might be interested in looking at.

when you go into reply to this topic - click in the right hand corner on "More reply options" - you will then find a larger reply box shows up and at the bottom there is a file attachment tool for you to use!

[alijoe]

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16679-flood1/

https://forum.netweather.tv/gallery/image/16680-flood2/

Flooding in Langstone near Magor south east wales today.

when you go into reply to this topic - click in the right hand corner on "More reply options" - you will then find a larger reply box shows up and at the bottom there is a file attachment tool for you to use!

cheers andy, have managed to do as you said and it WORKED yipee lol

[andymusic]

Flooding in Langstone near Magor south east wales today.

cheers andy, have managed to do as you said and it WORKED yipee lol

crikey that looks bad - and there's more to come by the looks of things x 3 - I used to perform (keyboard + mate on harp) not far from there every friday and saturday night for about 2 years in the 90s - don't remember the name of the pub but I think it's across the way from Britannia Motors - nice area!

We often have our own enforced "olympic sized swimming pool" just down from the house on the country lane - led to a nasty accident in 2008 where both mine and my other half's cars were given a good whack as we park them on the road - the guy crunching into them aqua planed through the swimming pool and wrote off my car which smashed into my other half's - since then we've had our very own private flood warning signs go up from both directions - it has helped I think - no incidents yet anyway!

edit:- just occured to me - weather right now bit like day after tomoz film - wet with lots of flooding - then it turns colder and snows!

Edited November 21, 2012 by andymusic

[J10]

Flooding in Langstone near Magor south east wales today.

cheers andy, have managed to do as you said and it WORKED yipee lol

And That's before tomorrow's rain.

[keithlucky]

Well the really cold weather is in to the UK by the middle of next week Bitter is the word that fits this chart with snow showers pushing east to west on a fresh north easterly wind by the middle of next week

[Ukwoody]

So what do reckon, do you think theres any chance for us here in Milford Haven? or yet another wet cold period?

Woody

[J10]

It seems clear that the pattern change will happen early next week, and turn things a bit colder, so if we were to look to T+120/T+144, there is pretty good argument between the models, but beyond that it is too early to say what will happen. It certainly is looking more promising than last winter already, (admittedly not saying much)

If anything the BOM chart is even better than the ECM above, maybe not quite as cold but gives better longevity of the cold.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Jackone

[keithlucky]

It seems clear that the pattern change will happen early next week, and turn things a bit colder, so if we were to look to T+120/T+144, there is pretty good argument between the models, but beyond that it is too early to say what will happen. It certainly is looking more promising than last winter already, (admittedly not saying much)

2110 Encore Jackone it be great for us in Wales to have a break from all this rain,we must be close to be breaking our rainfall total record total for the year.I have never experienced having so much trouble in setting out footings for new builds or having simple things like concrete curing . Worst year in living memory for rainfall and a cool summer.

[TonyH]

2110 Encore Jackone it be great for us in Wales to have a break from all this rain,we must be close to be breaking our rainfall total record total for the year.I have never experienced having so much trouble in setting out footings for new builds or having simple things like concrete curing . Worst year in living memory for rainfall and a cool summer.

That long!

As for rainfall Keith it's nowhere near a record breaker hereabouts, perhaps Swansea has been a lot wetter though?

[keithlucky]

That long!

As for rainfall Keith it's nowhere near a record breaker hereabouts, perhaps Swansea has been a lot wetter though?

Must be a lot more rain in south Wales T be using pumps to dry out trenches after removing the ducks lol .

[mikeocarroll]

Great photos alijoe, I think an ark might be needed by the end of the week at this rate.Anyone got Noah's phone number?

Jackone's link to his post in the other thread is well worth following it shows just how slow moving the rain band is tomorrow. The wind gusts aren't to be sniffed at either; I wouldn't want to be working outside tomorrow:

With regards cold spell next week, the forecast synoptics are fantastic for this time of year and snow is a real possiblity by the end of next week (say Thursday onwards), but I would sound a couple of notes of caution, being: a) this is still around 180hours away which would normally be regarded as FI, and while we have good cross-model agreement, there are still one or two ensemble members than refuse to go for the cold solution; and B) snow is always marginal in the UK and it will be another 4-5 days before we can start to properly assess whether we will get snow in Wales, whether it will settle, etc., and even then it's best never to count your snowflakes until you see them falling past your favourite lampost!

[Cwmbran Eira]

Old laminate floori causing havoc over the model thread. Hilarious!

It's like he's the Bieber of the weather world. Is it really you? classic

Anyway. Already more interesting weather to look forward to this year compared to the whole of last winter. My only worry (I know, never happy) is that it will be short lived. I would really love a sustained cold spell end of December carrying through well into January.

Interesting stuff though. Better stock up on the old wood!

Edited November 21, 2012 by Cwmbran Eira

[keithlucky]

Old laminate floori causing havoc over the model thread. Hilarious!

