Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

[Gas Ed]

Ian mentions the SSW on tonight's forecast just now, in prep for POSSIBLE change to colder weather in 2nd half of January.

Top bloke in our neck of the woods - we're lucky!

Yes, was an excellent forecast, I guess helped by the benign weather we're currently experiencing allowing more time for Ian to explain SSW in some detail, and yes we're blessed to have him as our own

Ian, please keep up the good work on here & twitter. It's certainly not unnoticed!!!!

Edited January 4, 2013 by Gas Ed

[davecornwall]

No mention here on Spotlight.

[cerneman]

No mention here on Spotlight.

Maybe worried mass panic would breakout, Mention word snow around where I live and supermarket shelves empty,

[bigdog1]

Well I work for the highways in somerset we have just had an instruction from the department of transport today to report our salt stocks to them on Monday .T

he last time we had to supply this information was back in 2010 when we had the snow avent .

[Lyn-M]

Just watched it on the computer, Fascinating stuff and have to agree that Ian is first class!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Top job fergie describing an ssw on the bbc!

As someone who is often quite critical of the modern BBC forecasts, I just thought I'd pop in here and express agreement- I just saw the forecast on the BBC Points West website and thought that it was fantastic, the right balance of detail & simplicity regarding the upcoming weather, and the stuff about the stratospheric warming is the sort of thing that gets many of those with a passing interest in meteorology to become more interested and understand it better.

Makes up for missing John Hammond's forecast last night that made a reference to it.

Edited January 4, 2013 by Thundery wintry showers

[I remember Atlantic 252]

anyone with sky tv would see fergie, channel 967, not far off 912 which I have on

[jethro]

I think the sea temp round here (Somerset/Devon) was about 12 degrees in December and may have helped the Atlantic depressions sweep in (??). Not that I surf come the end of October - being a complete wimp - but husband does (mad!) and he said it was warm. I wonder what the sea temp was when we DID get the snow???

I don't know the answer to that but I've just been re-visiting a brilliant book called Frozen in Time - it's all about our coldest winters and in 1947 the sea temp off the Norfolk coast was -2c! The ice floes off the East and South East coasts stretched a mile out to sea!!!!!!!

[gottolovethisweather]

Can we have a link to the forecast please?

Edited January 4, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Can we have a link to the forecast please?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2654675

[jethro]

Can we have a link to the forecast please?

From me for 1947?????

The cold set in at the end of January and lasted through into March, here's a random date from February that year:

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&ei=DzjnUMq5IurJ0QXxmoGICA&hl=en&prev=/search%3Fq%3Dwetterzentrale%26hl%3Den%26tbo%3Dd%26biw%3D1600%26bih%3D898&rurl=translate.google.co.uk&sl=de&u=http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsreaeur.html&usg=ALkJrhhM5zc59fdIslRuWZfXoq8k1p6YOg

[suxer]

With all this up coming potential of cold weather,where is mullender?Sking?I seem to remember in recent times we get are best spells of cold weather when he's not around !!!!

[Coast]

From me for 1947?????

The cold set in at the end of January and lasted through into March, here's a random date from February that year:

http://translate.goo...uWZfXoq8k1p6YOg

Or 1963?

[Coast]

Just watched it on the computer, Fascinating stuff and have to agree that Ian is first class!

+1

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes Ian F does present a well detailed forecast and should help bring more appeal to the subject as a science. So often, from watching the many other forecasts on the media, you could be forgiven for thinking that the weather just happens and there is no scientific approach needed. Hopefully he can help to inspire the next generation.

As for now, 7.8c, cloudy, 1036.6mb in Newbury.

Here's to some fun around the corner.

Edited January 4, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

Here's to some fun around the corner.

It's currently our best shot this Winter, but be cautious and chilled please!!!!

You got to love these temps creeping up on the SW though:

Edited January 4, 2013 by Coast

[kumquat]

As someone who is often quite critical of the modern BBC forecasts, I just thought I'd pop in here and express agreement- I just saw the forecast on the BBC Points West website and thought that it was fantastic, the right balance of detail & simplicity regarding the upcoming weather, and the stuff about the stratospheric warming is the sort of thing that gets many of those with a passing interest in meteorology to become more interested and understand it better.

Makes up for missing John Hammond's forecast last night that made a reference to it.

Indeed. Surely can't be too long before Fergie is promoted to a more national weather forecast post?

[Dave Kightley]

We could all say we've been Snow less until 6th November comes to mind or whenever it was ;P Terrible winter for Snow so far must admit. It's like the Synoptic's have tried but we actually become worse off compared to Zonal and with the odd N.W.

Blocking to the east with troughs to the West are the Bartlett of cold Synoptic's.

