Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

[Mark Parsons]

I have just checked the MetO outlook for 20th January to 3rd February, and whilst they mention the possibility of below-average temps, they also refer to the North and East, not the South and West.

I am, therefore, no longer excited.

Because the change to cold will possibly be from the Easterly quarter then the North and East is always going to be in the firing with the highest risk!

[Mark Parsons]

Ijust left there , like a group of kids in a youth club arguing and bickering over no snow showing from the models .

That's because most of them are kid's!!

[divadee]

If you don't come on here or watch a weather forecast for a couple of weeks then you might just wake up to a suprise, lol.

😄😄😄

[cerneman]

I'm keeping my fingers crossed! It just would be lovely to have a completely surprise extreme snow event thoug wouldn't it? Go to bed and then wake up to an inch or ten of snow which no one forecast. That would be heaven. â„â„â„

Sitting up to early hours, waiting for first snow flake float past lamp post, Stuff of dreams

[Mark Parsons]

Sitting up to early hours, waiting for first snow flake float past lamp post, Stuff of dreams

Did you have some freak snow on 6th Nov 12' ?? For some of us (if it snows) it will not be the first snow of the winter but it still feels like it was last winter it was that long ago!

[cerneman]

Did you have some freak snow on 6th Nov 12' ?? For some of us (if it snows) it will not be the first snow of the winter but it still feels like it was last winter it was that long ago!

Yes was surprise, All the rain afterwards dulled that memory, Just be nice to have some winter wonderland to make up for the floods and endless mud

[AWD]

A couple of ensembles for our region.

Gloucestershire;

Clear trend to colder weather, with many members offering colder solutions going forward too. Control run an FI outlier.

Similiar story.

Dorset;

Similiar to Gloucestershire, colder weather incoming.

Cornwall;

For Cornwall, quite impressive really . Op & control are colder options at 2m level but with the mean hovering around 6c, shows little Atlantic influence down there for the foreseeable.

[Mark Parsons]

Yes was surprise, All the rain afterwards dulled that memory, Just be nice to have some winter wonderland to make up for the floods and endless mud

Yes it will be nice to get away from the rain and floods, however personally speaking I am between a rock and a hard place this time of year as I am a builder with a majority of my work outdoors, so when it rains or snows I don't work, when it is to cold I don't work!!! To sum it up I would rather we had such extreme conditions or nothing at all as something a little worse than normal to me is a waste of my time and money!!!! Roll on something extreme even if it does bankrupt me.........lol!!

[fromey]

Morning all, after a cool night there is a strange yellow thing in the sky!!!

its burning my eyes!!

fromey

[AWD]

Morning all, after a cool night there is a strange yellow thing in the sky!!!

its burning my eyes!!

fromey

Sorry, I'll turn my floodlights off now.

[Polar Bear]

Well I was brave and poked my head around the Mod discussion thread door.... Seems the ECM 00z was pleasing for wintry and cold followers so the mood is good this morning. However as according to some though the Gfs needs to catch up. Now I am no weather expert but wasn't it the ECM that got up all the excitement in December? Anyway as much as I would love some wintry and colder weather ( we could do with a few bugs being killed off!!) I would like to be more on the pessimistic side this far out from next week and for that scale to be shifted to optimistic as each day to next weekend. Thereby My energy is conserved ready for a long night of lamp watching... :-) think that is fair isn't it?

[Polar Bear]

Morning all, after a cool night there is a strange yellow thing in the sky!!!

its burning my eyes!!

fromey

You've a yellow thing? Wow ... Haven't seen one for a while now ... And yep sure thing don't think it will be here today..

Don't forget the sunscreen

[gottolovethisweather]

Well I was brave and poked my head around the Mod discussion thread door.... Seems the ECM 00z was pleasing for wintry and cold followers so the mood is good this morning. However as according to some though the Gfs needs to catch up. Now I am no weather expert but wasn't it the ECM that got up all the excitement in December? Anyway as much as I would love some wintry and colder weather ( we could do with a few bugs being killed off!!) I would like to be more on the pessimistic side this far out from next week and for that scale to be shifted to optimistic as each day to next weekend. Thereby My energy is conserved ready for a long night of lamp watching... :-) think that is fair isn't it?

