Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 3rd January 2013>

[Polar Bear]

ECM, the most bullish model for cold, isn't out yet.

Just expect the unexpected. Nothing is very clear currently, as ever!

Ooh isn't it? Oh no Apologies if I got this wrong ... Clearly I must have just run for cover and not read things properly..

[AWD]

Ooh isn't it? Oh no Apologies if I got this wrong ... Clearly I must have just run for cover and not read things properly..

It's half out now and unfortunetly not as good as previous ECM output. Although, realistically that was probably an outside chance to verify anyway.

Still turning colder, but impossible to say anything with further detail at this conjecture.

Looking forward to hearing the latest from the Meto when Ian has time.

[dancing daisy]

Someone send suicide watch over to the MOD thread asap.

So is winter going to leave us with a whimper or a bang? I am confused, this is why I need to stay out of the MOD thread.

Personally speaking; crisp dry days and a bit of sunshine wouldn't go amiss to see winter out and ease us into spring, although some snow would be nice to brighten up a dull January.

[fromey]

evening all, just come from the MOD thread and Holy hell, pass the prozac!!!

some people need to re read what Ian F said a little while back about wild swings in the models.

fromey

[Bristawl Si]

evening all, just come from the MOD thread and Holy hell, pass the prozac!!!

some people need to re read what Ian F said a little while back about wild swings in the models.

fromey

Exactly!

Not many in there taking much notice.

It makes me wonder what some of 'em do with their lives actually?!

[davecornwall]

The MOD at the moment is not a very happy place, as the other guys have mentioned, and I suspect it might not get any better before Spring!

[quantock girl]

steve m just moved house must be quite stressful lets bear with him cause i and others do respect his thoughts and knowledge ..not on topic ..sorry

'bear with him as he's moved house'!! Lucky he wasn't female, would have been patted on the head and told 'there, there, hormone problems love???' lol

Dancing Daisy - Cool post on the fiery forum.

Gonna be a bumpy ride me thinks. Let's get the cold in and then worry about the snow. I'll be happy with some frosty mornings, sunny days and the chance of feet of snow......

[dancing daisy]

'bear with him as he's moved house'!! Lucky he wasn't female, would have been patted on the head and told 'there, there, hormone problems love???' lol

Dancing Daisy - Cool post on the fiery forum.

Gonna be a bumpy ride me thinks. Let's get the cold in and then worry about the snow. I'll be happy with some frosty mornings, sunny days and the chance of feet of snow......

Cheers lovely! It just annoyed me over there, it reminds me of kids in the playground fighting over the football, sometimes you just need to take the football away and give them a damn good talking to!

These are supposed to be grown ups and they are throwing their toys out of their prams all because the latest run doesn't show snow and Steve Murr is a great contributor over there and that should be respected. There is a difference between disagreeing with someone and asking them to explain themselves and being downright rude isn't there. #weathergeekworldproblems

I am expecting a flaming very soon!

Edited January 6, 2013 by dancing daisy

[Polar Bear]

Cheers lovely! It just annoyed me over there, it reminds me of kids in the playground fighting over the football, sometimes you just need to take the football away and give them a damn good talking to!

These are supposed to be grown ups and they are throwing their toys out of their prams all because the latest run doesn't show snow and Steve Murr is a great contributor over there and that should be respected. There is a difference between disagreeing with someone and asking them to explain themselves and being downright rude isn't there. #weathergeekworldproblems

I am expecting a flaming very soon!

Hey DD.

Well said over there and I added a hear hear to your post . I may get a flaming too ! Anyhow I think next week will be quite bumpy reading ... Something to do on those mild nights!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Some people on the model thread take weather too serious! Alot of idiots on there that say winters over ect as soon as a bad run comes out I think we'll see some snow next weekend - hopefully some on the 14th, be a nice present!

[Polar Bear]

Cheers lovely! It just annoyed me over there, it reminds me of kids in the playground fighting over the football, sometimes you just need to take the football away and give them a damn good talking to!