Edited January 5, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[Dave Kightley]

I look up in the 1700's we had Cold winter's every year with Snow 10 ft high. Zonal once must of been Snow fest instead of rain fest. I can't get my head round how'd you get 10 ft on this island every year with blizzards and Winter storms. I mean the Synoptic's never last long enough and are always dry. Nothing you see on the telly.

The Synoptic's interest me as we have never experienced it or more meaning myself.

Edited January 5, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[Dave Kightley]

I want a 1987 Windstorm as a Snowstorm. Lets go hardcore ;P

We are overdue a USA Winter storm in this Country. Something extreme!

Edited January 5, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[kumquat]

We could all say we've been Snow less until 6th November comes to mind or whenever it was ;P Terrible winter for Snow so far must admit. It's like the Synoptic's have tried but we actually become worse off compared to Zonal and with the odd N.W.

Blocking to the east with troughs to the West are the Bartlett of cold Synoptic's.

Agreed.

Funny I keep hearing this this but right here we saw zilch (6th November). Just up the road just under "The Edge" in Horton (S Glos) they had an inch of snow that morning. The trouble with much of this whole model watching / cold chasing is the IMBYism and lack of awareness of the "general" picture when talking to a forum made up of folk from all over the British Isles. It could be ppn distribution, it could be altitude, it could be closeness to towns/cities, it could be preferred "frost hollows" or other geographic anomalies or it could be a nearby cattleshed full of methane but there is always a factor where somewhere a mile (or less) away from somebody else sees a different outcome.

"Blocking to the east with troughs to the West are the Bartlett of cold Synoptic's"

The recent, semi-infamous displaced Bartlett springs to mind

[Dave Kightley]

Agreed.

Funny I keep hearing this this but right here we saw zilch (6th November). Just up the road just under "The Edge" in Horton (S Glos) they had an inch of snow that morning. The trouble with much of this whole model watching / cold chasing is the IMBYism and lack of awareness of the "general" picture when talking to a forum made up of folk from all over the British Isles. It could be ppn distribution, it could be altitude, it could be closeness to towns/cities, it could be preferred "frost hollows" or other geographic anomalies or it could be a nearby cattleshed full of methane but there is always a factor where somewhere a mile (or less) away from somebody else sees a different outcome.

"Blocking to the east with troughs to the West are the Bartlett of cold Synoptic's"

The recent, semi-infamous displaced Bartlett springs to mind

HAHA Something must of changed if cold and snowy weather every winter in the past successfully reached our island. The synoptic's just never deliver what you hear back then or just go wrong. Seemed so much straight forward and a lot more snowy. 1800's for e.g.

Shortwaves must not of existed! A lack of Blocking from 1987-2007 might be to blame but the Blocks have come back but the Snow hasn't! If you imagine us coming out of an ice age it feels that way. A melting world with a decline of Snow. You think of Snow you think of war times. A thing of the past. You hear a great relaxing song you wanna look back on old photos of snow. The world is changing and so it's the weather. What i feel anyway

Edited January 5, 2013 by Dave Kightley

[kumquat]

HAHA Something must of changed if cold and snowy weather every winter in the past successfully reached our island. The synoptic's just never deliver what you hear back then or just go wrong. Seemed so much straight forward and a lot more snowy. 1800's for e.g.

Shortwaves must not of existed! A lack of Blocking from 1987-2007 might be to blame but the Blocks have come back but the Snow hasn't! If you imagine us coming out of an ice age it feels that way. A melting world with a decline of Snow. You think of Snow you think of war times. A thing of the past. You hear a great relaxing song you wanna look back on old photos of snow. The world is changing and so it's the weather. What i feel anyway

With regards to the winters of old I've been looking into the MJO and ENSO cycles and their fluctuations, interactions and possible effects on ....wait for it... Pilchard fishing and spawning patterns off the coasts of Cornwall around the c1700,1800,1900 when that region showed a significant fecund to unproductive/catastrophic breakdown for that industry in that area. I'm trying to look beyond the smaller scale investigations in the literature regarding spawning areas towards the West and further East into the English Channel. It could be that over fishing comes up trumps but that would not explain the empirical data as presented to date.

The world is changing as you say but I wouldn't rule out the corollary that we might be heading back into an Ice Age. (This time with our own influence stamped all over it).

[Mark Parsons]

HAHA Something must of changed if cold and snowy weather every winter in the past successfully reached our island. The synoptic's just never deliver what you hear back then or just go wrong. Seemed so much straight forward and a lot more snowy. 1800's for e.g.

Shortwaves must not of existed! A lack of Blocking from 1987-2007 might be to blame but the Blocks have come back but the Snow hasn't! If you imagine us coming out of an ice age it feels that way. A melting world with a decline of Snow. You think of Snow you think of war times. A thing of the past. You hear a great relaxing song you wanna look back on old photos of snow. The world is changing and so it's the weather. What i feel anyway

How romantic!!!

[Dorsetbred]

Mornin, looking wet this morning and temps of 9.6C