It's like he's the Bieber of the weather world. Is it really you? classic

Anyway. Already more interesting weather to look forward to this year compared to the whole of last winter. My only worry (I know, never happy) is that it will be short lived. I would really love a sustained cold spell end of December carrying through well into January.

Interesting stuff though. Better stock up on the old wood!

My money on andymusic or it could be me lol

[Cwmbran Eira]

My money on andymusic or it could be me lol

cheeky!

he's a gonna. That was funny though.

I was going to ask him for a quote to laminate me throughout. Too late now. He's probably gone to wrestle bison or something.

What's your gut feeling on this winter? sniffs of something special?

Edited November 21, 2012 by Cwmbran Eira

[andymusic]

I'm 99% sure it's a wind up! - sure he'd announce on his twitter feed that he'd got involved with net weather + I get the feeling with all his gadding about and his busy-ness for weatherbell - he ain't got the time to get involved with net weather! - I'll eat my hat and build a net weather snowman next week if I'm wrong!

edit:- but you never know - maybe it is me (and I don't even know I'm doing it - being one of his diciples un all! - Yee Haaa)

Edited November 21, 2012 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

cheeky!

he's a gonna. That was funny though.

I was going to ask him for a quote to laminate me throughout. Too late now. He's probably gone to wrestle bison or something.

What's your gut feeling on this winter? sniffs of something special?

There seems to be a general agreement that we in for a cold spell JB GP P corbyn etc... the Jet stream is gone south Spain and Portugal Italy are experiencing very wet weather ,plus very low solar activity ,also a big volcano eruption in New Zealand all points to a possible cold winter .I think January will be very cold and February also.

[Cwmbran Eira]

There seems to be a general agreement that we in for a cold spell JB GP P corbyn etc... the Jet stream is gone south Spain and Portugal Italy are experiencing very wet weather ,plus very low solar activity ,also a big volcano eruption in New Zealand all points to a possible cold winter .I think January will be very cold and February also.

Great!. Something definately changed a few years ago with respect to weather patterns. 6 wash out summers & some great cold/snowy winters.

I might finally get to use that snow shovel I bought in Aldis last November. £3.99 and never used. Criminal

[TonyH]

Certainly interesting times since 2007! We don't really want Corbyn though do we?

[J10]

That long!

As for rainfall Keith it's nowhere near a record breaker hereabouts, perhaps Swansea has been a lot wetter though?

The first months were well below average rainfall as with a lot of places, clearly a wet summer, my guess is around the 1000mm mark, maybe a bit lower.

Edit - just below 900mm, which is around normal, but higher than last year already.

I'm 99% sure it's a wind up! - sure he'd announce on his twitter feed that he'd got involved with net weather + I get the feeling with all his gadding about and his busy-ness for weatherbell - he ain't got the time to get involved with net weather! - I'll eat my hat and build a net weather snowman next week if I'm wrong!

edit:- but you never know - maybe it is me (and I don't even know I'm doing it - being one of his diciples un all! - Yee Haaa)

It's not him.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Jackone

[TonyH]

The first months were well below average rainfall as with a lot of places, clearly a wet summer, my guess is around the 1000mm mark, maybe a bit lower.

1182mm here so far this year, so no chance of reaching 1553mm (2008) which is the wettest year.

Wetter at Llanelli, this station on Wunderground on 1254mm so far, so Swansea even wetter probably, certainly a very wet year for south Wales:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=ICARMART4&day=21&year=2012&month=11&graphspan=year

[Cwmbran Eira]

Fergieweather teasing again about his little chats with mates at the meto

Why can't our Derick do the same for us Welshy's.

or even our Behnaz

[TonyH]

Fergieweather teasing again about his little chats with mates at the meto

Why can't our Derick do the same for us Welshy's.

or even our Behnaz

You could follow Derek on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/DerekTheWeather

[virtualsphere]

1182mm here so far this year, so no chance of reaching 1553mm (2008) which is the wettest year.

Wetter at Llanelli, this station on Wunderground on 1254mm so far, so Swansea even wetter probably, certainly a very wet year for south Wales:

http://www.wundergro...&graphspan=year

Very wet here north of Llanelli but I only started keeping records this year so have nothing to compare it to. Over 100mm every month since April with over 200mm in June and August. On purely instinct I would say it is probably the wettest year since I moved here in 2003 but 2008 may have come close.

[J10]

1182mm here so far this year, so no chance of reaching 1553mm (2008) which is the wettest year.

Wetter at Llanelli, this station on Wunderground on 1254mm so far, so Swansea even wetter probably, certainly a very wet year for south Wales:

http://www.wundergro...&graphspan=year

866mm at Mumbles Weather Centre (Weatheronline) . It tends to be drier on the coast than inland, but my guess would be more for Tycoch than there,

71.50 Jan

40.00 Feb

19.70 Mar

79.20 Apr

58.60 May

150.60 June

127.40 July

100.00 August

42.00 Sept

88.00 Oct

89.00 Nov

But that doesn't include today.

Pembrey's figures are also on there, so I will double check both figures and post both later.

I

Edited November 21, 2012 by Jackone