Scotland Regional Discussion 06/12/12 ------>

[Hairy Celt]

Still have some snaw

That would justify an amber warning in Middlesex.

[LomondSnowstorm]

I'd head on over to the Strat thread for those looking for some more medium term interest: Chiono has a major strat-based prophecy regarding the Siberian high backing west between now and New Year before the SSW occurs with 3 blocking episodes to follow up to the start of February...

[NorthernRab]

I'd head on over to the Strat thread for those looking for some more medium term interest: Chiono has a major strat-based prophecy regarding the Siberian high backing west between now and New Year before the SSW occurs with 3 blocking episodes to follow up to the start of February...

That forecasted warming would be record-breaking unless I'm mistaken?

Very exciting times for January.

[Zenarcher]

Scotland's weather for Saturday a cloudy and wet start for most with some mist around as well. By the afternoon drying up but staying wet over the North, elsewhere staying cloudy and misty. On Saturday night it will clear up along the South for a good amount of time elsewhere is likely to remain cloudy though with still a risk of mist around. Early hours of the morning Shetland will be hit by very strong winds where gusts of 70mph are likely for the rest of Scotland on Saturday it will be mainly a strong breeze but gales are likely in the morning along the Eastern coasts. Temps will still be cold for inland areas although not as cold as the previous days.

Another cloudy day here with gale force winds from the SE. It has remained dry and temps are still cold.

Edited December 14, 2012 by weathermaster

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Car currently getting road salt covering washed off.

Every cloud has a silver lining.

[LomondSnowstorm]

That forecasted warming would be record-breaking unless I'm mistaken?

Very exciting times for January.

I believe so, 6Z had it at 9C which would be a record in itself but yesterday's were up to 14C, which would be a monumental event.

[over_the_rainbow]

Went to work this morning and turned into the abominable snowman! i was literally white all over.

Came home drenched to the skin and turned into a drowned rat. Ahh Scottish weather!

Hope the exam went ok LS? Away to look on strat thread as directed!

[Northernlights]

Raw day here with a slow thaw mostly dry but very dark and overcast this afternoon currently 3c. Ground still rock hard.Will need to lift parsnips this week end for Christmas if it thaws a bit more. On the down side begining to hear of hundreds of acres of tatties not being lifted and after this frost will have to be left in the ground till spring to let the frosted ones rot away to nothing and anything deep enough survive till the spring to see if they justify lifting. Thousands of acres of straw will also be left till spring unbaled and a decision taken then.

Cows today decided to stay after eating their drill of neeps to scour the lifted area to find any remaining morsels and spent another 3 hours criss crossing the field and also eating any remaining green grass on the banks. Now that to me says they are feeding up ahead of less benign weather.The birds at the feeders were in a similar voracious feeding mood. Animal models say yes to difficult feding weather.

To add to this also saw flock of about 2000 pigeons in one of our grass fields today making it blue to look at and 2 fields away about 5000 geese all feeding like crazy.

Good agreement between all natures models

[Ravelin]

To add to the "alternative weather models" theme, I'll add the "Kids Football Weather Model". My son's team have had all but one weekend game called off due to ice/snow/water on the pitches for several weeks now. This weekend is thier last scheduled game before the Xmas break, with the next scheduled game on the weekend of the 12th Jan.

My prediction.....the weather will get mild and dry enough after this weekend for the pitches to become playable, but will then deteriorate in time for them to be unplayable again by 12th Jan.

Ravelin

[Polar Gael]

Raw, dark & very wet here now. A grim day. Min -4.6ºC overnight, now up to a relatively balmy 4.7ºC. Much preferred the bright, crisp ice days we had been having. Hopefully, we won't have too long to wait before they return.

[Cheggers]

Just back in and it's a heatwave ootside... 6C and pishy wet.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Basic model summary so far tonight: don't write anything off, no matter how compelling FI may suddenly look. GFS goes a bit mental with the PV and brings in some cold zonality after some real mild but to be honest the only constant in the modelling is the massive strat warming at the end of the month. Also, there's the real possibility that the undercut only affects us and not our southern neighbours, in which case it may not be reported by the 'mainstream model thread media' (just as most of us aren't focusing too much on the snow potential in Shetland I suppose). Anyway, it'll probably take a day or two more, if not longer, to really see where we're going with that.

[edo]

De icer no more Luncarty ice rink no more snaw no more sledging no more snowballs no more but the rain is in a heavy state of pour.....

Anyway forget the normal models now.... I'm a stratman

[snow1975]

Basic model summary so far tonight: don't write anything off, no matter how compelling FI may suddenly look. GFS goes a bit mental with the PV and brings in some cold zonality after some real mild but to be honest the only constant in the modelling is the massive strat warming at the end of the month. Also, there's the real possibility that the undercut only affects us and not our southern neighbours, in which case it may not be reported by the 'mainstream model thread media' (just as most of us aren't focusing too much on the snow potential in Shetland I suppose). Anyway, it'll probably take a day or two more, if not longer, to really see where we're going with that.

something like 2nd February 2001?

[LomondSnowstorm]

something like 2nd February 2001?

This?

If it were to come off positively then it'd probably look something along the lines of that. I can't remember it for some reason but I'm aware that it did bring a lot of snow to eastern Fife in particular.

[GulberwickWeather]

Blowing a hooly up here! Top gust so far 61mph. Light rain at the moment but snow expected later.

[Cheggers]

Pishing doon in buckets the noo! Might have to do a HC........

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

Found this old snap of HC from way back.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Summary for tonight: it's a bit of a mess, shortwaves all over the place, still a chance of an undercut before Christmas but also the chance of mild weather. GFS tries to resolve the mess into a straightforward mild zonal pattern but most other models and ensembles keep a number of options on the table, some resolving for the better with others a real mix. Once again, as has been shown already this winter, we can get snow and cold from even transitory looking and benign cold and if we can avoid the GFS nightmare in FI there will be at least some interest between now and Christmas, IMO

[GulberwickWeather]

Top gust now 68.4mph and still blowing strong.

[cscrim]

Summary for tonight: it's a bit of a mess, shortwaves all over the place, still a chance of an undercut before Christmas but also the chance of mild weather. GFS tries to resolve the mess into a straightforward mild zonal pattern but most other models and ensembles keep a number of options on the table, some resolving for the better with others a real mix. Once again, as has been shown already this winter, we can get snow and cold from even transitory looking and benign cold and if we can avoid the GFS nightmare in FI there will be at least some interest between now and Christmas, IMO

really is toss the coin at the moment. anyone thinking it is already resolved or will be in the next day or so are wrong. I can see why people on the model thread are going down the less cold route, but really, that is like me putting a fiver on Messi to score for Barcelona every match. wont pay out on the odd occasion but will majority of time. sadly that is what we are facing given so many failed events and the location this island is in.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Also, having had a look at the ECM postage stamps (tout en n'étant pas destiné à être disponible gratuitement, toute personne qui n'a pas le lien pouvez me PM pour cela) at least 50% are on the cusp of bringing the really cold air into eastern Scotland on an easterly or southeasterly flow (albeit potentially brief).

[cscrim]

christ, dont post that in the MT, you will really get them going.

[LomondSnowstorm]

christ, dont post that in the MT, you will really get them going.

Maybe not the wisest idea but the ECM ensemble mean shows it up also quite clearly:

Considering a few must go down the blowtorch route by +192 that's a pretty decent mean temperature.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Also, the French on that is a bit dodgy, this may be less misleading on a translator:

tout en n'étant pas destiné à être disponible gratuitement, toute personne qui n'a pas a le lien pouvez me PM pour cela