These are supposed to be grown ups and they are throwing their toys out of their prams all because the latest run doesn't show snow and Steve Murr is a great contributor over there and that should be respected. There is a difference between disagreeing with someone and asking them to explain themselves and being downright rude isn't there. #weathergeekworldproblems

I am expecting a flaming very soon!

Hey DD.

Well said over there and I added a hear hear to your post . I may get a flaming too ! Anyhow I think next week will be quite bumpy reading ... Something to do on those mild nights!

[khodds]

Sooo..... Early thoughts on summer anyone?! Lol!

[divadee]

Some on the model thread need to get out a bit more! A good walk may calm them down. I love snow as much as anyone on here and I'm like a kid at Christmas if it happens, BUT I don't lose sleep over it, it's only weather!

[quantock girl]

Sooo..... Early thoughts on summer anyone?! Lol!

Shall we look at the models??? They usually predict the forecast that far out don't they

[A.J]

......and moving along back to the regional weather discussion.......thanks

[cerneman]

Sooo..... Early thoughts on summer anyone?! Lol!

Warmer rain, Lighter nights, Maybe little more sun [ If lucky ] and 6 weeks summer holiday for the kids,

[cerneman]

Drizzle very misty tonight,,,,,Fields still with lots standing water, Sheep rather muddy and looking sheepish

[Mark Parsons]

evening all, just come from the MOD thread and Holy hell, pass the prozac!!!

some people need to re read what Ian F said a little while back about wild swings in the models.

fromey

Been banging that drum on the mod thread but no one listens, they are all insane!!

[Dorsetbred]

7.2C and everything is still wet, so much for dry highs. Oh well next couple of days look better and then back to rain.

I'm not going any further because this is the SCSERD thread and not the MOD thread

[fromey]

Been banging that drum on the mod thread but no one listens, they are all insane!!

i was going to re post Ian's post in there but im to scared!!

fromey

[Polar Bear]

In anticipation of dryer weather I have just installed the rain today app to my iPhone ... 15% chance currently of rain for me today... Bet it was off the scale a couple of weeks ago. Also bought weatherpro to keep an eye on things regionally over next few days.. Lets hope it is a good purchase

[AWD]

Those of you a little confused with the goings on in the model thread, I'll try & give a brief evaluation on this ever evolving sypnotic evolution we have before us.

First of all, in terms of the famous SSW, this has been very well forecast & has now verified. Nothing bad to say on this whatsoever. Whether we see cold or not, the SSW has verified;

Now, onto potential developments on our tiny little island. To make things clear, we have a higher than average degree of uncertainty on the forecast for the next couple of weeks. Things could evolve either in favour of cold or mild quite quickly, so I would strongly advise on getting too hooked upon various NWP output beyond T120.

As things stand currently, and again this is subject to change in the coming days, we are going to see a cool down, and conditons are going to turn colder by next weekend. This is shown clearly below in the GFS 2m temperatures;

The red line is the average temperature between all 51 ensemble members. As you can see the average temperature drops to low single figure across most of our region by next weekend. This would no doubt lead to frosts returning.

You may of heard talk about snow and "easterly" winds hitting the UK next weekend. Well, we had a couple of model runs that suggested this, most notably the ECM, and whilst this signal looked rather intriguing last night, it has now gone from tonight's output. However, I must stress that tonight's output is still of the colder than average nature, but more inclined towards anticyclonic conditions, meaning higher pressure over the UK, and frosts rather than snow more likely.

You may say its a downgrade, and were back to chasing severe cold spells at T200+ etc. Well, taken at face value, & if you really believed the ECM & smaller model output, then you are correct. But, if you step back, look at the background signals, professional forecasts & anomaly charts, nothing as really changed tonight. We are now entering a progressively colder pattern, that looks plausible to bring a below average second half of January. Remember, below average doesn't mean snowmaggedon or deep Siberian winds.