Yes PB, it was the ECM, amongst others that predicted the Beasterly, only for it to fail. However, this time around, the calendar reads near Mid January by the time the interest starts. February, in particular being the most productive month for Easterlies. I would most certainly prefer the easier, less stressful route to cold via a Northerly flow then backing North-East or Easterly over time. In that scenario, which is pretty much what is forecast, the cold slowly becomes entrenched. By mid next week, say Thursday, it will start to feel much cooler and by the weekend, snow is currently showing on some of the output. Ignore precipitation prospects at such a range would be my advice, indeed I would firstly, allow the simple route to cold to become reality and then hope for snow to show consistently within the forecasts.

Here's a forecast to saviour in the meanwhile.

http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess=

Fax Charts and MetO long rangers should provide some decent analysis in the days to come.

Edited January 6, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[fromey]

You've a yellow thing? Wow ... Haven't seen one for a while now ... And yep sure thing don't think it will be here today..

Don't forget the sunscreen

i wasnt expecting it today either, just watch the bbc weather and no mention of the sun popping out!

nice surprise anyway.

fromey

[Nights King]

You've a yellow thing? Wow ... Haven't seen one for a while now ... And yep sure thing don't think it will be here today..

Don't forget the sunscreen

A yellow thing...?

Would some one care to eplain to the rest of us as what this is!? I remember an old wives tale about how looking into this thing resembling a glowing orb was bad for your eyes but probably just a myth.

[cerneman]

looked in my crystal Ball this morning and saw Blizzards, Then realised was looking at my snow shaker by mistake

[Mark Parsons]

Yes PB, it was the ECM, amongst others that predicted the Beasterly, only for it to fail. However, this time around, the calendar reads near Mid January by the time the interest starts. February, in particular being the most productive month for Easterlies. I would most certainly prefer the easier, less stressful route to cold via a Northerly flow then backing North-East or Easterly over time. In that scenario, which is pretty much what is forecast, the cold slowly becomes entrenched. By mid next week, say Thursday, it will start to feel much cooler and by the weekend, snow is currently showing on some of the output. Ignore precipitation prospects at such a range would be my advice, indeed I would firstly, allow the simple route to cold to become reality and then hope for snow to show consistently within the forecasts.

Here's a forecast to saviour in the meanwhile.

http://www.netweathe...tion=10day;sess=

Fax Charts and MetO long rangers should provide some decent analysis in the days to come.

Agree with all of that, I am the old school that has seen many long periods of cold winter weather stem from gradual build ups to cold, in my opinion if the cold comes in too quick it also leaves too quick...............

[Bumpkin]

Yellow disc in the sky??? i remember in the olden days we would see that disc quite often, can't remember when I last saw it. Was chilly and foggy last night, fog has now lifted and its back to being meh.

So its ssw day, will be interesting to see what happens now.

[divadee]

Fog has all gone here. It's like Groundhog Day here again. Just blah. If its not raining monsoon type rain it's just murky, damp blah-ness.

[katemart]

Still grey here.... But I dreamed it was snowing last night and when I go up i found myself looking out of the window to check - too long in the MOD thread yesterday, i reckon!

Anybody read this? http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/nature/weather-could-every-cloud-have-a-sinister-lining-8439673.html

I enjoyed the bit about the British weather being " like an old friend whose eccentricity has hitherto been rather charming and harmless, but whose behaviour is now more erratic and disturbing."

[dancing daisy]

Is it time to get excited?

[AWD]

Is it time to get excited?

After Ian's latest post, best not get too excited just yet.

[Mark Parsons]

Is it time to get excited?

Definitely not, I would urge extreme caution until at least T60.

[Bristawl Si]

After Ian's latest post, best not get too excited just yet.

Let's hope it's because the MetO have to continue low-key because of their public duties, until things become clearer and not because they dont think it'll happen or be that serious.

[dancing daisy]

Cheers AWD & Mark. I started to get excited as Ian is generally reticent when it comes to a bit of ramping but I saw a faint ramp on Twitter, I have not seen his latest posts on here, but if his latest post suggests change then change there shall be.