If your happy enough with a change to more seasonal weather, then the output is good for you. If you want deep cold and snow, well, even here the output isn't all too bad for you taken in context.

The key here is the minimal indication of a return to mild, wet conditons, also known as zonal conditions.

There is large support for a blocked Atlantic, this is agreed one way or another across the whole NWP output generally. Below are the anomaly pressure charts for T192;

Both show higher pressure to the north and lower pressure to the south, meaning a blocked pattern for the UK.

Also, here is a post from the model output thread that got lost between drivel and emotion. The key thing here is good agreement between the ECMWF ens & MOGREPS ens at T240;

"Cold spell in place at T+252 12Z base, MOGREPS 21/23 members, ECM 46/50 members, mostly they are northerly some an arctic ridge."

This is substantial in that these are the two main models I believe the Meto use in medium term forecasting and also this is exceptional agreement for the timescale involved. Also, the cold spells we have been chasing so far this winter, to the best I have heard, the MOGREPS model hasn't come aboard, this including the recent EC "easterly" scenario. This is the first I've heard, although in sure Ian will correct me if I'm wrong, that the MOGREPS & EC models agree on a colder medium term outlook.

Also, here are the EC De Bilt ens;

Two things to note here are;

- The Op was a clear mild outlier beyond T168

- There is a very strong signal for very cold weather beyond T168. Nothing there suggestive of mild whatsoever.

Snow, well too far out to have any realistic prospects currently. With cold air becoming ever closer to the UK, and indeed at times, over the UK, snow events could pop up at short notice at any time from next weekend onward. Too early to say currently.

I would advise you to sit back and read respected members posts and of course, the Meto forecast during this unstable time. The weather is going to get colder, that's for sure. How cold and how snowy is still unknown, and tonight's "apparent" awful output (which it isn't really) hasn't changed that.

There is great potential for snow this month, much bigger potential than we have had so far this winter. As ever though, its a slow process and there will no doubt be hiccups along the way.

It was always forecast by the knowledgable on Netweather to be the second half of January for colder prospects, and if anything, this has been reinforced tonight. The second half of January is still looking as interesting for wintry weather than ever.

It's been a poor winter for Wintery weather so far, what we got currently is some of the best output of the season so far, and it doesn't look like its going anywhere quickly either. We have had patience all winter, what's a couple more weeks?

Any questions feel free to ask.

Thanks.

Edited January 6, 2013 by AWD

[suxer]

In anticipation of dryer weather I have just installed the rain today app to my iPhone ... 15% chance currently of rain for me today... Bet it was off the scale a couple of weeks ago. Also bought weatherpro to keep an eye on things regionally over next few days.. Lets hope it is a good purchase

Your getting right into this weather malarky lately PB ,good stuff AWD brief evaluation !!!!dont think i got enough wine left to read a detailed outlook

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

Hi AWD thanks for all the background info. As someone who is unable to read charts but is trying to learn, it always amazes me how the output is interpreted in so many different ways. It's all very confusing.

It's a great help when posters give a one liner at the end of a post, as to what they think the outcome might be, whether they turn out to be right or wrong, it helps us beginners understand what the options are.

The pub run is the most confusing of all, is it drunk or sober? Posters on the MOD thread swing from bining it to framing it on the wall for posterity. Its enough to make any of us reach for the bottle!!!

[dancing daisy]

Thanks AWD, your evaluation is really useful, the model thread is so full of differing opinions it is too hard to follow.

What I really don't understand is that Ian F told everyone that the charts would be all over the place, yet it's doom & gloom and extreme highs dependant on the particular run, but these runs were expected weren't they? Also how can there be so much doom and gloom when we are talking about a weather system that is a week away. I may be a rank amateur but even I know that anything beyond T96 is subject to a lot of change, so why the in-fighting over something that is still in fl?

Thanks again